MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Bear Cycle in Play

Price Signal Summary – GBP Bear Cycle in Play

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. Last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce a bull theme and the move higher maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s impulsive sell-off strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and last Wednesday’s fresh high reinforces current conditions. The break higher signals scope for 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
• A fresh cycle low last week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. This suggests a short-term bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The trend structure in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Has Breached Support     

• RES 4: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1669/1728 High Oct 28and key resistance / High Oct 17 
• RES 1: 1.1577 Low Oct 22 
• PRICE: 1.1537 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1522 Low Oct 31
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is trading at its recent lows. Friday’s move down resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of 1.1516 would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1669, the Oct 17 high, to reinstate a bull theme.           

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish However The Trend Is Oversold        

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1     
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 2: 1.3393 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3249/3322 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3143 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.3097 Low Oct 31
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg           

A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s impulsive sell-off strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 1.3041 next, the Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3322, the 20-day EMA.  Note that the trend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind.               

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Theme 

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8818 High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.8777 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 0.8729 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8699 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s strong gains strengthen current conditions. The break of resistance 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8751, the Sep 25 high. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 154.45 High Oct 30
• PRICE: 154.16 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: 153.27 High Oct 10
• SUP 2: 151.83 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 150.12 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 149.05 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart 

Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 151.83, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.    

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence  

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30
• PRICE: 177.91 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: 176.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.89 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish. The cross traded to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, confirming once again, a resumption of the primary uptrend. This opens 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at 176.54, the 20-day EMA.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6664 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6618 High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6553 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: 0.6533 Low Oct 30 and 31
• SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24  
• SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a key support   

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and last Wednesday’s fresh high reinforces current conditions. The break higher signals scope for 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that support at 0.6545, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would undermine the current bullish phase. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.       

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Recovery     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4039/80 High Oct 24 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4022 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and key short-term support 
• SUP 2: 1.3848 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19 
• SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger

A strong rally in USDCAD last week highlights a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. Note that the climb suggests that a doji candle on Oct 29 is a valid reversal signal. The pair is also holding on to its latest gains - a bullish signal. A continuation higher would open 1.4080, the Oct 16 high and a bull trigger. Key short-term support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3888, the Oct 29 low.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA                 

• RES 4: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance  
• RES 3: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 130.07/59 High Oct 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.73 High Oct 28     
• PRICE: 129.38 @ 05:45 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: 129.13 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. This suggests a short-term bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The next important support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.13. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance    
• RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24   
• PRICE: 118.250 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 118.020 Low Oct 30  
• SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle    
• SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10   
• SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle 

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now. The move down that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. However, support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.166, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 117.900, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.107/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.075 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 107.010/014 Low Oct 30 / 76.4% of Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg  
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact - for now. The current bear cycle that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 107.014 (pierced), the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg, and the next important support. A break would strengthen a bear theme. Initial resistance is at 107.107, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle            

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.96 High Oct 28  
• PRICE: 93.62 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 93.15 Low Oct 27       
• SUP 2: 92.75 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 4: 92.02 50-day EMA   

The trend structure in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. A break of this level would open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch 92.75, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 24 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.43 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.54 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 5804.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5742.00 High Oct 29       
• PRICE: 5676.00 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 5648.93 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5562.52 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5544.00 Bear channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low  
• SUP 4: 5497.00 Low Oct 14       

The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. Last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforces a bull theme and the move higher maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5777.41, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5648.93, the 20-day EMA.          

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up        

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30 
• PRICE: 6878.50 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 6812.25/6795.74 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6690.58 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6974.04 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6795.74, the 20-day EMA. Key pivot support lies at 6690.58, the 50-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Monitoring Resistance           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $65.22 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A short-term corrective bull cycle in Brent futures appears intact for now. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.72. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next hurdle to monitor is  $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed       

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $61.29 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.    

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase        

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31                 
• PRICE: $4016.00 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 3 
• SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 $3900.0 -  
• SUP 2: $3859.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

A fresh cycle low last week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20  has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3859.1. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.                     

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $49.052 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $45.963 - 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low AUg 27  

Trend signals in Silver are bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this to unwind. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $45.963. It remains intact, however, a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.