MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Bull Cycle Intact, For Now

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Bull Cycle Intact – For Now

• A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6621.98, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and Monday's gains reinforce this theme. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend.
• The latest recovery in EURUSD signals a potential reversal and undermines a recent bearish theme, suggesting the corrective cycle between Sep 17 - Oct 9, may be over. The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Recent strength above resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and price is holding on to its recent gains. The latest climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a Fibonacci projection point. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s high, however, a bull cycle remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance at 130.80. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following the latest strong impulsive rally. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break strengthened a bull cycle and sights are on 93.30 next, a Fibonacci projection.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1730 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.1635 @ 06:01 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 1.1602/1542 Low Oct 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The latest recovery in EURUSD signals a potential reversal and undermines a recent bearish theme, suggesting the corrective cycle between Sep 17 - Oct 9, may be over. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - for now - highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1775 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low.          

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance Around The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3487 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.3391 @ 06:14 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 1.3317/3249 Low Oct 15 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

Recent gains in GBPUSD appear corrective - for now. However, price has recently pierced resistance around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3448. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and expose resistance at 1.3527, the Oct 1 high and a pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is 1.3249, the Oct 14 low.             

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish            

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 & 17 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8691 @ 06:33 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 0.8679/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to monitor lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8679. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Hammer Candle Reversal Signal 

• RES 4: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 152.61/153.27 High Oct 14 / 10 and the bull trigger   
• RES 1: 151.88 High Oct 15 
• PRICE: 151.54 @ 07:12 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 149.38 Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: 148.94 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 147.82 High Oct 3  
• SUP 4: 147.14 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

The recovery from last Friday’s low in USDJPY is beginning to highlight a stronger bullish signal. The pair has found support below the 20-day EMA and note that Friday’s price pattern is a hammer candle formation. If correct, the pattern signals the end of a corrective pullback that started Oct 10, and  highlights the fact that support at the 50-day EMA, at 148.94, remains intact. The bull trigger is at 153.27, the Oct 10 high. The 50-day EMA is key support.   

EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend  

• RES 4: 180.44 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 176.00 @ 07:51 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 175.22 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart 
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Recent strength above resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.22, the 20-day EMA - a level pierced last Friday. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Candle Pattern Highlights A Potential Reversal

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6548 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6497 @ 07:58 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6548, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal signal and reinstate a bear threat.       

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Cycle   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4061 @ 08:08 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 1.3972/3895 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3818 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3895, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3972.     

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback                

• RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 130.59 High Oct 17    
• PRICE: 130.00 @ 05:39 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 129.68/129.44 Low Oct 15 / High Sep 10       
• SUP 2: 129.20 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 128.86 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s high, however, a bull cycle remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.20, the 20-day EMA.               

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 119.780 High Apr 22 (cont)       
• RES 3: 119.600 High May 7 (cont)  
• RES 2: 119.250 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Aug 15 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 1: 118.970/119.000 High Oct 17 / Round number resistance   
• PRICE: 118.590 @ 05:47 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 118.330 Low Oct 13  
• SUP 2: 118.201 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 117.880 Low Oct 9   
• SUP 4: 117.710 Low Oct 6 

Bobl futures are trading below last week’s high. A strong rally last week reinforces the uptrend that started Sep 25. Sights are on the 119.00 handle next. A break of this level would open 119.25, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the contract is in overbought territory, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 118.201. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would undermine the bullish theme. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Overbought But Uptrend Is Intact      

• RES 4: 107.400 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.365 High Jul 7 (cont) 
• RES 2: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 107.320 High Oct 17  
• PRICE: 107.200 @ 06:05 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 107.150/098 Low Oct 15 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 107.030 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 106.995 Low Oct 8 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact following recent gains and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of 107.190, the Oct 5 and 8 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 107.348 next, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Note that the contract is overbought. A deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at 107.098, the 20-day EMA.          

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact         

• RES 4: 93.76 High Jul 1 (cont)   
• RES 3: 93.41 High Jul 2 (cont)       
• RES 2: 93.30 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 93.17 High Oct 17 
• PRICE: 92.67 @ Close Oct 20
• SUP 1: 92.07 Low Oct 15      
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: 91.51 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13    

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following the latest strong impulsive rally. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break strengthened a bull cycle and sights are on 93.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is overbought and a retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 91.51, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 121.57 @ Close Oct 20
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level         
• SUP 2: 120.59 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High  

• RES 4: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5717.00 Intraday high       
• PRICE: 5699.00 @ 06:33 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 5585.83 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5506.59 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and Monday's gains reinforce this theme. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5585.83, the 20-day EMA.          

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Support Intact     

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6812.25 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 6768.50 @ 07:23 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 6621.98 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6621.98, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure         

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.35 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $61.18 @ 07:08 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: $60.00 - Psychological round number  
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The trend structure in Brent futures remains bearish and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions . Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on the psychological $60.00 handle where a break would open $58.50, the May 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $65.35, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present   

• RES 4: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
• RES 1: $61.76 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $57.60 @ 07:05 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: $56.35 - Low Oct 20 
• SUP 2: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.05 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.76, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 26 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains t        

• RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4381.5 - High Oct 20               
• PRICE: $4325.1 @ 07:23 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: $4140.8 - Low Oct 15 
• SUP 2: $4021.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 4: $3783.3 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and price is holding on to its recent gains. The latest climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down - a correction - would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $4021.6, the 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence    

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.567 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing    
• PRICE: $51.617 @ 08:11 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: $49.089 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $44.996 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver are bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high again, last Friday. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $54.567, a Fibonacci projection, and the $55.00 handle. Note that the trend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is $49.089, the 20-day EMA.