MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Pullback Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Pullback in GBP Deemed Corrective

• The latest recovery in the e-mini S&P reinforces current bullish conditions.The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 5620.87. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and Friday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, a Fibonacci retracement point. 
• The latest pullback in GBPUSD is considered corrective. A bearish tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Support to watch lies at 1.3225, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and last Thursday’s rally reinforces current trend conditions. The cross has pierced key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south. A fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term.
• A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. Gold is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The yellow metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11.
• Bund futures traded lower Friday and remain below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle is in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play              

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1337 @ 05:57 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.1264 20-day EMA and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.1144 High APr 3    
• SUP 3: 1.1036 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play. The trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position  signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1264. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 1.3304 @ 06:18 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.3257 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.3225 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041/3035 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The latest pullback in GBPUSD is considered corrective. A bearish tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Support to watch lies at 1.3225, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. 

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8528 @ 06:30 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.8480 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 0.8477/65 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has recovered from its latest lows, however a sell-on-rallies theme last week could cap gains and keep focus on the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8465. It is still possible the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. 

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
• RES 2: 146.60 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
• PRICE: 144.16 @ 06:45 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 142.88/141.97 Low MAy 1 / Apr 29   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

Recent gains in USDJPY resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA, undermining the bear trend. However, price action remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.60. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective.  Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 165.88 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 163.46 @ 07:01 GMT May 5
• SUP 1: 162.37 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 161.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22   
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9 

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and last Thursday’s rally reinforces current trend conditions. The cross has pierced key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.65, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull cycle. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6488 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6468 @ 07:56 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.6356/6321 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD has traded higher today as the pair starts the week on a bullish note. The breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, marks the end of the recent pause in the bull cycle and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6321, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: New Cycle Low

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4076 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3923 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3813 @ 08:00 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south. A fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3923, the 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Corrective Pullback                      

• RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing                 
• RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance      
• RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger                    
• PRICE: 130.87 @ 05:35 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 130.50/129.92 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11          
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

Bund futures traded lower Friday and remain below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle is in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break of this level would alter the picture.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support               

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.110 @ 05:56 BST May 5 
• SUP 1: 119.072 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 118.622 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. On the downside, firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.996.                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend                                 

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22                   
• PRICE: 107.400 @ 05:56 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 107.395 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at 107.370, the Apr 17 low.                                                        

BTP TECHS: (M5) Bullish Theme                                   

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 119.92 @ Close May 2 
• SUP 1: 119.60/119.25 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

BTP futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.25, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extension           

• RES 4: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20 
• RES 2: 5341.00 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 5263.01 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg
• PRICE: 5228.00 @ 06:22 BST May 5 
• SUP 1: 5047.580 20-day EMA                      
• SUP 2: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4664.00 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger    

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and Friday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 5341.00, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch lies at 5047.80, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Clears The 50-Day EMA                

• RES 4: 5865.42 200-dma     
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2       
• RES 1: 5724.75 High May 2                               
• PRICE: 5674.25 @ 07:24 BST May 3 
• SUP 1: 5511.99 20-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger

The latest recovery in the e-mini S&P reinforces current bullish conditions.The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 5620.87. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $64.91/67.67 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $59.43 @ 06:44 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and today’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.67. Initial resistance is at $64.91, the 20-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (M5) Momentum Shifts Lower

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $61.94/64.61 - 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• PRICE: $56.58 @ 07:14 BST May 5 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $64.61, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Support                         

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3259.6 @ 07:19 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $3202.0 - Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The yellow metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.0, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.  

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish           

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.385 @ 08:07 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 2
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforced the current bullish theme. This suggests the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Price has traded below support at $322.443, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the latest uptrend.