MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Bull Cycle Hits New High

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle Tips Equities to New Highs

• Short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high today, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and strong gains between Dec 18 - 26, reinforce current conditions. The pair has cleared a key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high.
• The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off late December appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Recent gains in Bund futures appear to have been a correction and the contract remains in a clear downtrend. A fresh cycle low on Dec 22 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, signalling scope for a move towards 126.53, the Mar 11 low. Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1765 High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1685 @ 05:55 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 1.1672 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.1639 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish, however a corrective cycle is in play for now. Today’s bearish start to this week’s session strengthens a short-term bearish theme. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.1683. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.1639, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 1.1808, the Dec 24 high.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support For Now

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Sep 18    
• RES 3: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing 
• RES 2: 1.3557 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3502/3537 High Jan 2 / High Dec 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3424 @ 06:06 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 1.3402 Low Dec 31
• SUP 2: 1.3361 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.3180 Low Dec 2     

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key short-term support is seen at 1.3361, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a resumption of the uptrend would open 1.3557, a Fibonacci retracement.  

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8747/97 50-day EMA / High Dec 17 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8703 @ 06:23 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 0.8689 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8670 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 0.8633 Low Sep 15  

The bear cycle that started Nov 14 in EURGBP remains intact. 0.8706, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg, has been pierced. The break of it strengthens the current bear theme and opens 0.8656, the Oct 8 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.8744, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8797, the Dec 17 high.          

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Theme Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 157.03 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: 156.20/155.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 155.00, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs 

• RES 4: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 186.10 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 185.77 2.5000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 184.92 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 183.55 @ 07:29 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 183.17 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 182.25 Low Dec 19  
• SUP 3: 181.57 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 4: 181.08 50-day EMA

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. A fresh trend high on Dec 22 confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 186.10, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. This level also represents a key resistance point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 183.17, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would signal the start of a corrective cycle.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence     

• RES 4: 0.6858 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.6795 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing 
• RES 2: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6728 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6674 @ 07:51 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: 0.6657 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6608 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6593 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 0.6553 Low Dec 3  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and strong gains between Dec 18 - 26, reinforce current conditions. The pair has cleared a key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend that started Apr 9. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6759 next, the Apr 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6657, the 20- day EMA.  

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 1.3888 Low Oct 29   
• RES 3: 1.3848 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3806 High Dec 19  
• RES 1: 1.3782 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 1.3779 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 1.3643 Low Dec 26
• SUP 2: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and a key M/T support   

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 1.3764, and this signals scope for a stronger corrective bounce. The next resistance points to watch are; 1.3806, the Dec 19 high, and 1.3848, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3643, the Dec 26 low.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points South                      

• RES 4: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 128.40 Low Dec 2    
• RES 2: 128.08 High Dec 8 
• RES 1: 127.77/86 20-day EMA / High Dec 30           
• PRICE: 127.12 @ 05:31 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: 126.75 Low Dec 22 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support  
• SUP 3: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.20 3.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Recent gains in Bund futures appear to have been a correction and the contract remains in a clear downtrend. A fresh cycle low on Dec 22 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, signalling scope for a move towards 126.53, the Mar 11 low (cont.). Initial firm resistance is seen at 127.77, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a stronger correction. The bear trigger is 126.75, the Dec 22 low.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Bearish Trend Theme          

• RES 4: 116.770 High Dec 3 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 116.580 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 116.320 High Dec 8    
• RES 1: 116.222/260 20-day EMA / High Dec 29   
• PRICE: 115.990 @ 05:29 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: 115.910/720 Low Dec 23 / 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 116.222.       

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Gains Considered Corrective            

• RES 4: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 106.900 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 106.835 High Dec 8   
• RES 1: 106.793/810 20-day EMA / High Dec 30
• PRICE: 106.745 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 106.690 Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 
• SUP 4: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. On the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.793 (pierced), the 20-day EMA. A stronger corrective bounce would allow a recent oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Directional Triggers Intact For Now                    

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.93 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.47 High Dec 31      
• PRICE: 90.78 @ Close Jan 2
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Sights Are On The Bear Trigger       

• RES 4: 121.37 High Nov 13
• RES 3: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 120.59 High Dec 29 and key S/T resistance 
• RES 1: 120.09 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 119.61 @ Close Jan 2
• SUP 1: 119.45 Low Dec 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

A sharp reversal in BTP futures from the Dec 29 high signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. A  continuation lower would expose the key support and bear trigger at 119.13, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. First resistance is at 120.09, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 120.59, the Dec 29 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.                        

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Northbound      

• RES 4: 6011.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing      
• RES 3: 6000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5935.01 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing  
• RES 1: 5917.00 Intraday high         
• PRICE: 5911.00 @ 08:06 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 5762.47 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5704.24 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5655.00 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 5622.00 Low Nov 26      

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high today, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5935.01 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 5762.47, the 20-day EMA.   

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Monitoring Support  

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing  
• RES 3: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6994.00 High Dec 26   
• PRICE: 6907.75 @ 06:31 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 6861.82 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger  

Short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.              

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H6) Bearish Outlook             

• RES 4: $70.06 - High Jul 30 
• RES 3: $68.58 - High Sep 26 
• RES 2: $64.81 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.06 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $60.43 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: $58.53 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.27 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $57.87 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.44 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest strong recovery is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $58.27, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is $64.81, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $62.06, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (G6) Bearish Trend Signals Dominate        

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $58.47 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $56.84 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for a move towards $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.47, the 50- day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Trend SIgnals remain Bullish          

• RES 4: $4600.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 2: $4549.9 - High Dec 26 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $4430.8 - Low Dec 23                     
• PRICE: $4421.7 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 5 
• SUP 1: $4274.7 - Low Dec 31 
• SUP 2: $4194.5 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $4109.7 - Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off late December appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support at $4325.1, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA at $4194.5. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support    

• RES 4: $87.355 - 4.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $86.065 - 4.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $84.008 - High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $78.684 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 29 - 31 pullback  
• PRICE: $75.523 @ 08:06 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: $70.071 - Low Dec 31  
• SUP 2: $67.842 - 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: $60.312 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish  and the volatile session late December that included a sharp pullback, appears corrective for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at $67.842, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the bull trigger is at $84.008, the Dec 29 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.