MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Remain in Clear Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Remain in Clear Downtrend

• A pullback in S&P E-Minis has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This strengthens a short-term bear threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5681.57, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. A fresh cycle high on Dec 16 reinforces the bull theme. The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6599, has been pierced.
• The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and today’s bearish start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. The break to a fresh cycle low today confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Recent activity in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 1.1919 - High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance   
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18 
• RES 2: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1804 High Dec 16 and a key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1718 @ 06:24 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.1703/1675 Low Dec 17 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1644 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1591 Low Dec 2

The trend in EURUSD remains bullish and the latest outback appears corrective. A recent reversal signal on the daily chart highlighted scope for a pullback - the candle pattern on Dec 16 is a shooting star formation. Note that a  correction is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The first important support lies at 1.1675, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1804, the Dec 16 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1    
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17  
• RES 2: 1.3456 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 1.3452 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3396 @ 06:34 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
• SUP 2: 1.3300 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. A fresh cycle high on Dec 16 reinforces the bull theme. Attention is on 1.3452 (pierced), 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is 1.3300, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would highlight a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8746 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 0.8735/21 Low Dec 18 / 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The bull cycle in EURGBP that started Dec 9 remains in place and highlights a possible reversal of the Nov 14 - Dec 9 corrective phase. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement,and open 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.         

USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 157.35 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 155.71/154.29 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.29, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. 

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Channel Resistance 

• RES 4: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 185.77 2.5000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 185.05 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 1: 184.88 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 184.38 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 181.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.66 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 178.48 Low Nov 12
• SUP 4: 176.92 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and Friday’s impulsive rally strengthens current conditions, and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 185.05, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. This level also represents a key resistance point. On the downside, First key support to watch lies at 181.80, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would signal the start of a corrective cycle.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6661/86 High Dec 16 / 10
• PRICE: 0.6636 @ 07:35 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: 0.6593 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 0.6568 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6599, has been pierced. The 50-day average is at 0.6568. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28  
• RES 3: 1.3920 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3865 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3823 High Dec 11  
• PRICE: 1.3780 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.3730 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
• SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent move down and note that price is holding on to the bulk of its latest downleg. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bearish continuation pattern. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3865, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Fresh Cycle Low                      

• RES 4: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 128.40 Low Dec 2    
• RES 2: 128.01 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 127.52 High Dec 19            
• PRICE: 126.77 @ 05:37 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: 126.76 Intraday low          
• SUP 2: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support  
• SUP 3: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.20 3.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and today’s bearish start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. The break to a fresh cycle low today confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 126.53 next, the Mar 11 low (cont.). Initial firm resistance is seen at 128.01, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a corrective bounce.                

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points South         

• RES 4: 116.770 High Dec 3 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 116.580 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 116.326 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 116.120 High Dec 19   
• PRICE: 115.800 @ 06:08 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish following a recent impulsive sell-off. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Key resistance is seen at 116.770, the Dec 3 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 116.326.       

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Bearish Cycle           

• RES 4: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 106.900 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 106.816 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 106.790 High Dec 17 / 18  
• PRICE: 106.690 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 106.675/ 630 Low Dec 12 / 10 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.816, the 20-day EMA. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Resistance Intact For Now                     

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.78/93 High Dec 17 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 90.74 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent activity in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Bearish Outlook      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.34/77 High Dec 17 / 3   
• PRICE: 119.70 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 119.52 Intraday low           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

Recent gains in BTP futures appear to have been a correction. The contract did trade above initial resistance at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension towards 120.77, the Dec 3 high. On the downside, attention is on key support at 119.13, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Bullish Engulfing Candle     

• RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 5868.01 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 5847.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 5822.00 High Dec 12         
• PRICE: 5779.00 @ 06:39 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 5681.57 50-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5622.00 Low Nov 26 
• SUP 3: 5546.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Nov 21 and a bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5681.57, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. This would open 5622.00, the Nov 26 low. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 5847.00, the Nov 13 high. Last Thursday’s price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal.  

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Trading Above Key Short-Term Support  

• RES 4: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing   
• RES 3: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 6932.25/6988.00 High Dec 15 / 12
• RES 1: 6832.25 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 6908.50 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 6771.50 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally 
• SUP 3: 6678.58 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21  

The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. This would open 6737.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.             

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Corrective Gains             

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.65/65.25 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $61.18 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: $58.72 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.72 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and for now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $58.11, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $62.65, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (G6) Trading Below Resistance        

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $58.74 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $57.22 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.74, the 50- day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend          

• RES 4: $4500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $4493.7 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing 
• RES 2: $4441.3 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing 
• RES 1: $4420.3 - Intraday high                    
• PRICE: $4412.3 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: $4240.5 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: $4115.7 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The metal has traded through the psychological $4400.0 handle and this opens $4441.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4240.5, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                        

SILVER TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: $71.771 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $70.729 - 2.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: $70.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $69.687 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing   
• PRICE: $69.008 @ 06:11 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $64.493 - Low Dec 19  
• SUP 2: $60.305 - 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: $54.931 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $51.309 - Low Nov 26 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and another fresh cycle high, today, reinforces bullish conditions. This also maintains the current impulsive nature of the rally. Note that moving average studies are in a bull position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on $69.687 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the psychological $70.00 handle. Initial firm support is at $60.305, the 20-day EMA.