MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Breach Bear Trigger

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Breach Bear Trigger

• The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its latest highs. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00.
• A bearish threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. GBPUSD traded higher last week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. Sights are on 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. USDCAD remains subdued, despite the recent shallow recovery. Attention is on support around the 20-day EMA, at 1.3758. A clear break of this EMA would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. This sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• Bund futures traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of support at 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday, alongside global bonds. The move down resulted in a print below key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This once again highlights a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 90.59. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Latest Highs

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1709 @ 05:53 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.1583 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD is trading at its latest highs and a short-term bullish outlook remains intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1583, the 50-day EMA. Major support below rests at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3595 High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3560 @ 06:18 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.3493 Low Aug 13  
• SUP 2: 1.3445 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Low Aug 11  
• SUP 4: 1.3346 Low Aug 7     

GBPUSD traded higher last week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. Sights are on 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. A break of this retracement would strengthen the short-term bull theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3445, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would signal a possible reversal.  

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28  
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8654 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8631 @ 06:50 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP has breached a key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8615. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal of the uptrend between May 29 and Jul 28. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
• PRICE: 147.39 @ 07:11 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.51 100-dma
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg

A bearish threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.58, a trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of this level would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Still Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.36 @ 07:58 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 170.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The underlying bull trend in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.10. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:06 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is trading inside a range. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. Key resistance to monitor, has been defined at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low.  

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1 and a bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3798 @ 08:24 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.3722 Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 
• SUP 3: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

USDCAD remains subdued, despite the recent shallow recovery. Attention is on support around the 20-day EMA, at 1.3758. A clear break of this EMA would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. This would expose 1.3576, the Jul 23 low. Key medium-term support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. For bulls, a break of 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, would cancel a bear threat and resume the recent bull cycle.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support 

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 129.97/130.06 50-day EMA / High Aug 14   
• RES 2: 129.72 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.98 Low Aug 12  
• PRICE: 128.81 @ 05:27 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of support at 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.97, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.72.  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat 

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.546 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.405 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.030 @ 05:42 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

A strong sell-off in Bobl futures on Friday highlights a bearish threat, once again. The contract is trading at the bottom-end of the recent range and has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.849, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is 117.546, the 50-day EMA. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 107.190 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.114 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.010 @ 06:18 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Friday, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Initial resistance is 107.114, the 20-day EMA. 

GILT TECHS: (U5) Trades Through Support 

• RES 4: 92.84 High Aug 5 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11       
• RES 2: 92.05 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 91.68 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 91.10 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 90.91 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 90.59 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 90.46 Low May 23   
• SUP 4: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support        

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday, alongside global bonds. The move down resulted in a print below key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This once again highlights a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 90.59, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 92.05, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.17 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and Friday’s sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Testing Resistance 

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5491.00 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 5478.00 @ 06:47BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 5363.22 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5345.89 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5249.00 Low Aug 5   

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its latest highs. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5345.89, the 50-day EMA. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6543.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
• PRICE: 6470.25 @ 07:24 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 6392.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6267.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6392.29, the 20-day EMA, and 6267.88, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Bear Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.06 @ 07:16 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (U5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $75.98 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $70.51 - High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.22 @ 07:44 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $61.94 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA. 

GOLD TECHS: In A Range

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3351.1 @ 08:33 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. This sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.             

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Still In Play

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.081 @ 08:38 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.038. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.