MNI Daily Technical Analysis - EUROSTOXX50 Bull Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In EUROSTOXX50 Futures Intact  

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a 1.382 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6625.74, the 20-day EMA.
• EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. First support lies at 5417.44, the 20-day EMA.                                            
• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Last week's gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1923, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1678. the 50-day EMA. A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high. USDJPY is holding onto the bulk of its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.                              
• On the commodity front, Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3610.2, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.                     
• In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.60, the 20-day EMA. Despite the latest pullback from its recent highs, Gilt futures remain in a bull cycle and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective phase. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support to monitor lies at 90.65 (pierced), the Sep 5 low.

Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1801 @ 05:56 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.1726/1678 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Last week's gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 1.1678. the 50-day EMA.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3508 @ 06:10 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.3458 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 2: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.          

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8746 High Sep  
• PRICE: 0.8735 @ 06:33 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 0.8653/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading at its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8653, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend        

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.38/149.14 High Sep 22 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 147.90 @ 06:58 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 146.77/145.49 Low Sep 18 / 17 and a pivot support 
• SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3 

USDJPY recovered sharply from last week’s low and the pair is holding onto the bulk of its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.      

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High   

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.65 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 174.58 @ 07:28 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 173.26/172.03 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross has today traded to a fresh cycle high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.26, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears Corrective   

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
• PRICE: 0.6617 @ 07:55 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 0.6575/6551 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6551, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance   

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3864 High Sep 12 
• PRICE: 1.3853 @ 07:58 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

USDCAD is trading higher this week. A sharp sell-off  from the Sep 11 high,  resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows      

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.56 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 128.23 @ 05:36 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 128.01 Low Sep 23       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break if this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.60, the 20-day EMA.            

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Intact   

• RES 4: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance       
• RES 3: 117.922 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 117.850 High Sep 19 
• RES 1: 117.810 High Sep 22   
• PRICE: 117.700 @ 05:47 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 117.601 0.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 117.690 and 117.630, the Sep 2 and Aug 25 lows respectively. Clearance of these levels reinstates a bearish theme. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure   

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.980 @ 06:12 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 106.955 Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Price has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. Price has also traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. This maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trading Below Its Recent Highs     

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 Intraday high / High Sep 11
• PRICE: 90.92 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 90.65/60 Low Sep 2 / 22 
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Despite the latest pullback from its recent highs, Gilt futures remain in a bull cycle and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support to monitor lies at 90.65 (pierced), the Sep 5 low.    

BTP TECHS: (Z5)Corrective Pullback       

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.67 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 114-12  1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-29+ @ 19:17 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 112-20+/112-15+ Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-09   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Outlook Remains Bullish   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5564.82 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger  
• RES 1: 5506.00 High Sep 23     
• PRICE: 5470.00 @ 06:25 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 5417.44/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.      

 E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22  
• PRICE: 6723.50 @ 07:24 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 6625.74 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10 
• SUP 3: 6506.07 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6625.74, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Still Present      

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.74 @ 07:03 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are in consolidation mode for now. A bear cycle remains intact and stronger short-term gains would be considered corrective. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (X5) Still Looking For Weakness  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.52 @ 07:13 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Northbound     

• RES 4: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3831.4 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3791.1 - High Sep 23             
• PRICE: $3773.8 @ 07:17 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: $3610.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3495.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3439.0 - High Jul 23  

Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3610.2, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $44.468 - High Sep 23       
• PRICE: $44.158 @ 08:04 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $41.595 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.758- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.595, the 20-day EMA.