MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Corrective Gold Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary – Corrective Gold Cycle Intact

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6800.30, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement. A bullish trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 5577.05.
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD reinforces current bearish conditions and the latest recovery appears corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A softer short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The breach of the 50-day EMA this week undermines a recent bullish theme.
• A corrective bear cycle in Gold remains intact for now. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support around the 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA. The latest pullback in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a bullish corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.91, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
• A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent shallow correction reinforces this theme - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.  

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce      

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1590 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1552 High Nov 6 
• PRICE: 1.1535 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD has recovered from its recent lows. The move higher is considered corrective and this is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The trend condition remains bearish. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open key 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1590, the 20-day EMA.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Unwinding A Oversold Trend Condition         

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3348 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3244 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3162 High Nov 3  
• PRICE: 1.3119 @ 06:33 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 and 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

Recent weakness in GBPUSD reinforces current bearish conditions and the latest recovery appears corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3244. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for an extension towards 1.2971. The bear trigger lies at 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8830 High Nov 5 
• PRICE: 0.8792 @ 06:50 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8751 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8714 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A fresh cycle high on Wednesday in EURGBP reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 154.48 High Nov 4 
• PRICE: 153.44 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: 152.46 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29   
• SUP 3: 150.66 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17 

The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would pave the way for a climb towards 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.46, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper corrective retracement.  

EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend 

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.96 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: 175.71 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 175.20/174.82 50-day EMA / Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.67 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for an extension towards 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.20. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6665 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6538/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6484 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

A softer short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The breach of the 50-day EMA this week undermines a recent bullish theme. This has exposed the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. Initial resistance to monitor is at 0.6538, the 50-day EMA.       

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The Channel Top      

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4143 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low & High Nov 5
• PRICE: 1.4114 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.4019 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3948 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3867 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. and this week’s extension strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached 1.4080, the Oct 16 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.4143, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. It remains intact, however, a clear break of it would open 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First support lies at 1.4019, the 20-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play                 

• RES 4: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing 
• RES 3: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.07 High Oct 24 
• RES 1: 129.47/129.73 High Nov 5 / High Oct 28     
• PRICE: 129.06 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: 128.96 Low Nov 5      
• SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The print below a key support at 129.14, the 50-day EMA, signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support is 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance    
• RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24   
• PRICE: 118.070 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 118.010 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle    
• SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10   
• SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle 

A short-term bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now.The move down that started Oct 17 still appears corrective and this has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. However, support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.157, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 117.900, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now       

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.096/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.025 @ 05:10 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Oct 30 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. A short-term bear cycle remains intact - for now. The downleg that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at 107.096, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback             

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4  
• PRICE: 93.41 @ Close Nov 6
• SUP 1: 92.96 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 3: 92.22 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11   

The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent shallow correction reinforces this theme - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would unwind this condition. Initial firm support is at 92.96, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) In A Corrective Cycle      

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.17 @ Close Nov 6
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 5826.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5742.00 High Oct 29 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 5628.00 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 5577.05 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 5566.00 Bear channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low 
• SUP 3: 5497.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 5458.00 Low Sep 26      

A bullish trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 5577.05. Support below the EMA lies at 5566.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A breach of this level and the 50-day EMA, is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on resistance and the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Exposes The 50-Day EMA          

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6845.75/6953.75 High Nov 5 / High Oct 30 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6761.75 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 6732.00 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 6708.51 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6690.75 Low Oct 22 
• SUP 4: 6571.25 Low Oct 17

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6800.30, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the 50-day EMA at 6708.51 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Bull Flag          

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $64.09 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $62.84/59.97 - Low Nov 6 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The latest pullback in Brent futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.62. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of it would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support lies at $59.97, Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Short-Term Price Pattern        

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $60.04 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: $58.83/55.96 - Low Nov 6 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The latest pullback in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a bullish corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.91, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.    

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31                 
• PRICE: $4006.0 @ 07:24 GMT Nov 7 
• SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $3875.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

A corrective bear cycle in Gold remains intact for now. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support around the 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3875.8 - a key pivot support. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.                     

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $48.713 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $46.238/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.238.A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.