MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Pullback Looks Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Latest Bund Pullback Looks Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend.                 
• Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A fresh cycle high last week, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play - for now. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point north and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6413, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for an extension towards $67.14 next, a Fibonacci retracement.           
• The latest pullback in Bund futures still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, resuming their short-term uptrend, strengthening the current bullish theme. This also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact                     

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1495 High June 05
• PRICE: 1.1415 @ 06:01 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.1356 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1232/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is unchanged and continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach of 1.1419, May 26 high, confirmed an extension of the current bull cycle and sights are on 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1232, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is 1.1356, the 20-day EMA.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective   

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5    
• PRICE: 1.3484 @ 16:13 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3306 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A fresh cycle high last week, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3306.    

EURGBP TECHS: Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA   

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8502 38.2% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8469 High Jun 10 and intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8467 @ 06:35 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to its gains. The recovery has resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8441, the 50-day EMA. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal and exposes 0.8541, the May 2 high. For bears, support to watch lies at 0.8356, the May 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. Initial support has been defined at 0.8407, the Jun 4 low.   

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle    

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.29/146.28 High Jun 10 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 145.00 @ 06:53 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play - for now. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. MA studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: 167.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24         
• RES 1: 165.81 Intraday high
• PRICE: 165.61 @ 07:11 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: 163.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 162.95 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The cross has breached key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, and traded to a fresh cycle high today. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support lies at 163.78, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition     

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6538 High June 5
• PRICE: 0.6511 @ 07:56 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 0.6464/6413 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point north and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6413, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3892/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3772 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3677 @ 08:03 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 2024        
• SUP 2: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024 

The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3579 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3892 - a key level. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3772.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish                          

• RES 4: 132.00 Round number resistance               
• RES 3: 131.85 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.50 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.47 High Jun 5                       
• PRICE: 130.82 @ 05:34 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 130.12 Jun 5 low              
• SUP 2: 129.30/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14  
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9 

The latest pullback in Bund futures still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a key resistance. Key short-term support to watch is 128.97, the May 14 low. First support lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.                                              

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                        

• RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22           
• RES 2: 118.300 High May 7  
• RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3 / 5   
• PRICE: 117.820 @ 05:39 BST Jun 11  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the sharp pullback on May 5 - for now - still appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a correction in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low. The bull trigger is 118.280, Jun 3 / 5 high.                           

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading At Its Recent Lows                        

• RES 4: 107.830 High Apr 22  
• RES 3: 107.690 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.320/475 Low May 29 / High May 27 
• PRICE: 107.255 @ 06:02 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 107.195 Low Jun 6    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract remains in a bull cycle, however, the sharp sell-off on Jun 5  does undermine the bull theme. A resumption of gains would highlight the fact that the retracement has been a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 107.475, the May 27 high. A break would be a bullish development. For bears, an extension lower would instead expose the key support at 107.125, the May 12 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Extends                         

• RES 4: 93.26 1.500 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 92.87 High Jun 10   
• PRICE: 92.66 @ Close Jun 10
• SUP 1: 92.33/91.56 Low Jun 10 / 9 
• SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support        

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, resuming their short-term uptrend, strengthening the current bullish theme. This also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. The climb signals scope for a continuation higher and sights are on the 93.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.56, the Jun 9 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.                                  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points North                                        

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 121.37 High Jun 9 
• PRICE: 121.19 @ Close Jun 10 
• SUP 1: 120.24 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

A bullish condition in BTP futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.24 the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5406.00 @ 06:23 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: 5373.48 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5291.25 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5205.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Uptrend Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6052.25 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 6028.75 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11  
• SUP 1: 5910.19/5808.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support to watch lies at 5808.04, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $70.08 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $68.00 - High Jun 10 
• PRICE: $66.88 @ 07:10 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play. The latest round of gains has resulted in a break of resistance at $65.45, the 50-day EMA. The continuation higher exposes $70.08, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Support to watch lies at $62.09, the May 30 low. A break would be bearish.        

WTI TECHS: (N5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat          

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $67.14 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: $66.28 - Intraday high 
• PRICE: $65.08 @ 07:21 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for an extension towards $67.14 next, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low. A break would highlight a potential bearish reversal.  

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Weakness Appears Corrective                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3403.5 - High Jun 5         
• PRICE: $3336.1 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: $3245.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, the next support to monitor is $3245.6, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Intact                 

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.546 @ 08:05 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: $33.416/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains plus Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.