MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Pierces Resistance

Price Signal Summary – GBP Pierces Resistance

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• GBPUSD is trading higher and the pair has pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for an extension towards 1.3510. USDJPY is trading lower today extending the reversal that started May 12. The pullback signals the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22 and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 1.3744.
• Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today and maintain a bullish theme. However, the recovery since Apr 9, still appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.87, the 50-day EMA. 
• Bund futures are still trading closer to their recent highs. Recent gains  undermine a bearish theme and suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposed 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would pave the way for an extension. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends                 

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1381 High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1329 @ 06:06 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.1236 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1109/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is trading higher this week, extending the bounce that started May 12. Trend conditions remain bullish and moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery suggests the Apr 21 - May 12 correction is over. Sights are on 1.1381 next, the May 2 - 6 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.1109, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High  

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3469 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 1.3449 @ 07:58 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.3282 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3140/37 Lows May 12 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD is trading higher and the pair has pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for an extension towards 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection point. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3137, the 50-day EMA. 

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8438 @ 06:27 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

 A bearish theme in EURGBP remains in play. The cross remains below  0.8456, the 50-day EMA, and scope is seen for a continuation lower near-term. The 0.8400 handle has been pierced, an extension of the bear leg would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection. Key near-term resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Reversal Extends  

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• RES 1: 146.16 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.76 @ 07:09 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 143.45 Low May 8      
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY is trading lower today extending the reversal that started May 12. The pullback signals the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22 and marks a resumption of the downtrend. A continuation lower would expose 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 145.11, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 146.16, 50-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.75 @ 07:56 GMT May 21
• SUP 1: 162.28/15 50-day EMA / Low May 19      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high and is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness is considered corrective. However, the cross has tested a key support at 162.28, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Point North 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6451 @ 08:01 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.6362 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6362, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend  

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 1.4016/17 High May 12 / 13 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3892 @ 08:10 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch is 1.4017, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.4111, the Apr 4 high. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Remains Above Support                         

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.75 Intraday high                     
• PRICE: 130.07 @ 05:39 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 129.72/13 Low May 19 / 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

Bund futures are still trading closer to their recent highs. Recent gains  undermine a bearish theme and suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. An extension higher would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86 next, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for a move towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 129.13, the May 15 low.                                            

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support                   

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.950 High May 20                                     
• PRICE: 118.650 @ 06:06 BST May 21 
• SUP 1: 118.420 Low May 19        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery from last week’s low in Bobl futures signals a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A continuation higher would open 118.950 next, the May 12 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact                                     

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.335 High May 12 / 20                  
• PRICE: 107.255 @ 06:15 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

Despite recent gains, a  bearish theme in Schatz futures remains intact for now. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Remains Present                    

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 92.53 High May 9      
• RES 2: 92.10 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 92.03 High May 16                            
• PRICE: 90.85 @ 08:10 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 90.72 Intraday low                                          
• SUP 2: 90.47 Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    
• SUP 4: 89.42 1.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - May 2 price swing     

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposed 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would pave the way for an extension towards 90.47, the Apr 11 low. Resistance to watch is 92.30, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would be bullish and signal a potential reversal.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 120.02 @ Close May 20 
• SUP 1: 119.18/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase continues to signal potential for a pullback. Key support at 119.21, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, a continuation of the latest bounce would refocus attention on key resistance at 120.72, the May 8 high. A break of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Approaching Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5459.00 @ 06:37 BST May 21 
• SUP 1: 5355.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5271.70/5201.23 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 5055.00 Low Apr 30        
• SUP 4: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support  

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5201.23, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20                                     
• PRICE: 5930.00 @ 07:26 BST May 21 
• SUP 1: 5837.25/5703.54 High Mar 25 / 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This has strengthened the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5703.54, the 50-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Challenging Resistance   

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.37/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $66.09 @ 07:12 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a S/T bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.37, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Pierces The 50-Day EMA      

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.87/64.19 - 50-day EMA / Intraday high   
• PRICE: $62.71@ 07:23 BST May 21 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today and maintain a bullish theme. However, the recovery since Apr 9, still appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.87, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Gains Highlight The End Of A Corrective Phase                                

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9        
• PRICE: $3317.2 @ 07:28 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $3176.4/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing  

Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation would open $3435 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Support Still Intact            

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $33.103 @ 08:12 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low (pierced). A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.