MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ECB Affirm EUR Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – ECB Affirm EUR Uptrend

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. The recent break of 5993.50 last week, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend. The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and a recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. 
• Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish. Thursday’s climb resulted in a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the trend and has opened 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish. Attention is on the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low.               
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. Medium-term trend signals are bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. WTI futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9 still appears corrective. A key resistance area to monitor is $62.56, the 50-day EMA.     
• A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and Thursday’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The recovery that started May 14 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 14, has been a correction. Gilt futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract strengthened once again, yesterday. The latest rally undermines the recent bearish theme - a key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                     

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1495 High June 05
• PRICE: 1.1438 @ 06:09 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.1334 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1208/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the trend and has opened 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Thursday’s gains highlight an extension of the current bull leg and reinforce a bullish theme. Support to watch lies at 1.1208, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is at 1.1334, the 20-day EMA.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5    
• PRICE: 1.3565 @ 06:38 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.3445 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3279 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish. Thursday’s climb resulted in a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3445, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3279.    

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now  

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9  
• RES 1: 0.8441/59 50-day EMA and key resistance / High May 21 
• PRICE: 0.8428  @ 06:41 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 0.8356 Low May 29 
• SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing

EURGBP is unchanged and a bear cycle is still in play. A key short-term resistance to watch is 0.8441, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, however, a clear break of it is required to highlight a stronger reversal. This would expose 0.8541. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8356, the May 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook   

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 144.38/146.28 High Jun 4 / High May 29 and key resistance   
• PRICE: 143.95 @ 06:44 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish. Attention is on the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. Moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high.    

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance    

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21 High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 165.21 High May 13 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 164.73 @ 07:35 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 162.66/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest recovery from the May 23 low, signals the end of a corrective phase between May 13 - 23. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High     

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6538 High June 5
• PRICE: 0.6496 @ 08:03 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 0.6448/6400 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

Trend signals in AUDUSD are bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6400, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3918/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3801 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3667 @ 08:07 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 2024        
• SUP 2: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024 

The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish and the pair traded lower Thursday, delivering a fresh cycle low. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3579 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3918 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3801.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback                          

• RES 4: 132.00 Round number resistance               
• RES 3: 131.85 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.50 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.47 High Jun 5                       
• PRICE: 130.27 @ 05:42 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 130.12 Jun 5 low              
• SUP 2: 129.30/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14  
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9 

A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and Thursday’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The recovery that started May 14 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 14, has been a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 131.85, the Apr 22 high. Key short-term support to watch is 128.97, the May 14 low. First support lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.                                              

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                        

• RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22           
• RES 2: 118.300 High May 7  
• RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3   
• PRICE: 117.610 @ 05:56 BST Jun 6  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle. The sharp pullback yesterday - for now - appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a corrective phase in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low.                         

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Strong Sell-Off                       

• RES 4: 107.830 High Apr 22  
• RES 3: 107.690 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.320/475 Low May 29 / High May 27 
• PRICE: 107.230 @ 06:42 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 107.200 Low Jun 5    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the sharp pullback Thursday does undermine the recent bull theme. A resumption of gains would highlight the fact that move down has been a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 107.475, the May 27 high. A break would be a bullish development. For bears, an extension lower would instead expose the key support at 107.125, the May 12 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Extends                         

• RES 4: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.79 1.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 92.63 High Jun 5  
• PRICE: 91.94 @ Close Jun 5
• SUP 1: 91.44 Low Jun 4 
• SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support        

Gilt futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract strengthened once again, yesterday. The latest rally undermines the recent bearish theme - a key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension higher and sights are on 92.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 91.44, the Jun 4 low.                                  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Pullback Considered Corrective                                        

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 121.32 High Jun 5 
• PRICE: 120.22 @ Close Jun 5 
• SUP 1: 120.03 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and Thursday’s pullback is for now considered corrective. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.03, the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bulls Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5407.00 @ 06:50 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 5355.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5274.35 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and a recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5274.35, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bullish Trend Sequence 

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6016.50 High Junb 5 
• PRICE: 5965.00 @ 07:22 BST Jun 6  
• SUP 1: 5871.05/5780.89 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. The recent break of 5993.50 last week, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A continuation would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5780.89, the 50-day EMA.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Challenging Resistance    

• RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $67.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $65.28/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: $65.00 @ 07:04 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are unchained and remain in range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish and recent gains still appear to be corrective. Resistance at $65.28, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a confirmed reversal lower would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low. First support is $62.09, the May 30 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.19 - High May 21
• PRICE: $63.09 @ 07:15 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9 still appears corrective. A key resistance area to monitor is $62.56, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, however, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3403.5 - High Jun 5         
• PRICE: $3364.1 @ 07:22 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: $3313.2/3236.1 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. Medium-term trend signals are bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger to watch has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.  First support lies at 3313.2, the May 5 low.      

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave                 

• RES 4: $38.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.229 - 1.764 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing 
• PRICE: $36.211 @ 08:14 BST Jun 6 
• SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: $33.030/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and this week’s strong gains reinforce this condition. The metal has recently cleared a number of important resistance points. Yesterday’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.229 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.