MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Weakness Still Corrective

Price Signal Summary – GBP Weakness Still Seen as Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
• GBPUSD continues to trade at its recent lows. The trend set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The next key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3481. USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3755, remains intact.                      
• Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.27. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.           
• Bund futures have traded lower this week, extending the current bear leg. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a continuation of the bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play                       

• RES 4: 1.1985 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1679 @ 06:14 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.1657 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1628 Low Jul 10
• SUP 3: 1.1590 Low Jun 25  
• SUP 4: 1.1487-day EMA

EURUSD has traded lower this week. The downleg this month appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish - moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term bull cycle. Furthermore,  corrections have been shallow, reinforcing the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Support to watch is 1.1657, the 20-day EMA. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3561 @ 06:42 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.3526 Low Jul 08
• SUP 2: 1.3481 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3409 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3371 Low Jun 23

GBPUSD continues to trade at its recent lows. The trend set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The next key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3481. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the medium-term uptrend is intact.           

EURGBP TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact   

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
• RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8611 @ 06:56 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7 
• SUP 2: 0.8573/8520 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish. The recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A resumption of gains and a confirmation of the flag would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8573, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains    

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.18 High Jul 9 
• PRICE: 146.89 @ 07:05 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 145.83 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 145.11 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Note too that 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.11, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish. 

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure   

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.38 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• PRICE: 171.49 @ 07:54 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 170.81  Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 169.18 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20   
• SUP 4: 166.66 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY remains intact, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.38, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 169.18, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6585 @ 08:00 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 0.6529 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6481/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s climb reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows r. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6481, the 50-day EMA.     

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South      

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3755 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3695 @ 08:05 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3755, remains intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play                            

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 130.76/131.33 High Jul 4 / High Jun 20
• RES 1: 130.10/130.41 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.60 @ 05:46 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 129.38 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 129.30 Low May 22
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 4: 128.90 Low Apr 10 

Bund futures have traded lower this week, extending the current bear leg. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a continuation of the bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.41, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Extends                         

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 117.705 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 117.480 @ 06:06 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 117.330 Low Jul 10  
• SUP 2: 117.210 1.000 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support       

This week’s move down in Bobl futures has resulted in a breach of support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. Scope is seen for a move towards 117.210, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is 117.705, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to signal a possible reversal. This would refocus attention on 118.060, the Jun 20 high.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout                               

• RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
• RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.264 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 107.205 @ 06:37 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 107.165 Low Jul 10    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures have traded lower this week and Thursday's sell-off resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. The break also highlights a range breakout and strengthens a short-term bearish theme. This opens 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.365, the Jun 7 high, is required to signal a possible reversal. Initial resistance is 107.264, the 20-day EMA.                                                              

GILT TECHS: (U5) Remains In A Bear Cycle                          

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4      
• RES 2: 92.40 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 91.98 High Jul 8 
• PRICE: 91.94 @ 08:03 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 91.42 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg    
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.40, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 120.36 @ 07:12 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the bull cycle would open the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23  low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Has Pierced The Bull Trigger    

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• PRICE: 5445.00 @ 06:43 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 5355.20 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7, and would open the 5500.00 handle. On the downside key support has been defined at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6335.50 High Jul 10    
• PRICE: 6307.75 @ 07:23 BST Jul 11  
• SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 2: 6190.81/6044.35 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6044.35.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed   

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $68.87 @ 07:06 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and the latest round of gains appear corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Recent Gains Considered Corrective           

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.90 @ 07:16 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: $65.09/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.27. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3          
• PRICE: $3341.2 @ 07:20 BST Jul 11 
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.          

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High                     

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.452 - Intraday high    
• PRICE: $37.346 @ 08:18 BST Jul 11  
• SUP 1: $36.291 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.209 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $32.615 - Low May 22 
• SUP 4: $31.651 - Low May 15 and a key support 

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has pierced a key S/T resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. A clear break of this price point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.291, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.209, the 50-day EMA.