MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Trend Direction Remains Up

Price Signal Summary – GBP Trend Direction Remains Higher

• A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Monday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. The extension down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. AUDUSD traded higher Monday and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. A key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.          
• The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.   
• Bund futures are unchanged and continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play and the pullback between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. A fresh S/T cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures between Apr 7 - 9 continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High            

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21 
• PRICE: 1.1529 @ 06:04 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.1383 Low Apr 21     
• SUP 2: 1.1140 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0898 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The trend in EURUSD remains bullish and Monday’s cycle high reinforces current conditions and highlights a bullish start to this week’s session. The break higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a continued dominant uptrend. The focus is on 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1140.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22  
• RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3422 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.3410 @ 06:23 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.3260/3207 Low Apr 21 / High Apr 3 1 
• SUP 2: 1.3075 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2907 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10 

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Monday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434 next, the Sep 26 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.3075, the 20-day EMA.    

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact       

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 1: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:55 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 0.8520 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8477 61.8% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally  
• SUP 3: 0.8442 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. The retracement has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 0.8520, the 20-day EMA. Below this level, support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8442. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends    

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3    
• RES 3: 148.03 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 145.25 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 142.25/143.28 High Apr 21 / 16   
• PRICE: 139.99 @ 06:47 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.07  LowJul 28 ‘23
• SUP 4: 137.85 1.618 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. The extension down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 145.25.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish   

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.55 @ 07:32 GMT Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 161.18/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and key support   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective - for now - and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance  

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6439 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6424 @ 08:11 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 0.6370/6291 Low Apr 21 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

AUDUSD traded higher Monday and the pair is holding on to its latest gains . A key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on  0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6291, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.         

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4180 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/4052 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3812 @ 08:16 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

A bearish theme in USDCAD remains intact for now. Fresh trend lows continue to highlight a resumption of the downtrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4052, the 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Trend Structure Intact                    

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance               
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance       
• RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 131.83 High Apr 17                     
• PRICE: 131.65 @ 05:39 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 130.87/130.14 Low Apr 17 / 20-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

Bund futures are unchanged and continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play and the pullback between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. A fresh S/T cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56 next, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break below this level would alter the picture.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North            

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.660 Intraday high                                     
• PRICE: 119.610 @ 05:55 BST Apr 22  
• SUP 1: 119.030 Low Apr 17       
• SUP 2: 118.595 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 18.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

Bobl futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest highs. Recent weakness appears corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.595.                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Approaching The Bull Trigger                                

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.700 Intraday high                   
• PRICE: 107.670 @ 06:24 BST Apr 22     
• SUP 1: 107.370 Low Apr 17  
• SUP 2: 107.259 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone and sights are on 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. The recent pullback between Apr 7 - 9, appears corrective. Clearance of 107.775 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Firm support to watch lies at 107.259, the 20-day EMA.                                                        

GILT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Gains                   

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off        
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 92.63 High Apr 8                          
• PRICE: 92.28 @ 08:01 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15                                      
• SUP 2: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9  
• SUP 3: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)     
• SUP 4: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support (con) 

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures between Apr 7 - 9 continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of it would open key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low (cont). Initial resistance is 92.63, Apr 8 high.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook                                  

• RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing      
• RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28    
• RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4 
• RES 1: 119.69 High Apr 17              
• PRICE: 119.53 @ 07:08 BST Apr 22  
• SUP 1: 118.25 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

BTP futures rallied sharply higher last week. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of the Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels a recent bearish threat. Note too that, 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg, has been cleared - a bullish development. This opens 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 118.25, the 20-day EMA.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle        

• RES 4: 5270.00 High Apr 1  
• RES 3: 5113.20 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5001.00 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 49.78.63 20-day EMA              
• PRICE: 4843.00 @ 07:04 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 4664.00 Low Apr 10                      
• SUP 2: 4575.45 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4978.63, the 20-day EMA, and 5113.20, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.             

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bear Threat Remains Present                

• RES 4: 5773.25 High Apr 2    
• RES 3: 5652.57 50-day EMA        
• RES 2: 5528.75 High Apr 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5437.24 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5205.75 @ 06:54 BST Apr 22   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 

A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. The latest move down signals the end of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5437.24, the 20-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play     

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $69.95/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.14 - High Apr 17            
• PRICE: $66.67 @ 07:06 BST Apr 22  
• SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade above the Apr 9 low and maintain a firmer short-term tone. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $68.14, the Apr 17 high. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $69.95.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                              

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $66.22/71.76 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.49 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $62.88 @ 07:20 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: $58.29/54.67 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.                

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                         

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3500.1 - Intraday high       
• PRICE: $3468.6 @ 08:24 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: $3331.5 - Low Apr 21  
• SUP 2: $3163.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 4: $3033.3 - 50-day EMA 

The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3499.0, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 3163.5, the 20-day EMA.                         

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains          

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg                                       
• PRICE: $32.476 @ 08:23 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger                
• SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24 
• SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support   

Silver is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.269. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.