MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Clears Resistance

Price Signal Summary – GBP Clears Resistance to Undermine Bearish Theme

• A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis is intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price also remains above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle. Recent gains in EUROSTOXX 50 futures undermine a recent bearish theme and the contract continues to appreciate. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
• GBPUSD rallied sharply higher yesterday to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3259. The break undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow a recent overbought condition to unwind. A strong bullish impulsive wave in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. This week’s gains have resulted in the breach of a short-term trendline resistance drawn from the Sep 17 high.                                     
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Short-term gains in WTI futures are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The move down this week resulted in a break of key short-term support at 128.67, the Nov 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle. A bullish short-term condition in Gilt futures remains intact following recent gains and the pullback between Nov 27 - Dec 2 appears corrective. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55.

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Breach Of Resistance Strengthens A Bull Theme    

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1   
• RES 3: 1.1747 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 1: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.1654 @ 06:21 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 1.1592 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1547 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger  

EURUSD gains this week have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear break of this retracement point would strengthen the developing bull theme. On the downside, initial support to watch is 1.1592, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bearish.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Reversal    

• RES 4: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg   
• RES 3: 1.3416 High Oct 21 
• RES 2: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3354 High Dec 3
• PRICE: 1.3334 @ 06:39 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 1.3259 5-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3203 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

GBPUSD rallied sharply higher yesterday to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3259. The break undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3368, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3203, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.  

EURGBP TECHS: Trades through The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8780 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8741 @ 06:51 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 0.8736 61.8% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 2: 0.8720 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the current spell of weakness appears corrective - for now. However, the cross has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.8755. A clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. A break of this hurdle would be a bullish development.        

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.29 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 154.67 Low Dec 01
• SUP 2: 153.34 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3:  152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at 155.32, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 153.34. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 158.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 183.79 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 181.03 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 180.05 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/177.97 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5  
• SUP 4: 175.66 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low 

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. The latest pause still appears to be a flag formation - a trend continuation signal that reinforces the bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation of the trend would signal scope for a climb towards 183.79, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 180.05, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Wave    

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 0.6660 High Sep 18 
• RES 2: 0.6640 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6618 High Oct 29 
• PRICE: 0.6617 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6525 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6404 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Sep 17 bull cycle  

A strong bullish impulsive wave in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. This week’s gains have resulted in the breach of a short-term trendline resistance drawn from the Sep 17 high. The break strengthens a bull theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on an extension towards 0.6640, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support to watch is at 0.6525, the 20-day EMA.            

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Base Still Exposed 

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4131 High Nov 21  
• RES 2: 1.4051 High Nov 28  
• RES 1: 1.4022 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3965 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 1.3938 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
• SUP 2: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3840 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 1.3812 Low Sep 23  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Sights are on 1.3938, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. A clear break of the channel base would highlight a stronger bear cycle and expose 1.3888, the Oct 29 low. On the upside, a reversal higher is required to refocus attention on 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and  key resistance. Initial resistance to watch is 1.4022, 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Bearish Theme Remains Intact                     

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.45 High Nov 28    
• RES 2: 129.14 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 128.89 Low Nov 21           
• PRICE: 128.53 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 4 
• SUP 1: 128.40 Low Dec 2     
• SUP 2: 128.33 1.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing   
• SUP 3: 128.18 1.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.00 Round number support

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The move down this week resulted in a break of key short-term support at 128.67, the Nov 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 17 and sets the scene for an extension towards 128.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies on the continuation chart have recently crossed to highlight a bear-mode condition. Key S/T resistance is 129.55, Nov 26 high.             

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Maintains A Softer Tone       

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.790 Low Nov 20    
• PRICE: 116.630 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 4 
• SUP 1: 116.580 Low Dec 2   
• SUP 2: 116.540 1.618 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing   
• SUP 3: 116.487 1.764 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.400 2.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The short-term trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish and Monday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through support at the 116.790 level, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 116.487 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 117.140, the Nov 26 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points South       

• RES 4: 107.060 High Nov 21 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 107.010 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 106.975 High Dec 1  
• RES 1: 106.945 High Dec 3  
• PRICE: 106.905 @ 06:11 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 106.885 Low Dec 2    
• SUP 2: 106.880 2.000 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.862 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.851 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing 

A sharp sell-off in Schatz futures on Monday confirms a resumption of a bear cycle that started mid-October. The contract has breached 106.965, the Nov 17 low. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.880 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 107.060, the Nov 21 high.             

GILT TECHS: (H6) Resistance Remains Exposed                   

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.93 High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.68 @ Close Dec 3
• SUP 1: 90.87/90.53 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 25       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

A bullish short-term condition in Gilt futures remains intact following recent gains and the pullback between Nov 27 - Dec 2 appears corrective. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. A gap in the daily chart has been filled and initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead refocus attention on support at 90.53, the Nov 26 low.             

BTP TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support       

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.77 High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 120.63 @ Close Dec 3
• SUP 1: 120.17 Low Nov 20 and key short-term support           
• SUP 2: 119.76 1.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.00 Round number support 

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the sell-off this week appears corrective - for now. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A clear breach of this level would resume a recent bear leg. Note that the moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at 121.33, the Oct 21 high.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Recovery Extends   

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing       
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5742.40 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg          
• PRICE: 5734.00 @ 07:42 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 5612.78/5475.00 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 5383.00 Low Sep 18 
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17      

Recent gains in EUROSTOXX 50 futures undermine a recent bearish theme and the contract continues to appreciate. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 5742.40 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. A break would open 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and a key resistance. First support lies at 5612.78, the 50-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Training At Its Latest Highs                

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2:  6900.50 High Nov 12
• RES 1: 6873.25 High Dec 3    
• PRICE: 6866.25 @ 07:30 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 6780.31 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6674.50/6525.00 Low Nov 25 / 21 
• SUP 3: 6500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend 

A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis is intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price also remains above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A continuation higher would highlight scope for a move towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support lies at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low.          

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Theme            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.05 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 4 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The move down in Brent futures since Oct 24, continues to highlight a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Attention Is On Support          

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.37 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Short-term gains in WTI futures are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.      

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4192.1 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 4 
• SUP 1: $4132.6/4016.8 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $4016.8. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North     

• RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $58.947 - High Dec 1   
• PRICE: $57.473 @ 08:17 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: $53.0168 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $49.933/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish - price has traded to a fresh all-time high this week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $53.168, the 20-day EMA.