MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EStoxx 50 Bull Condition Intact

Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Bull Cycle Intact  

• In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis  remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5779.53. A key support lies at 5719.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high. A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5223.87, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.                  
• In FX, EURUSD  has traded higher today, extending the current bull phase. Trend conditions are bullish - MA studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 1.1134, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support is 1.1259, the 20-day EMA. The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the pair has traded higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. The bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. First support lies at 1.3329, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. Sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.85, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. First resistance is at 144.66, the 20-day EMA.                 
• On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low. In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The May 21 price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal.          
• In the FI space, the recovery in Bund futures that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Initial resistance is Friday’s high of 130.94. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Phase Extends                   

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg    
• PRICE: 1.1406 @ 06:20 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.1259 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1134/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is trading higher today, extending the current bull phase. Trend conditions are bullish and MA studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 1.1134, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3572 @ 06:39 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.3444/3329 High Apr 28 and 29 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3173/40 50-day EMA / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the pair is trading higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. The bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a Fibonacci retracement. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First support lies at 1.3329, the 20-day EMA.   

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8451 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8400 @ 07:02 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.8380 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and last week’s move down reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA at 0.8451, is intact. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and shift attention to the 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached, this opens 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.

USDJPY TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone     

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.66/145.85 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 142.74 @ 07:34 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 142.23 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. Sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.85, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.  

EURJPY TECHS: Has Breached The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 163.41/64.07 High May 22 / 15 
• PRICE: 162.87 @ 08:00 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 161.09 Low May 23      
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162.29, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. This would open 160.99, the Apr 22 low. Clearance of this level would expose 160.01, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high. First resistance is 163.41, high May 22.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Triangle Breakout 

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.6519 @ 08:08 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.6417 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6372/57 50-day EMA / Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish. The pair is trading higher today and has cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This also confirms a triangle breakout and marks a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6372, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal.  

USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend  

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3994/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.38.97 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3702 @ 08:17 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.3686 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme. The pair has traded through support at 1.3751, the May 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 1.3600 handle while further out, the move down opens 1.3420, the Sep 25 ‘24 low. Initial resistance is 1.3897, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.94 High May 23                     
• PRICE: 130.27 @ 05:54 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

The recovery in Bund futures that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Initial resistance is Friday’s high of 130.94. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact                     

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.250 High May 23                                     
• PRICE: 118.770 @ 06:16 BST May 26 
• SUP 1: 118.390 Low May 22        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance.  On the downside, key support and the trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Trades Through Resistance                                     

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.550 High May 7 and Friday’s high                   
• PRICE: 107.320 @ 06:25 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and resistance at 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, has been cleared. The break signals a potential stronger reversal. This exposes 107.550, the May 7 high. A break would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a resumption of the recent bear leg would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                                                           

 BTP TECHS: (M5) Remains Above The 50-Day EMA                                     

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 120.23 @ Close May 23 
• SUP 1: 119.29/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Key support to watch lies at 119.29, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.72, the May 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (M5) Key Support Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2  
• RES 2: 111-22   High May 7 
• RES 1: 110-21+ High May 16 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-01 @ 16:05 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 109-13   Low May 22
• SUP 2: 109-08   Low Apr 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 108-21   Low Feb 19  

A bear cycle that started early May in Treasury futures remains in play, affirmed by the weakness off intraday highs on Friday. The recent breach of 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, strengthened a bearish theme and has exposed key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 110-21+, the May 16 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Sights Are On Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5405.00 @ 07:03 BST May 26 
• SUP 1: 5255.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5223.87 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5223.87, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20 and the bull trigger                                     
• PRICE: 5882.50 @ 07:32 BST May 26 
• SUP 1: 5756.50/5719.58 Low May 23 / 50-day EMA and key support                        
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5779.53. A key support lies at 5719.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) M/T Trend Condition Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.19/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $64.99 @ 07:11 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures remain closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a short-term bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.19, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Reversal Signal Still In Play       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.71/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21   
• PRICE: $61.64 @ 07:18 BST May 26 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The May 21 price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal. 

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                                

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3365.9 - High May 23        
• PRICE: $3341.9 @ 07:25 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $3276.4/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.7 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 7 price swing  

Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed             

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high                                         
• PRICE: $33.414 @ 08:19 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.