MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Bear Cycle Remains in Play

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Bear Cycle Remains in Play

• The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high is for now, considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 5374.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat.
• The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. However, the pair is trading just ahead of a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1599. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. USDJPY is trading inside a range and a bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend. EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The trend structure remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.56.
• Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. A bear threat remains present. The contract recently breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and yesterday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Pivot Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1616 @ 06:10 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.1599/1.1528 50-day EMA / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. However, the pair is trading just ahead of a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1599. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Signal Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
• PRICE: 1.3450 @ 06:25 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A rally on Aug 22 in GBPUSD continues to signal the end of the recent corrective phase - last Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.      

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present    

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8674 High Aug 25 
• PRICE: 0.8636 @ 06:45 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Short-term gains in EURGBP are considered corrective - for now. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. On the downside, note that recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. The cross has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8622. A clear breach of these supports would highlight a stronger bear reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. 

USDJPY TECHS: In A Range 

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.78/149.12 High Aug 22 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 147.82 @ 06:58 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 144.91 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY is trading inside a range and a bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. 

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.65 @ 07:12 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 170.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The trend structure remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.56. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97, a break would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains 

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6524 High Aug 18 
• PRICE: 0.6485 @ 07:56 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is holding on to its latest gains following the recovery from last week’s low. The rally signals the end of the recent corrective phase. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.6625, the Aug 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would resume the bear leg.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
• RES 1: 1.3925 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.3841 @ 08:03 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.3807 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3777/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 7
• SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger 

A bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. The recent breach of resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, continues to highlight a bullish phase. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, strengthening the current uptrend. An extension higher would signal scope for 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.3775, the 50-day EMA. A break of the EMA would signal a reversal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Intact   

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 130.06 High Aug 14   
• RES 2: 129.78 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.55 High Aug 21 and 22  
• PRICE: 129.45 @ 05:49 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. A bear threat remains present. The contract recently breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle represents the base of a broad range. A clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.78, is required to signal a reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective  

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.470 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.430 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 117.400 @ 05:59 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures have recovered from their recent lows. However, a bearish theme remains intact. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights a bearish threat and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.840, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 117.470, the 50-day EMA. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Intact 

• RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 107.153 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.100 High Aug 21 
• PRICE: 107.070 @ 05:43 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 106.970 Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday and 106.985, the Aug 15 low, has been pierced. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.078, the 20-day EMA. 

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme 

• RES 4: 92.15 High Aug 11  
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14       
• RES 2: 91.45 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance 
• PRICE: 90.41 @ Close Aug 25
• SUP 1: 90.25 Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 90.0089.99/ Psychological round number / Low Apr 9 (cont)
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)       

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and yesterday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.25, the Aug 26 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) In A Range      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.36 @ Close Aug 26
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the direction remains up. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Approaching Support  

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5522.00 High Aug 22 
• PRICE: 5409.00 @ 06:36 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 5384.00 Low Aug 26 
• SUP 2: 5374.47 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and a key support   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high is for now, considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 5374.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.  

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6586.68 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
• PRICE: 6486.00 @ 07:26 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6311.73.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at  6311.73, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish  

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.98/72.83 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.21 @ 07:15 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Despite the latest recovery - a correction - a bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High AUg 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.20 @ 07:22 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. 

GOLD TECHS: Medium-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3380.9 @ 07:30 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $3311.6/3268.2 - Low Aug 20 / Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.             

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bull-Mode Position

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.448 @ 08:07 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $37.334/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and remain bullish. Prices have recently recovered off support around the 50-day EMA, now at $37.334. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, the latest resumption of gains opens the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.