MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Pressure Persists

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Pressure Persists

• The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00.
• The latest pullback in GBPUSD, for now, appears corrective and a bullish condition remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg. USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bearish threat is present as the pair trades closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger S/T reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal.
• Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. The contract traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Friday and Monday’s sell-off confirmed a bearish start to the week, strengthening current conditions. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1633 @ 06:06 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.1588 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

A consolidation mode dominates for now in EURUSD. The trend set up however, remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1588, the 50-day EMA. Major support rests at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3595 High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3476 @ 06:22 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.3462 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.3449 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Low Aug 11  
• SUP 4: 1.3346 Low Aug 7     

The latest pullback in GBPUSD, for now, appears corrective and a bullish condition remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Clearance of this level would strengthen the S/T bull theme. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3449, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.  

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28  
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8650 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8630 @ 06:49 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is unchanged. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. Note too that the cross has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8616. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance and bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Trendline Support

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
• PRICE: 147.31 @ 07:13 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.47 100-dma
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug Upleg

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bearish threat is present as the pair trades closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger S/T reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. This would open 144.69, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a bull signal.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.47 @ 07:52 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 170.26 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The underlying bull trend in EURJPY remains intact and for now, short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.26. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a primary uptrend. Clearance of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support  

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6500 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6444 @ 08:14 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is off its most recent highs and has again traded lower, today. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish highlighted by MA studies that remain in a bull-mode position. However, the pair is approaching support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would expose support at 0.6373, Jun 23 low and an important support. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6625, the Aug 24 high.   

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3884 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3871 @ 08:20 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.3759/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 
• SUP 3: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

A strong rally yesterday in USDCAD and today’s print above resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This also negates a recent bearish threat. An extension and a clear breach of 1.3879, would signal scope for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3759, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Still Present 

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 129.89/130.06 50-day EMA / High Aug 14   
• RES 2: 129.58 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.18 High Aug 18  
• PRICE: 129.10 @ 05:42 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. The contract traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.89, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.58.  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.514 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.356 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.200 @ 06:00 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights a bearish threat, once again. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.849, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is 117.514, the 50-day EMA. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Southbound

• RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 107.178 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.099 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.035 @ 06:24 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the current downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Initial resistance is 107.099, the 20-day EMA. 

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle 

• RES 4: 92.84 High Aug 5 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11       
• RES 2: 91.94 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 91.32/68 High Aug 18 / 15
• PRICE: 90.67 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 90.43 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)       

Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Friday and Monday’s sell-off confirmed a bearish start to the week, strengthening current conditions. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 90.11, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 91.94, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.39 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5501.00 High Aug 19 
• PRICE: 5466.00 @ 06:46 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 5382.93 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5355.64 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5249.00 Low Aug 5   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5355.64, the 50-day EMA. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
• PRICE: 6411.75 @ 07:26 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 6402.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6282.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6402.75, the 20-day EMA, and 6282.00, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness 

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.26 @ 07:05 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.36 - High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $62.28 @ 07:20 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.91, the 50-day EMA. 

GOLD TECHS: In  A Range

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3324.2 @ 07:25 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.             

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.177 @ 08:23 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $37.090/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.090. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.