MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Hit New Record Highs

Price Signal Summary – Equities Striking New Record Highs

• S&P E-Minis are trading higher today and this has resulted in a fresh cycle high. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat.
• EURUSD continues to trade at its recent lows. The move down this month appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has recently been cleared. This signals scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 1.1514. The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs this week maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, however, a pullback this week highlights a corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6490, has been breached.
• Gold is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish. A bearish tone in WTI futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower.
• Bund futures continue to trade above their latest lows. However, a bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s volatile bearish activity reinforces this theme. The contract has recently breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also traded through 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1916 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1750/1829 High Jul 10 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1617 @ 06:16 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 1.1566/57 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 1.1511 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD continues to trade at its recent lows. The move down this month appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has recently been cleared. This signals scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 1.1514. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. For now, trend signals continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and a bull trigger. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows     

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3530 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3418 @ 06:29 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16
• SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place with price trading at its recent lows. This week’s extension lower has resulted in a breach of  trendline support at 1.3460. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3530, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.             

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8698 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 0.8657 @ 06:37 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 0.8609 20- day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8546 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs this week maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch is unchanged at 0.8609, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 148.78 @ 06:59 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 146.92 Low Jul 16   
• SUP 2: 146.31 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 145.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains firmly in place and this week’s gains mark an extension of the bull phase. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of  resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and sights are on 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 145.66, the 50-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance  
• RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 172.77 @ 07:11 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 171.84  Low Jul 16  
• SUP 2: 170.42 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 169.32 Low Jul 3   
• SUP 4: 167.69 50-day EMA   

A bull cycle in EURJPY remains firmly in place and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights a dominant uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.42, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 0.6508 @ 07:57 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 0.6455 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg   
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, however, a pullback this week highlights a corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6490, has been breached. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension initially towards 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6595, clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

USDCAD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3747/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3738 @ 08:01 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 1.3639/3557 Low Jul 08 / 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent highs. Attention is on resistance at 1.3747, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. This would open 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. For now, a bear trend remains firmly in place. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Gains Appear Corrective                             

• RES 4: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 131.33 High Jun 20  
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 4
• RES 1: 129.96/130.24 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 129.79 @ 05:52 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 129.08 Low Jul 14 
• SUP 2: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 128.90 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9

Bund futures continue to trade above their latest lows. However, a bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.24, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Corrective Recovery                          

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 117.710 High Jul 8    
• PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:58 BST Jul 18 
• SUP 1: 117.200 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 2: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing 
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.885 1.382 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing        

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. 117.210, a 1.000 projection of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open 117.000. Resistance to watch is 117.710, the Jul 8 high.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                                

• RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
• RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.315 High Jul 16  
• PRICE: 107.245 @ 06:08 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 107.200/120 Low Jul 15 and 16 / Low Jul 11 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures have recovered from their recent lows. However, a bear cycle remains in play and short-term gains appear corrective. A recent move down resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlighted a range breakout. A resumption of weakness would open 107.112, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Key near-term resistance is at 107.365, the Jul 7 high.                                                                 

GILT TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Softer Tone                          

• RES 4: 93.41 High Jul 2      
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.79 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 92.08/24 20-day EMA / HIgh Jul 15
• PRICE: 91.43 @ Close Jul 17 
• SUP 1: 91.14 Low Jul 17   
• SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29   
• SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s volatile bearish activity reinforces this theme. The contract has recently breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also traded through 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 92.08, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present 

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.53/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.49 @ Close Jul 17
• SUP 1: 119.84 Low Jul 14        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. However, a corrective cycle has resulted in a breach of support at 120.09, the Jul 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance to watch is 120.53, the 20-day EMA.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook     

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5415.00 High Jul 15  
• PRICE: 5411.00 @ 06:26 BST Jul 18 
• SUP 1: 5303.00 Low Jul 16   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the M/T bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open the 5500.00 handle.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High    

• RES 4: 6439.884 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 6357.00 Intraday high      
• PRICE:6356.00@ 07:26 BST Jul 18  
• SUP 1: 6288.25 Low Jul 17  
• SUP 2: 6237.47/6092.32 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

S&P E-Minis are trading higher today and this has resulted in a fresh cycle high. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6381.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6092.32. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6237.47.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Still Looking For Weakness    

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.68 @ 07:09 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and recent gains are considered corrective – the sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish threat. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA            

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $68.00 @ 07:19 BST Jul 18 
• SUP 1: $65.61/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bearish tone in WTI futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.61. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.     

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3377.4 - High Jul 16           
• PRICE: 3337.3 @ 07:24 BST Jul 18 
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Gold is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.           

SILVER TECHS: Northbound                    

• RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $39.132 - High Jul 14     
• PRICE: $38.352 @ 08:10 BST Jul 18  
• SUP 1: $36.983 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.724 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3 
• SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22 

Trend signals in Silver continue to point north with the metal trading closer to its recent highs. On Jul 11, Silver cleared a key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.983, the 20-day EMA.