MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Trend Still North

Price Signal Summary – EURJPY Trend Still North

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle.
• A softer short-term tone in GBPUSD remains in place and the pair is trading lower once again, today. Price has pierced a key support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3481. A clear break of this level would undermine a bull theme. The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains last week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Short-term gains in USDCAD appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3752. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal.                         
• The bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.39. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Bund futures traded lower last week, and a bear cycle remains intact. Friday’s extension resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play                       

• RES 4: 1.1982 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1765/1829 High Jul 08 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1677 @ 07:16 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.1660/51 20-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1575 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 1.1495-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.1446 Low Jun 19 

A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains intact. The primary trend condition is bullish with moving average studies continuing to highlight a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1660, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1495. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3588 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3474 @ 06:32 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.3470 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3419 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
• SUP 3: 1.3371 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.3335 Low May 20 

A softer short-term tone in GBPUSD remains in place and the pair is trading lower once again, today. Price has pierced a key support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3481. A clear break of this level would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that a trendline support - drawn from the Jan 13 low - lies at 1.3419. A break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3681, the Jul 4 high.            

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Structure   

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
• RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8663 @ 06:42 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7 
• SUP 2: 0.8582/8526 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact. A recent consolidation phase appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Note too that 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A resumption of gains and a breach of 0.8670, the July 2 high and bull trigger, would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8582, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs     

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.57 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.37 @ 06:56 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 145.76 Low Jul 10   
• SUP 2: 145.11 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

USDJPY is trading at its recent highs and a short-term bull cycle remains intact. The pair has recently breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Note too that 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has also been cleared, exposing 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish. 

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.42 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 171.81 @ 08:02 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 170.81  Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 169.48 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 4: 166.88 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains last week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.48, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6559 @ 08:07 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.6534 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6485/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6485, the 50-day EMA.     

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3752 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3690 @ 08:11 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3752. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact                             

• RES 4: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 131.33 High Jun 20  
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 4
• RES 1: 130.10/130.56 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.26 @ 05:50 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 129.12 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 2: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 128.90 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9

Bund futures traded lower last week, and a bear cycle remains intact. Friday’s extension resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.36, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play                         

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 117.659 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 117.330 @ 06:09 BST Jul 14 
• SUP 1: 117.200 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 2: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing 
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.885 1.382 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing        

Last week’s move down in Bobl futures resulted in a breach of support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. The move down has pierced 117.210, a 1.000 projection of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would open the 117.000 handle. On the upside, resistance to watch is 117.659, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a possible reversal.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout                               

• RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
• RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.251 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 107.185 @ 06:19 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 107.120 Low Jul 11   
• SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower last week and for now, maintain a softer tone. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlights a range breakout and strengthens a short-term bearish theme. Sights are on 107.112 next, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Initial resistance is 107.251, the 20-day EMA.                                                              

GILT TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                          

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4      
• RES 2: 92.34 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 92.19 High Jul 10 
• PRICE: 91.69 @ Close Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 91.42 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg    
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.34, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.67/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.94 @ 08:14 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 119.84 Intraday low        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, note that the contract has pierced support at 120.09, the Ju 23 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback    

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• PRICE: 5362.00 @ 06:33 BST Jul 14 
• SUP 1: 5328.83 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open the 5500.00 handle. Price has pulled back from its recent highs - a correction. Support to watch lies at 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6335.50 High Jul 10    
• PRICE: 6265.00 @ 07:25 BST Jul 14  
• SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 2: 6201.21/6054.38 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6054.38.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective   

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $68.87 @ 07:06 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and gains since Jun 30 are - for now - considered corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Recent Gains Appear Corrective           

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $68.56 @ 07:19 BST Jul 14 
• SUP 1: $65.39/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.39. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Extends                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3374.1 - Intraday low          
• PRICE: $3358.3 @ 07:26 BST Jul 14 
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

The bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.           

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Extends                     

• RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $39.093 - Intraday high    
• PRICE: $38.961 @ 08:18 BST Jul 14  
• SUP 1: $36.493 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.334 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3 
• SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22 

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a strong impulsive bull cycle remains intact and today’s gains further reinforce current conditions. The metal has cleared key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.493, the 20-day EMA.