MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Retracement Mode Intact

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Cycle Still In Play  

• In the equity space, the trend set-up S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high this week maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6477.31, the 1.618 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Key support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 6189.50. The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Note that support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, has been breached. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat and expose the reversal trigger at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle.                                   
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a bearish tone and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. The breach of key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1548, highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1617, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal. A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1. Sights are on 1.3144, 38.2% of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3448, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s climb reinforces the current uptrend - the pair has breached the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the trend and sights are on 151.21 next, the Mar 28 high. Initial firm support is at 147.63, the 20-day EMA.                                
• On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish. In the oil space, WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The climb marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.37.               
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain above 128.84, the Jul 25 low. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. This key support remains intact for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 129.87, the 20-day EMA. A break of the Jul 25 low is required to confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Gilt futures have traded higher this week but have pulled back from Thursday’s high. Note that the contract has breached resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high - a bullish development. A return higher would open 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle    

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1548/1617 50-and 20-day EMA values 
• PRICE: 1.1420 @ 06:12 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

EURUSD maintains a bearish tone and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. The breach of key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1548, highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1617, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone  

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3448/1.3589 50-day EMA / High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16
• PRICE: 1.3198 @ 06:24 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.3186 Low Jul 31
• SUP 2: 1.3170 Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14   

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. Sights are on 1.3144, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3448, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a reversal.               

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8685/69 High Jul 29 / 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8655 @ 06:37 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: 0.8587 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish, however, the price pattern on Jul 28 - a bearish engulfing candle - signalled a potential short-term reversal. The subsequent sell-off reinforces this bearish theme and highlights scope for a correction. The 50-day EMA lies at 0.8587. It represents an important support and a clear break of it would strengthen a bear theme. For bulls, a move through 0.8769, the Jul 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.  

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 150.46 @ 06:57 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
• SUP 2: 147.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 146.51 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s climb reinforces the current uptrend - the pair has breached the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the trend and sights are on 151.21 next, the Mar 28 high. Pivot support to monitor is 146.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is at 147.63, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.06 @ 07:04 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 2: 169.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.17. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6430 @ 07:35 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 0.6422 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is trading at this week’s lows. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.         

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3871 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 1.3861 @ 07:56 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.3716/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3716, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Potential Reversal                              

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.11/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 129.87 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.49 @ 05:49 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures remain above 128.84, the Jul 25 low. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. This key support remains intact for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 129.87, the 20-day EMA. A break of the Jul 25 low is required to confirm a resumption of the bear trend.                                                       

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Its Recent Low                            

• RES 4: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 117.641 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 117.520 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.460 High Jul 28       
• PRICE: 117.200 @ 06:01 BST Aug 1 
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows following a pull back from the Jul 22 high. The contract has breached a key support at 117.200, the Jul 11 low, however price remains above the Jul 25 low. A bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. Initial resistance to watch is 117.520, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.                                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains INtact For Now                                   

• RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 107.251 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.192 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
• PRICE: 107.040 @ 06:10 BST Aug 1 
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract did recover from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.192. The 50-day EMA is at 107.251. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

GILT TECHS: (U5) Breaches Resistance                          

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 92.74 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 92.42 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg   
• RES 1: 92.28 High Jul 31 
• PRICE: 92.16 @ Close Jul 31 
• SUP 1: 91.70 / 08 Low Jul 30 / 18 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29   
• SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23        

Gilt futures have traded higher this week. Price has once again moved above the 20-day EMA, at 91.86 . Note too that the contract has also breached resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high. A continuation higher would open 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.                                        

 BTP TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.94 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 120.76 @ Close Jul 31
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (U5) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111-28   High Jul 3 
• RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22 & Jul 30
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-01 @ 20:25 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures ran into resistance Wednesday and pulled back from a key short-term hurdle at 111-14+, the high on Jul 22 and 30. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Short-Term Pullback Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 27   
• PRICE: 5260.00 @ 08:27 BST Aug 1 
• SUP 1: 5260.00 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Note that support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, has been breached. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat and expose the reversal trigger at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Corrective Pullback     

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31      
• PRICE: 6355.00 @ 07:22 BST Aug 1  
• SUP 1: 6333.64 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6288.25 Low Jul 17    
• SUP 3: 6241.00 Low Jul 16
• SUP 4: 6189.50 50-day EMA 

The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high this week maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6189.50. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6333.64.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Holding On To Its Latest Gains      

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $71.89 @ 07:06 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: $67.95/65.06 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have traded higher this week marking an extension of the corrective cycle that started Jun 30. The contract has traded through $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. The next resistance to watch is $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme.              

WTI TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle In Play              

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.24 @ 07:17 BST Aug 1 
• SUP 1: $65.37/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The climb marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.37. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.     

GOLD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23             
• PRICE: 3295.4 @ 07:21 BST Aug 1 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.            

SILVER TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA                      

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $36.535 @ 08:08 BST Aug 1  
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at $36.552, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.