MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Test Range Base

Price Signal Summary - Range Base In Bunds Holds For Now  

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle high today as the contract begins the week on a bullish note. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6477.31, a 1.618 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6302.01. The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.                                 
• In FX, EURUSD is trading lower today but continues to hold on to the bulk of its latest gains and a bullish theme remains intact. A pullback between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1559. Note that trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger. GBPUSD continues to trade below last week’s high and remains softer for now. Attention is on the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1. This would open 1.3335 initially, the May 20 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, however, a corrective phase that started Jul 16 has resulted in a retracement from recent highs. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 146.01, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, the latest recovery opens 149.18, the Jul 16 high, a break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.                              
• On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low. In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.77. A clear break  of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.                 
• In the FI space, Bund futures  traded lower Friday, extending the reversal from the Jul 22 high. The move down resulted in a print below key support and a bear trigger, at 129.08, the Jul 14 low. The 129.00 handle represents a key area of support and a clear break of it would represent an important bearish development. It marks the base of a 3.5-month range. Initial key resistance to watch is 129.97, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures have pulled back from the Jul 22 high. For now the contract remains above its recent lows. A rally early last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1917 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1790/1829 High Jul 7 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1747 @ 06:08 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.1684 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1559/57 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD continues to hold on to the bulk of its latest gains and a bullish theme remains intact. A pullback between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1559. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3627 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3589 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.3429 @ 08:18 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3407/3365 Intraday low / Low Jul 16 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

GBPUSD continues to trade below last week’s high and remains softer for now. Attention is on the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1. This would open 1.3335 initially, the May 20 low. Note that a break of 1.3365 would also confirm a breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low - cancelling a false break scenario. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high.              

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8769 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8743 @ 06:47 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8692/46 Low Jul 25 / 20- day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8576 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s  climb reinforces this theme. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The cross has breached key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high, strengthening a bull theme. Sights are on 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 0.8646, the 20-day EMA.  

USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Holds

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.21/149.18 Intraday high / High Jul 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 147.83 @ 08:19 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 146.76 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.01/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24 
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, however, a corrective phase that started Jul 16 has resulted in a retracement from recent highs. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 146.01, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for stronger reversal and open 145.16, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, the latest recovery opens 149.18, the Jul 16 high, a break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 173.63 @ 07:57 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 171.47 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.81 Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: 169.77 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 4: 168.76 50-day EMA   

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and the cross continues to appreciate. A fresh cycle high today, maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on the 174.00 handle next. Support to watch lies at 171.47, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6625 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 0.6552 @ 08:08 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.6544 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6505/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17  
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

Last week’s fresh trend highs in AUDUSD reinforce bullish conditions and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Gains have resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This marks a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6505. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.       

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Appear Corrective 

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3729/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3710 @ 08:09 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Despite a recovery from last week’s lows, the trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains appear corrective. Resistance at 1.3728, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Pierces The Range Base                              

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.19/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 129.97 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.27 @ 05:43 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures traded lower Friday, extending the reversal from the Jul 22 high. The move down has resulted in a print below key support and a bear trigger, at 129.08, the Jul 14 low. The 129.00 handle represents a key area of support and a clear break of it would represent an important bearish development. It marks the base of a 3.5-month range. A resumption of weakness would open 128.40, the Apr 9 low.  Initial resistance to watch is 129.97, the 20-day EMA.                                                      

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support                            

• RES 4: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 117.698 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 117.623 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.350 High Jul 25      
• PRICE: 117.140 @ 06:19 BST Jul 28 
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25  
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)         

Bobl futures traded in a volatile manner last week and the contract pulled back from its Jul 22 high. The reversal cancels a recent bullish theme and attention turns to key short-term support at 117.200, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. The level has been breached, strengthening a bear theme and note too that the 117.000 handle has also been pierced. Sights are on 116.840, the Mar 18 low (cont). Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.623, the 20-day EMA.                                  

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Has Cleared Key Support                                   

• RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 107.278 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.205/243 Low Jul 18 / 20-day EMA 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 107.120 Jul 11 low and recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.055 @ 06:19 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

Schatz futures traded sharply lower last week resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 7. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.993, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 107.120, the Jul 11 low.                                                                   

GILT TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                            

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 92.74 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 92.42 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg   
• RES 1: 91.92/92.15 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
• PRICE: 91.47 @ Close Jul 25 
• SUP 1: 91.18/91.08 Low Jul 24 / 18 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29   
• SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23        

Gilt futures have pulled back from the Jul 22 high. For now the contract remains above its recent lows. A rally early last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.                                        

 BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle    

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.65 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 120.21@ Close Jul 25
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play. Friday’s volatile session resulted in a break of support at 119.84, the Jul 14 low. A continuation of the bear cycle would open 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 120.65, the 20-day EMA. A break of this EMA would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (U5) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111-28   High Jul 3 
• RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22 
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-24+ @ 11:00 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures are trading closer to their most recent lows having pulled back from Tuesday’s high. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, strengthening the recovery. Note too that resistance at 111-13+, Jul 10 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Key support to watch is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                    

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5441.00 High Jul 24   
• PRICE: 5436.00 @ 06:34 BST Jul 28 
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Starting The Week On A Bullish Note      

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6457.75 Intraday high      
• PRICE: 6456.75 @ 07:26 BST Jul 28  
• SUP 1: 6391.50/6302.01 Low Jul 24 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6241.00 Low Jul 16    
• SUP 3: 6153.14 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6130.75 Low Jun 25  

S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle high today as the contract begins the week on a bullish note. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6153.14. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6302.01.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $68.97 @ 07:12 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

The trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged and a bearish theme remains present. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to signal scope for further weakness. The contract has pierced support at the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has also been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci point.             

WTI TECHS: (U5) Still Looking For Weakness               

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $69.41/75.98 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $65.76 @ 07:19 BST Jul 28 
• SUP 1: $64.75/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.77. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.     

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Weakness Considered Corrective                                          

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3439.0 - High Jul 23             
• PRICE: 3340.3 @ 07:25 BST Jul 28 
• SUP 1: $3323.2 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.           

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence                      

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.301 @ 08:12 BST Jul 28  
• SUP 1: $37.809 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $36.382 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $35.285 - Low Jun 24  
• SUP 4: $33.967 - Low Jun 3

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish. Gains early last week reinforce current trend conditions - the metal traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.809, the 20-day EMA.