MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Vol Keeps Focus on Res

Price Signal Summary – GBP Vol Keeps Focus on Resistance

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and Thursday’s selloff appears corrective - for now. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 6729.38. A clear break of the EMA, and of support at 6655.50, the Nov 7 low, would highlight a short-term reversal. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Note that the sharp pullback Thursday appears to be a correction - for now.
• A key short-term resistance in GBPUSD at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3212, remains intact for now. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective phase and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3314. USDJPY is holding on to its latest gains. The trend structure remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The pair has breached 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger. A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact for now following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4162 - provided a firm resistance.
• Gold is trading closer to this week’s high. The downleg since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. A sell-off in WTI futures on Thursday, strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
• A strong sell-off in Bund futures yesterday reinforces the current corrective bearish condition and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, highlights a resumption of the bear leg. A continuation would pave the way for a move towards 128.52. Gilt futures have gapped sharply lower. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. 

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance         

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1640 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The latest rally in EURUSD has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening the short-term bullish theme. A continuation would expose 1.1669, the Oct 28 high and the next important resistance. It is still possible that the climb since Nov 5 is a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA          

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3314 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3212/16 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3152 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.3085/10 Low Nov 12 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

A key short-term resistance in GBPUSD at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3212, remains intact for now. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective phase and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3314. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal would signal the end of the correction and a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 1.2971, a Fibonacci projection.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8859 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8853 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 0.8773 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 0.8730 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

Bullish conditions in EURGBP remain intact and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8773, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight a possible short-term reversal.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 155.04 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 154.54 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 153.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.16 Low Oct 30   
• SUP 3: 151.31 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

USDJPY is holding on to its latest gains. The trend structure remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The pair has breached 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 153.17, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition 

• RES 4: 181.70 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 179.95 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 179.91 @ 07:33 GMT Nov 14 
• SUP 1: 177.52/175.84 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 174.19 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and gains this week reinforce current conditions. The latest move higher has resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 180.37, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 174.19, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Pattern 

• RES 4: 0.6649 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6580 High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6527 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 14 
• SUP 1: 0.6515/6459 Low Nov 11 / 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

AUDUSD posted a strong initial rally on Thursday, before reversing into the close. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme, however, note that Thursday’s activity also highlights a potential bearish candle pattern - a shooting star (inverted hammer). Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A break of this level would cancel the candle pattern. A sell-off would instead expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.         

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Theme Inside A Bull Channel      

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4140/62 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 1: 1.4057 High Nov 10  
• PRICE: 1.4039 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 1.3962 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3886 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact for now following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4162 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11, highlighting scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3886. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.3962, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle Low                 

• RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
• RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 129.40 High Nov 13     
• PRICE: 128.70 @ 8:23 GMT Nov 14 
• SUP 1: 128.66 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support  

A strong sell-off in Bund futures yesterday reinforces the current corrective bearish condition and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, highlights a resumption of the bear leg. A continuation would pave the way for a move towards 128.52, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. A clear break of this level would signal a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase.               

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Extends     

• RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22   
• RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 118.166 20-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 117.870 @ 08:23 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 117.850 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6   
• SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1 

The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.166, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a possible reversal.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Leg Extension       

• RES 4: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 107.235 High Oct 22
• RES 2: 107.175 High Oct 24
• RES 1: 107.055/082 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• PRICE: 106.975 @ 08:24 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 106.965 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 106.960 Low Oct 2  
• SUP 3: 106.945 Low Oct 1
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces bearish conditions. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 106.960, the Oct 2 low. Scope is also seen for a test of  106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support point. Initial resistance to watch is 107.055, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 107.082. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term resistance zone.            

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle Extends              

• RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 93.16 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 92.75 Low Nov 10 
• RES 1: 92.51 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 92.42 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 92.07 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
• SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg  

Gilt futures have gapped sharply lower. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.75, the Nov 10 low. On the downside, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme.         

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish       

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.92 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. The move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern and this reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5853.50 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 1: 5825.00 High Nov 13      
• PRICE: 5731.00 @ 06:32 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1:5714.00 Low Nov 13   
• SUP 2: 5676.84 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5600.97 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 5593.50 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low    

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Note that the sharp pullback Thursday appears to be a correction - for now. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 5853.50 next, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 5676.84, the 20-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Monitoring Support            

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger 
• RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12 
• RES 1: 6809.52 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 6754.25 @ 06:29 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 6729.38 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 6655.50 Low Nov 7 & key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and Thursday’s selloff appears corrective - for now. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 6729.38. A clear break of the EMA, and of support at 6655.50, the Nov 7 low, would highlight a short-term reversal and signal scope for a deeper correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6900.50, the Nov 12 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Still Intact For Now           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.85 @ 07:04 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A sell-off in Brent futures on Wednesday highlights a bearish development. An extension lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Trading Below Resistance         

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.56 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 14 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures on Thursday, strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                  
• PRICE: $4167.9 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 14 
• SUP 1: $4055.7 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $3921.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 3800.00 Round number support

Gold is trading closer to this week’s high. The downleg since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. Key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3921.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would pave the way for a test of $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.                    

SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $82.865 @ 08:26 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $49.501 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $47.139/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price is approaching key resistance and the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $47.139. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.