MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Corrective Phase Remains in CAD

Price Signal Summary – Corrective Phase Remains in CAD

• E-mini S&P sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. This puts price well clear of support at the 20-day EMA, at 6329.81, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures faltered Friday, with short-term weakness resulting in a break of the bear trigger. Having shown below 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 becomes the area of downside interest.
• A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798. A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.27. A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now - despite Friday’s rally. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1.
• WTI futures fell for a third session into the Monday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact.            
• Bund futures traded sharply higher Friday - and constructively to begin this week. Prices have topped the 50-day EMA of 130.11 - reinforcing a bullish theme. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. Gilt futures traded higher again Monday, building on the gains posted through Friday’s sharp rally. This marks an acceleration of the current bull cycle - with prices breaching resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high as well as 92.74.

Tech Focus: The USD Index (DXY) remains in a bear cycle and in July pierced a key long-term support at 96.55 - a trendline drawn from the May 2011 low. Trend signals highlight a number of important technical conditions.  

• On a monthly, weekly and daily scale, an oversold condition has been highlighted .  
• This does not mean that a trendline break (if confirmed) isn’t important and that the downtrend cannot extend.
• However, the oversold position does raise the possibility that either; a correction unfolds soon, or that the pace of the trend slows down. 
• As is always the case in such situations, the momentum/oversold position is merely a warning sign for chartists. A reversal signal in price is required to highlight a base.
• July could prove to be a key month. Based on the close, a bullish engulfing candle pattern has developed.
• This is regarded as a strong reversal signal and the fact that it has occurred at the trendline, strengthens the importance of the pattern.
• Furthermore, it also suggests that the daily, weekly and monthly time scales are in sync - a bullish signal.  
• Key support is at the July low of 96.38 and this price point represents an important pivot point.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle    

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1617 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1554 @ 08:11 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

Despite Friday's rally, EURUSD maintains a bearish tone. The recent breach of key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1548, highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. This opens 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1617, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal. This week’s price action highlights a key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.1401, Jul 30 low. A break would resume the downtrend.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone  

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3448/1.3589 50-day EMA / High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16
• PRICE: 1.3284 @ 08:12 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.3000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now - despite Friday’s rally. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. Sights are on 1.3144, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3041, the Apr 14 low. Firm resistance is 1.3448, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a reversal.               

EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Signals A Bullish Turn    

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8696 @ 08:14 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8597. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat. 

USDJPY TECHS: Cracks Support

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 147.18 @ 08:16 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 146.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 146.53 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY reversed sharply from Friday’s intraday high and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. While the pullback in prices Friday may have been corrective, the break and close below 147.63, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 170.16 @ 08:20 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 2: 169.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.27. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6470 @ 08:22 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness. Last week, the pair traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.         

USDCAD TECHS: Slips Sharply on USD Downdraft

• RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3779 @ 08:26 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.3716/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signaling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3716, the 20-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Tops 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.53 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 130.38 @ 07:14 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures traded sharply higher Friday - and constructively to begin this week. Prices have topped the 50-day EMA of 130.11 - reinforcing a bullish theme. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. Price has recovered and this key support remains intact, for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. Key support to watch is 128.84, the Jul 25 low.                                                        

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Tops First Resistance

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.641 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.710 Intraday high        
• PRICE: 117.620 @ 07:23 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Price continues to recover after the spell of weakness through late July. Bobl futures are now through first resistance of 117.641 (the 50-day EMA), improving the short-term outlook. The bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. A continuation higher would open 118.030, the Jul 22 high. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now                                   

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.242 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.182 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.160 @ 07:21 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.182. The 50-day EMA is at 107.242. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Accelerates                          

• RES 4: 93.13 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 92.83 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 92.77/79 Intraday high/High Jul 4
• PRICE: 92.68 @ Close Aug 4
• SUP 1: 91.86 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 91.44/08 Intraday low / 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29       

Gilt futures traded higher again Monday, building on the gains posted through Friday’s sharp rally. This marks an acceleration of the current bull cycle - with prices breaching resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high as well as 92.74, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. The 76.4% retracement is at 93.13. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.62 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 121.43 @ 07:30 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Through Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5344.79/5449.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 27   
• PRICE: 5279.00 @ 07:31 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: 5173.01 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 1: 5166.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures faltered Friday, with short-term weakness resulting in a break of the bear trigger. Having shown below 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 becomes the area of downside interest. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Corrective Pullback Extends     

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 6272.25 @ 07:33 BST Aug 5  
• SUP 1: 6253.85 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg
• SUP 4: 6198.68 50-day EMA 

Equities sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. This puts price well clear of support at the 20-day EMA, at 6329.81, signalling scope for a deeper retracement toward the 50-day EMA at 6187.68. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Extends Post-NFP Weakness

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $68.75 @ 07:28 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $68.05/65.06 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures slipped sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print and extended losses into the Monday close. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. 

WTI TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle Concludes

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.33 @ 07:42 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: $65.48/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures fell for a third session into the Monday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level at the close. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. 

GOLD TECHS: Returns Higher

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3385.4/3439.0 - High Aug 4 / 23             
• PRICE: $3366.9 @ 07:44 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.            

SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.349 @ 07:50 BST Aug 5  
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the recent unconstructive price action. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.604 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.