MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Recovery Extends

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Recovery Extends

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6637.80, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone and is trading closer to this week’s lows. The latest move down signals the end of a corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. Sights are on key short-term support at 1.3249. A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact and the pair is again trading higher. Price is approaching key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• A sharp pullback in Gold this week appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4046.2, has been pierced. The latest recovery in WTI futures appears corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $61.11. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery and exposes $62.34.                     
• Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in place following recent strong impulsive gains. A resumption of the uptrend  would open key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s gains strengthens the bullish condition. The contract is through its recent high of 93.17, the Oct 17 high. 

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1663/1728 50-day EMA / High Oct 17 and key resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1607 @ 06:23 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The move down this week in EURUSD has exposed key short-term support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish signal and a move lower would instead confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Sep 17. This would open 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Price needs to break above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to reinstate a bull theme.           

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present      

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3402/3471 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 1.3315 @ 06:33 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone and is trading closer to this week’s lows. The latest move down signals the end of a corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. Sights are on key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance is at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.               

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish       

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 & 17 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8709 @ 07:28 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 0.8681/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The underlying trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and initial support levels are holding for now. The first support to monitor lies at 0.8680, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger remains at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger 

• RES 4: 155.55 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing  
• RES 1: 153.27 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 153.03 @ 07:11 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 151.82 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 150.70 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 149.30 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 147.82 High Oct 3

A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact and the pair is again trading higher. Price is approaching key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. This would open 153.82, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. First important support to watch lies at 150.70, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme   

• RES 4: 180.75 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 177.62 @ 07:57 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 175.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17  
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 

The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest recovery reinforces bullish conditions. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A breach of 177.94, the Oct 9 high and the bull trigger would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.60, the 20-day EMA. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6543 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.650 0@ 16:19 BST Oct 23
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. Attention is on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that moving average studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6542, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.       

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4005 @ 08:50 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.3979/3907 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3829 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19 
• SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger

USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3907, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3979.     

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact               

• RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger    
• PRICE: 129.90 @ 05:37 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 129.76 Low Oct 20       
• SUP 2: 129.43 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 129.04 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in place following recent strong impulsive gains. A resumption of the uptrend  would open key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract remains in overbought territory, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.43, the 20-day EMA.               

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support    

• RES 4: 119.780 High Apr 22 (cont)       
• RES 3: 119.600 High May 7 (cont)  
• RES 2: 119.250 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Aug 15 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 1: 118.970/119.000 High Oct 17 / Round number resistance   
• PRICE: 118.510 @ 06:12 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 118.450 Low Oct 15  
• SUP 2: 118.309 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 117.880 Low Oct 9   
• SUP 4: 117.710 Low Oct 6 

Bobl futures remain below the Oct 17 high. Recent impulsive gains reinforce the uptrend that started Sep 25 and this has opened the 119.00 handle next. A break of this level would expose 119.25, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the contract is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 118.309. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would undermine a bullish theme. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Approaching Support At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 107.400 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.365 High Jul 7 (cont) 
• RES 2: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 107.235/320 High Oct 22 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 107.150 @ 06:35 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 117.122 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 107.030 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 106.995 Low Oct 8 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact following recent gains and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. The contract has breached 107.190, the Oct 5 and 8 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 107.348 next, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Note that the contract is overbought. The move down is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at 107.122, the 20-day EMA.          

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme         

• RES 4: 94.24 1.618proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance        
• RES 2: 93.95 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 93.93 High Oct 22   
• PRICE: 93.70 @ 08:31 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 93.17/92.26 High Oct 17 / Low Oct 16      
• SUP 2: 91.99 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13    

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s gains strengthens the bullish condition. The contract is through its recent high of 93.17, the Oct 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 91.99, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Set-Up     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 121.60 @ Close Oct 23
• SUP 1: 121.22 Low Oct 15          
• SUP 2: 120.88 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

Bullish trend conditions in BTP futures remain intact and recent gains reinforce the current uptrend. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Sequence  

• RES 4: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5717.00 High Oct 21       
• PRICE: 5705.00 @ 07:44 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 5608.89 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5525. 61-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5601.40, the 20-day EMA.          

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6812.25 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 6794.75 @ 07:55 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 6637.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6637.80, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level and the 50-day EMA would undermine a bull theme. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends         

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30 
• RES 1: $66.58 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $65.59 @ 08:10 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $60.07 - Low Oct 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Brent futures traded higher Thursday and this has resulted in a breach of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at $65.12. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery and sights are on $66.58, the Oct 9 high. A move above this price point would expose key resistance at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.07, the Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.34 - High Oct 8    
• PRICE: $61.43 @ 08:16 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The latest recovery in WTI futures appears corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $61.11. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery and exposes $62.34 next, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20.    

GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Trend Condition        

• RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and the bull trigger                
• PRICE: $4088.4 @ 08:35 BST Oct24
• SUP 1: $4004.3 - Low Oct 22  
• SUP 2: $3944.9 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 4: $3796.7 - 50-day EMA  

A sharp pullback in Gold this week appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4046.2, has been pierced. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at $3821.0. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                   

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $52.622/54.480 - High Oct 21 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $48.340 @ 08:39 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $47.550 - Low Oct 22  
• SUP 2: $45.417 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver are bullish and the latest sharp pullback is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $48.992, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a corrective pullback towards the 50-day EMA, at $45.417. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high.