MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Maintains Firmer Tone

Price Signal Summary – EUR Maintains Firmer Tone

• S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle highs this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat.                               
• EURUSD maintains a firmer tone and is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. A pullback between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1551. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, however, a corrective phase that started Jul 16 has resulted in a retracement from recent highs. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.94, the 50-day EMA. AUDUSD remains firm and this week’s fresh trend highs reinforce bullish conditions. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Gains have resulted in a print above key S/T resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger.
• Gold has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower.
• Bund futures have traded in a volatile manner this week and the contract has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead once again highlights a bearish threat. Gilt futures have pulled back from Tuesday’s high. For now the contract remains above its recent lows. A rally earlier this week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1912 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1790/1829 High Jul 7 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1742 @ 06:25 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.1678/1557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 1.1551 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone and is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. A pullback between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1551. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Thursday's High

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3627 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3589 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.3498 @ 06:38 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.3478/3365 50-day EMA / Low Jul 16 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

GBPUSD faced resistance Thursday. For now, recent gains continue to highlight a possible false break of a trendline breached on Jul 15. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low. Note that medium-term trend signals highlight an uptrend - moving average studies are in a bull mode position. The next resistance to watch is 1.3627, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 1.3365, Jul 16 low. A break would resume a bear theme.              

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh Cycle High   

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8710 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 0.8700 @ 06:54 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.8637 20- day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 3: 0.8570 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8540 Low Jun 30

The trend set-up in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and Thursday’s climb reinforces this theme. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The fresh cycle high yesterday paves the way for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch is 0.8637, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 147.95/149.18 High Jul 22 / 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 146.97 @ 08:12 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 145.94/86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 143.63 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, however, a corrective phase that started Jul 16 has resulted in a retracement from recent highs. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.94, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for stronger reversal and open 145.16, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a breach of 149.18, the Jul 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.   

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance  
• RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 172.81 @ 07:36 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 171.27 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.77 Low Jul 3
• SUP 3: 168.57 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23    

EURJPY is trading at its recent highs and a bullish trend condition remains intact. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 171.27, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6625 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 0.6579 @ 07:56 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.6541 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6502/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17  
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

AUDUSD remains firm  and this week’s fresh trend highs reinforce bullish conditions. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Gains have resulted in a print above key S/T resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This resumes the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6502. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 0.6541.       

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3729/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3660 @ 08:04 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Despite a recovery from this week’s lows, the trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 1.3729, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Approaching The Range Base                              

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.23/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.04 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.58 @ 06:04 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 129.44/08 Low Jul 24 / 14 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 128.97 Low May 14 and the base of a 3.5-month range
• SUP 3: 128.90 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9

Bund futures have traded in a volatile manner this week and the contract has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead once again highlights a bearish threat. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the key 129-00 handle that marks the base of a 3.5-month range. A break of this level would strengthen a  bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 130.23, the 50-day EMA.                                                     

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Sights Are On Key Support                             

• RES 4: 118.109 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 bear leg 
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 2: 117.718/118.030 50-day EMA / High Jul 22 
• RES 1: 117.718 50-day EMA      
• PRICE: 117.310 @ 06:19 BST Jul 25 
• SUP 1: 117.290 Low Jul 24  
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)       

Bobl futures have traded in a volatile manner this week and the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. The extension lower undermines a recent bullish theme and attention turns to key short-term support at 117.200, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Apr 7. This would open the 117.000 handle. Initial resistance to watch is 117.718, the 50-day EMA.                                  

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Clears Key Support                                   

• RES 4: 107.475 High May 27 
• RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 107.205/261 Low Jul 18 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.105 @ 06:28 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 107.095 Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 107.057 1.236 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 107.021 1.382 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.000 Round number support 

Schatz futures traded sharply lower Thursday resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 7. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 107.057, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 107.205, the Jul 18 low.                                                                   

GILT TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Key Support For Now                           

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 92.74 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 92.42 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg   
• RES 1: 91.92/92.15 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
• PRICE: 91.42 @ 08:01 BST Jul 25 
• SUP 1: 91.18/91.08 Low Jul 24 / 18 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29   
• SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23        

Gilt futures have pulled back from Tuesday’s high. For now the contract remains above its recent lows. A rally earlier this week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.                                        

BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support   

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.21@ 07:12 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 119.84 Low Jul 14 and key S/T support        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish, however, attention is on the pullback from Wednesday's high. Key short-term support to watch is 119.84, the Jul 14 low. A break of this level would confirm a continuation of the corrective phase that began Jun 13, and open 119.48 initially, the May 26 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.                    

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Outlook Remains Bullish    

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5441.00 High Jul 24   
• PRICE: 5364.00 @ 06:51 BST Jul 25 
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat     

• RES 4: 6500.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 6439.88 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6421.25 Intraday high      
• PRICE: 6413.00 @ 07:22 BST Jul 25  
• SUP 1: 6289.07 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6142.04 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 6075.25 Low Jun 24
• SUP 4: 5959.00 Low Jun 23  

S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle highs this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. With the 6400.00 handle cleared, sights are on 6439.88, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6142.04. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6289.07.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.78 @ 07:04 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

The trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged. A bearish theme remains present and the July recovery appears corrective. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish threat. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci point.             

WTI TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle              

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $69.41/75.98 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.60 @ 07:10 BST Jul 25 
• SUP 1: $64.75/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.75. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.     

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective                                          

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3439.0 - High Jul 23             
• PRICE: 3357.6 @ 07:18 BST Jul 25 
• SUP 1: $3322.6 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.           

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                     

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $39.074 @ 08:08 BST Jul 25  
• SUP 1: $37.772 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $36.310 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $35.285 - Low Jun 24  
• SUP 4: $33.967 - Low Jun 3

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish. This week’s gains reinforce current trend conditions - the metal has traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.772, the 20-day EMA.