MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Eurostoxx Bull Phase Intact

Price Signal Summary – Eurostoxx Bull Cycle Intact Despite Fade Off Highs

• The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4881.26. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared.
• GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its most recent highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA, exposing the next firm resistance at 1.2830. A bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact despite recent gains - a correction. The pair traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the bear leg and the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Gold traded higher again yesterday. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A continuation of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The move down is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. For bulls, price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this has resulted in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish     

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 2: 1.0697 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• PRICE: 1.0525 @ 06:05 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.0461/0335 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

EURUSD has pulled back from 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. A resistance around 1.0574, the 20-day EMA, remains intact - for now. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0697, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. First support lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.2830 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2811 High Dec 6 
• PRICE: 1.2768 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 1.2617/2487 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its most recent highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA, exposing the next firm resistance at 1.2830, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction remains down, the bear trigger lies at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. First support to watch lies at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Southbound          

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 08376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8337 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8306 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8244 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 11  
• SUP 1: 0.8250/49 Low Apr 14 ‘22 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday and in the process, the cross breached key short-term support at 0.8260, the Nov 11 low. The break lower cancels a recent bullish signal - an engulfing candle on Nov 12. Instead, the move confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This exposes the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8306, the 20-day EMA.        

USDJPY TECHS: Recovery Appears Corrective        

• RES 4: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing 
• RES 3: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 154.49 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 152.18 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 151.76 @ 06:55 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 149.37/148.65 Low Dec 06 / 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 147.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact despite recent gains - a correction. The pair traded to a fresh short-term  trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the bear leg and the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high.    

EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Continue To Highlight A Downtrend              

• RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22  
• RES 2: 161.73 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 160.07/160.43 High Dec 10 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 159.48 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 157.56 Low Dec 05
• SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 160.43, the 20-day EMA.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence            

• RES 4: 0.6733 High Oct 13  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger              
• RES 2: 0.6559 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.6481 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6354 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 0.6341 Intraday low 
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
• SUP 3: 0.6300 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6481, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.4359 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4195 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 1.4186 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.4041/3928 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support  
• SUP 2: 1.3902 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and Tuesday’s gains have reinforced this theme. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to highlight a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4041, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 138.00 Round number resistance           
• RES 3: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 137.28 High Oct 2
• RES 1: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 135.90 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 135.75/135.46 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2  134.95 Low Nov 26              
• SUP 3: 134.55 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 133.17 Low Nov 20  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The move down is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. For bulls, price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 135.46, the 20-day EMA.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.925 2.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing        
• RES 3: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3                        
• PRICE: 118.880 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 11  
• SUP 1: 118.645 20-day EMA             
• SUP 2: 118.640 Low Dec 6    
• SUP 3: 118.280 Low Nov 25    
• SUP 4: 118.000 Round number support  

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The move down has allowed a short-term overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 119.674 next, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 119.480, the Feb 2 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 118.645, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play          

• RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 107.385 High Dec 4      
• PRICE: 107.270 @ 06:17 GMT Dec 11   
• SUP 1: 107.110 Low Dec 6 and key short-term support           
• SUP 2: 107.045 Low Nov 22  
• SUP 3: 106.960 Low Nov 20
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Nov 18  

A bullish trend structure in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at 107.480, the Dec 2 and 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 107.505 and 107.592, Fibonacci projection points. Initial support lies at 107.110, last Friday’s low. A break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.                                

GILT TECHS: (H5) Pullback Extends     

• RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing    
• RES 2: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing  
• RES 1: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3               
• PRICE: 95.22 @ Close Dec 10
• SUP 1: 95.13 Low Dec 10                     
• SUP 2: 94.66 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this has resulted in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.                 

BTP TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North                      

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 123.32 High Dec 9  
• PRICE: 122.86 @ Close Dec 10 
• SUP 1: 122.34 Low Dec 4      
• SUP 2: 121.58 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25  
• SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18  

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. The clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.58, the 20-day EMA.           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play          

• RES 4: 5184.22 3.236 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 5150.00 3.00 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing       
• RES 2: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5015.00 High Oct 29        
• PRICE: 4956.00 @ 06:24 GMT Dec 11  
• SUP 1: 4886.53/4699.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19 and bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9   
• SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6   

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4881.26. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support to watch lies at 488653, the 20-day EMA.    

E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trading Above Support 

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6184.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 4 - 11 - 19 price swing   
• RES 2: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing   
• RES 1: 6111.00 High Dec 6      
• PRICE: 6047.50 @ 07:26 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 6017.78 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5976.25/5924.48 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5855.00 Low Nov 19  
• SUP 4: 5814.75 Low Nov 6

The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Resumption of the uptrend would open 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6017.78, the 20-day EMA.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G5) Bearish Outlook             

• RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $74.28/75.79 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 5       
• PRICE: $72.57 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29   
• SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Despite this week’s gains, the outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.           

WTI TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed            

• RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5  
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $70.51/72.41 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 7   
• PRICE: $68.97 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29     
• SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A continuation of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.            

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact    

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25     
• PRICE: $2691.4@ 07:26 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18 
• SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4   

Gold traded higher again yesterday. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. First support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.              

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends              

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $32.283 - High Dec 9                            
• PRICE: 31.734 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 10  
• SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28       
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver is holding on to its recent gains. Despite a recovery in price, the bear cycle that started Oct 23 remains in play and gains are considered corrective - for now. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day EMA, at  $31.154, has been pierced. A continuation higher would expose $33.125, the Nov 1 high.