MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Uptrend Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary - Fresh S&P E-Minis Cycle High   

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 6543.75, a 2.00 projection of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing. Pivot support to watch lies at 6326.74, the 50-day EMA. First support lies at 6436.50, the 20-day EMA. The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. However, support at 5376.70, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high.                                       
• In FX, EURUSD is in consolidation mode. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1604. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. A bear threat in USDJPY remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August and open 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.                               
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Thursday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. A break of this level would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. Initial support lies at $3311.6, the Aug 20 low. In the oil space, despite recent gains, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.                 
• In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 129.78. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery within the multi-month range. This would open 130.06, the Aug 14 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 128.64. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and Wednesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.22, the Aug 26 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Primary Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1663 @ 06:09 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD is in consolidation mode. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1604. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook 

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
• PRICE: 1.3496 @ 06:19 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.      

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8674 High Aug 25 and a key near-term resistance 
• PRICE: 0.8642 @ 16:32 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade below Monday’s high. A bear threat remains present and attention is on support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Jul 28 and highlight potential for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, resistance to watch is 0.8674, the Aug 25 high. A breach would instead signal a stronger reversal.  

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.78/149.12 High Aug 22 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 147.00 @ 06:52 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 145.08 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A bear threat in USDJPY remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. 

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.54 @ 06:56 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 170.64 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY is unchanged and continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend structure is bullish and key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.64. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension 

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6542 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6531 @ 07:59 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The latest recovery signals the end of the recent corrective phase and sights are on resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Aug 24 high. Support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
• RES 1: 1.3868/3925 High Aug 26 / 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3754 @ 08:04 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.3741 Low Aug 28  
• SUP 2: 1.3722 Low Aug 7
• SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger 

A bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. However, the latest corrective pullback has resulted in a breach of support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3777. A clear break of this handle signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3722, the Aug 7 low. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA   

• RES 4: 130.60 High Aug 5 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 130.26 High Aug 8  
• RES 2: 130.06 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 129.78/90 50-day EMA / High Aug 28  
• PRICE: 129.64 @ 05:39 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 129.15/128.64 Low Aug 26 / 15 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 129.78. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery within the multi-month range. This would open 130.06, the Aug 14 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 128.64. A break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.    

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Holding On To The Bulk Of This Week’s Gains  

• RES 4: 18.030 High Jul 22 and a reversal trigger      
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.630 High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 117.460 @ 05:58 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 117.250/116.950 Low Aug 26 / 15 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures have traded higher this week. Price has moved through resistance at the 50-day EMA at 117.475. A clear break of the average would undermine the recent bearish threat and instead signal scope for a climb towards the next important short-term resistance at 117.710, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 116.950, the Aug 15 low.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24  
• RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 107.148 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
• RES 1: 107.125 High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 107.060 @ 05:42 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 107.035/106.970 Low Aug 26 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish, however, the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.148. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 107.185, the Aug 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 106.970, the Aug 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.   

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Intact 

• RES 4: 92.15 High Aug 11  
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14       
• RES 2: 91.45 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance 
• PRICE: 90.72 @ Close Aug 28
• SUP 1: 90.22 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 90.0089.99/ Psychological round number / Low Apr 9 (cont)
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)       

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and Wednesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.22, the Aug 26 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Support Intact      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.57 @ Close Aug 28
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. For now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 113-06   2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 113-00   Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing  
• RES 1: 112-19+ Intraday high 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-16+ @ 16:55 BST Aug 28
• SUP 1: 111-27   20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-16   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The trend outlook in Treasury futures remains bullish. Thursday’s gains have delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and pave the way for a climb towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. First support to watch is 111-27, the 20-day EMA.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support  

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22 
• PRICE: 5361.00 @ 09:47 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 5358.00 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 5325.00 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and a key support   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. However, support at 5376.70, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.  

 E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6590.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 6512.50 @ 07:25 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 6436.50/6362.75 20-day EMA / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6326.74 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6543.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6326.74, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Trend Outlook Still Bearish  

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.06/71.93 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.70 @ 07:01 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Despite trading closer to their recent high, a bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact and short’-term gains appear corrective. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $64.36 @ 07:17 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

Despite recent gains, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. 

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Resistance   

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3439.0 - High Aug 23             
• PRICE: $3411.7 @ 07:25 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $3311.6/3268.2 - Low Aug 20 / Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold traded higher on Thursday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. A break of this level would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. A breach of it would highlight a bearish threat.              

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.835 @ 08:08 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $37.449/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal is trading closer at its recent highs. Prices have recently recovered off support around the 50-day EMA, now at $37.449. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, the latest resumption of gains opens the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.