MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Dips Seen as Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Bund Dips Seen as Corrective

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Today’s gains have delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend.
• EURUSD is trading lower again, today. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the more important support at 1.1156, the 50-day EMA. A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. AUDUSD trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend.                  
• Recent gains in Gold signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.60, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal.          
• A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Recent gains suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends                    

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1419 High May 26 and a bull trigger     
• PRICE: 1.1244 @ 06:14 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.1210 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.1156/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is trading lower again, today. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the more important support at 1.1156, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions are bullish, however, a clear break of the EMA would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1065, the May 12 low. On the upside, a break of 1.1419, the May 26 high, would be bullish.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Support At The 20-Day EMA   

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3435 @ 06:27 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.3376 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3212 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3:  1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

The trend condition in GBPUSDremains bullish and the pullback from Monday’s high appears corrective. First key support lies at 1.3376, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3212. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.    

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9  
• RES 1: 0.8444 50-day EMA and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8369 @ 06:40 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 0.8355 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA at 0.8444. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and shift attention to resistance at 0.8541, the May 2 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 146.28 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 145.91 @ 07:00 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 143.85/142.12 Low May 28 / 27 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is trading higher today. The latest recovery has cleared a number of important short-term resistance points - today’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 145.64. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal and open 148.65, the May 12 high and bull trigger. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. Support to watch is 142.12, the May 27 low. A break would resume the recent bear leg.   

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger   

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 164.19 @ 07:13 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 162.40/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY has recovered from its lows and the cross is trading higher again, today. The leg higher undermines the recent bearish theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. The move higher also signals a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective  

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26  
• PRICE: 0.6432 @ 07:59 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 0.6381/74 50-day EMA / 1.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6381, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal.  

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Remains Bearish And Gains Appear Corrective  

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3972/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3872 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3827 @ 08:03 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.3686 Low May 26   
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached support at 1.3751, the May 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 1.3600 handle while further out, the move down opens 1.3420, the Sep 25 ‘24 low. Initial resistance is 1.3872, the 20-day EMA.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Outlook Remains Bullish                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.72 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.22 High May 27                     
• PRICE: 130.47 @ 08:01 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 130.39 Intraday low              
• SUP 2: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.02 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Recent gains suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact                    

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 119.250 High May 23
• PRICE: 118.860 @ 06:06 BST May 29 
• SUP 1: 118.728/390 50-day EMA / Low May 22
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures continues to highlight a reversal and the end of the Apr 22 - May 15 corrective cycle. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance.  On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support                                      

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.405/550 High May 27 / High May 7 and 23
• PRICE: 107.280 @ 06:16 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 107.195/070 Low May 22 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

The bull cycle in Schatz futures that started May 13, remains intact. Resistance at 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, has been cleared. The break signals a stronger reversal and exposes 107.550, the May 7 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a deeper pullback would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present                       

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87/89 High May 20 / 27 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 90.97 @ Close May 28
• SUP 1:90.46 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.                                 

BTP TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                                      

• RES 4: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance         
• PRICE: 120.77 @ Close May 28 
• SUP 1: 120.01 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.45/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
• SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens the 121.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 119.45, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low.               

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Approaching Key Resistance 

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5452.00 @ 06:29 BST May 29 
• SUP 1: 5329.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5244.11 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5244.11, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6005.75 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 5994.25 @ 07:25 BST May 29 
• SUP 1: 5804.59/5734.85 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Today’s gains have delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5734.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs   

• RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $65.49/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: $65.29 @ 07:11 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $62.80/57.78 - Low May 23 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. The medium-term trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish -  recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $65.49, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Pierces The 50-Day EMA       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.60/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21
• PRICE: $62.79 @ 07:19 BST May 29 
• SUP 1: $60.02/54.33 - Low May 23 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.60, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a bearish signal. 

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend                                 

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3365.9 - High May 23        
• PRICE: $3273.5 @ 07:25 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $3206.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

Recent gains in Gold signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Structure Remains Bullish               

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
• PRICE: $33.156 @ 08:06 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $31.651 -  Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.