MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Rally Largest Since 2015

Price Signal Summary – EUR Rally Largest Since 2015

• A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis on Wednesday highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded in an extremely volatile manner this week and rallied sharply higher from this week’s lows. The climb highlights the start of a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition.
• A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the latest climb reinforces this condition. The breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDCAD traded low Thursday to confirm the end of the corrective phase between Apr 3 - 7. The move down also confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs.  A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Wednesday’s rally from the day low is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. 
• Bund futures have traded in a volatile manner this week and remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle is in play - for now - and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures this week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension          

• RES 4: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022 
• RES 2: 1.1468 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing  
• RES 1: 1.1383 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.1303 @ 06:11 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level     
• SUP 2: 1.0887 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0741 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the latest climb reinforces this condition. The breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1486 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is at 1.0887, the 20-day EMA.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone          

• RES 4: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 2:1.3207 High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3089 76.4% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 sell-off      
• PRICE: 1.3014 @ 06:24 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.2889/1.2709 20-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.2647 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair continues to recover from this week’s low. This confirms a recent spell of weakness as corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position that highlights a dominant uptrend. An extension higher would open 1.3089 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high. A move through Monday's 1.2709 low, would highlight reversal.   

EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Extends    

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing      
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23 
• RES 2: 0.8732 2.000 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8726 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8673 @ 06:45 BST Apr 11 
• SUP 1: 0.8520/0.8469 Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8393 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5

A bull trend in EURGBP remains intact and the cross has once again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The uptrend has entered an extreme overbought region following the latest impulsive rally. A corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. For bulls, sights are on 0.8732 and 0.8781, Fibonacci projection points. Initial firm support lies at 0.8469, the 20-day EMA.        

USDJPY TECHS: Southbound  

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 149.85/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.24 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11 and a recent breakout level   
• PRICE: 143.55 @ 06:59 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 142.89 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
• SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.24, the 20-day EMA.        

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.04/164.19 High Apr 3 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.10 @ 07:25 GMT Apr 11 
• SUP 1: 160.89/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

Recent weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the strong rally from Monday’s low reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA                   

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3               
• RES 2: 0.6332 High Apr 4   
• RES 1: 0.6264 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6201 @ 07:59 BST Apr 11 
• SUP 1: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The strong rally in AUDUSD extended Thursday and for now, the pair maintains a firmer short-term tone. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6264. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger.         

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat      

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4280 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14 
• PRICE: 1.3939 @ 08:13 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.3908 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24 
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6 ‘24 
• SUP 4: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run

USDCAD traded low Thursday to confirm the end of the corrective phase between Apr 3 - 7. The move down also confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.3822, the Nov 6 2024 low. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish                    

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance              
• RES 3: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger        
• RES 2: 131.32 76.4% retracement of Apr 7 - 9 pullback 
• RES 1: 130.75 High Apr 9                     
• PRICE: 130.20 @ 05:45 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 128.60 Low Apr 9         
• SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28            
• SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17   

Bund futures have traded in a volatile manner this week and remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle is in play - for now - and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Monday reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 128.60, Wednesday’s low.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact          

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 3: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 2: 119.422 76.4% retracement of Apr 7 - 9 pullback 
• RES 1: 119.140 High Apr 10                                    
• PRICE: 118.870 @ 07:00 BST Apr 11  
• SUP 1: 118.159/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27   
• SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    

Bobl futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - for now, appears corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract is overbought, a move down is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Volatile Correction                              

• RES 4: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 107.584 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 pullback 
• RES 1: 107.510 High Apr 10                   
• PRICE: 107.420 @ 07:06 BST Apr 11     
• SUP 1: 107.089/106.965 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9   
• SUP 2: 106.830 Low Mar 27    
• SUP 3: 106.728 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle       
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18     

Schatz futures remain below this week’s high and the contract is trading in a volatile manner. For now, the recent pullback appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Price has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. The break highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.965, Wednesday’s low.                                                      

GILT TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat                  

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8  
• RES 1: 91.96 20-day EMA                        
• PRICE: 91.11 @ 08:10 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 90.65/89.99 Low Apr 10 / 9                                       
• SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support      
• SUP 4: 88.00 Round number support  

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures this week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Wednesday. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low on the continuation chart. Initial resistance is at 91.96, the 20-day EMA.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                                 

• RES 4: 120.12 High High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 19.07 High Apr 4 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 118.26 High Apr 8           
• PRICE: 117.99 @ 07:14 BST Apr 11  
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.06 Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger       
• SUP 2: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 3: 115.53 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 - Apr 4 price swing  
• SUP 4:  115.00 Round number support    

BTP futures rallied sharply higher from Wednesday’s low. This week’s move down highlights a potential reversal of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle. The move down exposes key support at 115.75, the Mar 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. On the upside, initial firm resistance to monitor is 118.26, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would open 119.07, the Apr 8 high.               

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Trend Condition      

• RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27  
• RES 3: 5170.95 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5058.02 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5001.00 High Apr 9              
• PRICE: 4811.00 @ 06:54 BST Apr 11 
• SUP 1: 4721.00 Intraday low                     
• SUP 2: 4656.77 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 - Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 - Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded in an extremely volatile manner this week and rallied sharply higher from this week’s lows. The climb highlights the start of a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 5058.02, the 20-day EMA, and 5170.95, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Corrective Cycle                 

• RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6   
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger        
• RES 2: 5737.71 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5524.91 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5355.75 @ 06:55 BST Apr 12   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing  

A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis on Wednesday highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5524.91, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5737.71. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish     

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.07/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5            
• PRICE: $63.90 @ 07:01 BST Apr 11  
• SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures rallied on Wednesday. For now, the move higher is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $71.07.       

WTI TECHS: (K5) Resistance Remains Intact                          

• RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22  
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
• RES 2: $67.81/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $60.59 @ 07:07 BST Apr 11 
• SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Wednesday’s rally from the day low is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would open $54.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.                

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time Highs                        

• RES 4: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing   
• RES 3: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing   
• RES 1: $3220.1 - Intraday high       
• PRICE: $3211.2 @ 06:36 BST Apr 11 
• SUP 1: $3045.1 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $2956.7/2960.9 - Low Apr 7 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3045.1, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.                        

SILVER TECHS: Rally Considered Corrective         

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: $34.590 - High Mar 28 
• RES 2: $32.204- 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: $31.377 - Intraday high                                      
• PRICE: $31.290 @ 08:18 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $29.338/28.351 - Low Apr 9 / 7 and the bear trigger                
• SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24 
• SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support   

Silver has recovered from its recent lows and is holding on to this week’s gains. For now, the move higher appears corrective. The metal on Monday, traded through support at $28.748, the Dec 19 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continued sell-off, towards $27.686, the Sep 6 ‘24 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is $32.204 the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would alter the picture and highlight a stronger reversal.