MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Tops Notable Level

Price Signal Summary – EURJPY Tops Notable Level

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s appreciation reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. A bullish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Gains on Monday reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg.
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle. The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective phase remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.32, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high.
• The latest pullback in Gold still appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $3202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and S/T gains are considered corrective. For now, the corrective cycle remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is $63.55, the 50-day EMA.
• A short-term bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. The contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.53. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and this week’s extension strengthens the current bearish threat. The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.46. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and Monday’s move down resulted in a print below 91.73. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact               

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1249/1381 20-day EMA / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1191 @ 06:06 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 1.1086/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Monday. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.10786, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle 

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 3: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3402/3444 High May 6 / High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3323 High May 9   
• PRICE: 1.3304 @ 06:22 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3095 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle. Key support to watch is 1.3095, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend. 

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows 

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8465 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8409 @ 06:53 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 0.8400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP is trading at its recent lows. The cross traded to a fresh, short-term cycle low Monday, strengthening a bearish theme. It has also cleared support at 0.8465, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 0.8415 next, a Fibonacci retracement. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 0.8400 and below. Key near-term resistance is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Short-term Bull Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
• RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• PRICE: 147.17 @ 07:08 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 146.32/144.93 50- and 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective phase remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.32, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move higher has exposed 148.54, a Fibonacci retracement (pierced). A clear break of this level would strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off 
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance          
• RES 2: 166.10/67 High Nov 6 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 1: 165.43 High Nov 8 2024
• PRICE: 164.55 @ 07:19 GMT May 14
• SUP 1: 163.00 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 162.10/161.60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

A bullish theme in EURJPY strengthened Tuesday with the break above the late Dec high. The cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and the latest climb paves the way for a move towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 162.10, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6474 @ 07:58 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.6349 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6349, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish 

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4031 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3931 @ 08:02 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone. Despite the latest gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the move higher is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last week reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4031, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact                        

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance                
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance     
• RES 2: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.53/72 50- and 20-day EMA values                    
• PRICE: 129.45 @ 05:46 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 129.37 Low May 12            
• SUP 2: 129.28 50.0% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 rally            
• SUP 3: 129.02 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4:  128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support 

A short-term bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. The contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.53. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and this week’s extension strengthens the current bearish threat. A continuation lower opens 129.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the move down since Apr 22 is a correction.  Initial resistance to watch is 130.72, the 20-day EMA.                                           

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play                

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 2: 119.600/780 High May 7 / High Apr 22
• RES 1: 118.705/118.992 50- and 20-day EMA values                                     
• PRICE: 118.220 @ 05:47 BST May 14 
• SUP 1: 118.180 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 118.105 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run  
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28      

For now a strong bearish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains intact and Monday’s sell-off strengthens the near-term bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and cleared 118.543, 38.2% of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run. This exposes 118.105, the 50.0% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 118.992, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a potential reversal.                     

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Retracement Mode                                   

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22 
• RES 1: 107.237/367 50- and 20-day EMA values                  
• PRICE: 107.100 @ 06:03 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 107.070 Low May 13 
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bullish, however, a sharp sell-off on Monday strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper corrective retracement. The contract has breached 107.090, 50.0% of the rally between Mar 6 - Apr 7. This exposes the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.367, the 20-day EMA.                                                          

GILT TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present                   

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance  
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.59/93 High May 8 / 2
• RES 1: 92.07/92.57 Low May 9 / 20-day EMA                           
• PRICE: 91.66 @ Close May 13
• SUP 1: 91.43 Low Apr 15                                        
• SUP 2: 90.92 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally
• SUP 3: 90.47 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 4: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    

The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.46. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and Monday’s move down resulted in a print below 91.73, the Apr 17 low. An extension of the bear leg has exposed 91.43, the Apr 15 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 92.57, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure.                               

BTP TECHS: (M5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.21/72 High May 9 / 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 119.32 @ Close May 13 
• SUP 1: 119.06 50-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective cycle signals potential for a pullback and the contract has traded lower this week. Price has breached the 20-day EMA, at 119.59 , exposing a firmer support at 119.06, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 120.72, the May 8 high.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Northbound               

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
• RES 1: 5410.00/5440.00 Tuesday’s peak / High Mar 25 and 26
• PRICE: 5391.00 @ 06:30 BST May 14 
• SUP 1: 5152.85 50-day EMA                      
• SUP 2: 5055.00 Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support        
• SUP 4: 4664.00 Low Apr 10   

A bullish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Gains on Monday reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5152.85, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                 

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5927.00 High May 13                                  
• PRICE: 5908.25 @ 07:43 BST May 14 
• SUP 1: 5648.28 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s appreciation reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5648.28, the 50-day EMA.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Testing Resistance  

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.59/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $66.27 @ 07:13 BST May 14
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The corrective cycle remains in play and attention is on key resistance at $66.59, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a  clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a move lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance    

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $66.41/71.76 - High Apr 4 / 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $63.55/90 - 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: $63.38 @ 07:24 BST May 14 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and S/T gains are considered corrective. For now, the corrective cycle remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is $63.55, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed                             

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9        
• PRICE: $3231.5 @ 07:31 BST May 14
• SUP 1: $3202.0 - Low May 1 and a key support 
• SUP 2: $3164.5/64.3 - 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3071.5 - Low Apr 10

The latest pullback in Gold still appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $3202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $3164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA is at $3164.5 - a key support too. The M/T trend remains bullish, a reversal would refocus attention on $3500.1, the Apr 22 high and bull trigger.   

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Support            

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.814 @ 08:06 BST May 14
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 1
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

Silver is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.