MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURGBP Reinforces Bull Trend

Price Signal Summary – EURGBP Reinforces Bull Trend

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
• A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The trend condition is bullish with moving average studies continuing to highlight a dominant uptrend. A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The break higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.46. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bear cycle remains intact. Last Friday’s extension resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.1969 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1765/1829 High Jul 08 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1680 @ 06:09 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.1661/51 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 1.1575 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 1.1495-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.1446 Low Jun 19 

A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The trend condition is bullish with moving average studies continuing to highlight a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1661, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1501. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Trendline Support    

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3572 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3438 @ 06:30 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.3430/22 T-line support drawn from Jan 13 low / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 1.3371 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 1.3335 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 1.3245 Low May 19 

A softer short-term tone in GBPUSD remains in place and Monday’s move down marked an extension of the current corrective bear leg. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing trendline support at 1.3430. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3681, the Jul 4 high.            

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8695 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8693 @ 06:41 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 0.8592 20- day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8532 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The break higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8592, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.61 @ 07:01 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 146.14 Low Jul 11   
• SUP 2: 145.30 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains intact. Price is approaching the next important resistance, at 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and expose key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. On the downside, support to watch is 145.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.  

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.54 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 172.50 @ 07:17 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 170.81  Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 169.75 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 4: 167.09 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.75, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6552 @ 07:58 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.6535 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6487/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend plus maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6487, the 50-day EMA.     

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3750 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3702 @ 08:04 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD is unchanged. Short-term gains appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3750. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Intact                             

• RES 4: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 131.33 High Jun 20  
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 4
• RES 1: 130.06/130.31 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 129.28 @ 05:36 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 129.08 Low Jul 14 
• SUP 2: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 128.90 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bear cycle remains intact. Last Friday’s extension resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.31, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Still In Play                         

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 117.628 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 117.390 @ 05:32 BST Jul 15 
• SUP 1: 117.200 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 2: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing 
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.885 1.382 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing        

A bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. 117.210, a 1.000 projection of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open the 117.000 handle. Resistance to watch is 117.628, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a possible reversal.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout                               

• RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
• RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.246 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 107.215 @ 06:03 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 107.120 Low Jul 11   
• SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower last week and for now, a bear cycle remains in play. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlights a range breakout and strengthens a short-term bearish theme. Sights are on 107.112 next, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.246, the 20-day EMA.                                                              

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Still Present                          

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4      
• RES 2: 92.29 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 92.19 High Jul 10 
• PRICE: 91.83 @ Close Jul 14 
• SUP 1: 91.42 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg    
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.29, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Has Breached Support 

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.60/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.92 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 119.84 Low Jul 14        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. However, for now, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a breach of support at 120.09, the Jul 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance to watch is 120.60, the 20-day EMA.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Pullback Appears Corrective     

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• PRICE: 5403.00 @ 06:39 BST Jul 15 
• SUP 1: 5331.07 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open the 5500.00 handle. Support to watch lies at 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6335.75 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6331.25 @ 07:23 BST Jul 15  
• SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 2: 6211.67/6064.44 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6064.44.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Recent Gains Appear Corrective   

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.03 @ 07:11 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and gains since Jun 30 appear corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Support Remains Exposed            

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.65 @ 07:19 BST Jul 15 
• SUP 1: $65.46/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.46. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3375.0 - High Jul 14           
• PRICE: $3360.6 @ 07:26 BST Jul 15 
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.           

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Intact                     

• RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $39.132 - High Jul 14     
• PRICE: $38.309 @ 08:11 BST Jul 15  
• SUP 1: $36.650 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.444 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3 
• SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22 

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a strong impulsive bull cycle remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has cleared key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.650, the 20-day EMA.