MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Cycle Lows

Price Signal Summary – Bund Cycle Lows

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest selloff appears corrective - for now. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 6730.32, has been pierced, however, price is once again trading above the average. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. However, the latest pullback suggests the start of a corrective phase. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA.
• GBPUSD continues to trade below a key short-term resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3208. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3309. USDJPY is holding on to the bulk of recent gains. A bullish trend structure remains intact. The pair has breached 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. A S/T bear theme in USDCAD remains intact following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4166 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11.                           
• Gold is trading below last week’s high. The downleg between Oct 20 and 28, appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
• A strong sell-off in Bund futures last week reinforces the current bearish condition and the contract is trading at its cycle lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Gilt futures gapped sharply lower on Friday. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1598 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is trading below last week’s high. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level would strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and suggests that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend          

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3309 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3208/16 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3141 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.3085/10 Low Nov 12 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

GBPUSD continues to trade below a key short-term resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3208. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3309. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal would signal the end of the correction and a resumption of the downtrend. The bear trigger is 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low.                   

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8827 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.8777 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 0.8734 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8777, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight the start of a corrective phase.     

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 155.04 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 154.65 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 153.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 151.43 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

USDJPY is holding on to the bulk of recent gains. A bullish trend structure remains intact. The pair has breached 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 153.30, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 181.70 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 179.97 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 179.68 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: 177.72/175.99 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 174.30 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. Recent strength has resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 180.37, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 177.72, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Highlights A Reversal 

• RES 4: 0.6648 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6580 High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6535 @ 09:03 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

AUDUSD continues to trade below last week's high. Recent gains undermine a bearish theme, however, note that last Thursday’s activity also highlights a potential bearish reversal signal - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle. Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A break of this level would cancel the candle pattern. A sell-off would instead expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.         

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Theme     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4140/66 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 1: 1.4057 High Nov 10  
• PRICE: 1.4017 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 1.3965 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3889 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low  
• SUP 4: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support

A S/T bear theme in USDCAD remains intact following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4166 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11, highlighting scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3889. Initial key support to watch is 1.3965, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Leg Extends                  

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 128.80 Low Nov 10       
• PRICE: 128.57 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: 128.50 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A strong sell-off in Bund futures last week reinforces the current bearish condition and the contract is trading at its cycle lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme      

• RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24       
• RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28   
• RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5  118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 117.960/118.133 Low Nov 10 / 50-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 117.840 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 117.800 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1  
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support 

The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.133, the 50-day EMA.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Southbound       

• RES 4: 107.235 High Oct 22
• RES 3: 107.175 High Oct 24 
• RES 2: 107.046/078 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 107.010 Low Oct 30   
• PRICE: 106.965 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 106.965 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 106.960 Low Oct 2  
• SUP 3: 106.945 Low Oct 1
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces bearish conditions. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.046, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 107.078. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term resistance zone.            

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle               

• RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 93.07 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 92.85 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 92.44 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 92.12 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 91.94 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
• SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg  

Gilt futures gapped sharply lower on Friday. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme.         

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle        

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.72 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.                    

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback Exposes Key Support 

• RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5859.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 2: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 5691.00 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 5637.00 Low Nov 14    
• SUP 2: 5604.85 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5599.00 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low 
• SUP 4: 5497.00 Low Oct 14     

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. However, the latest pullback suggests the start of a corrective phase. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 5604.85, and 5599.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. These two price points represent key support. A break would highlight a stronger reversal.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Doji Reversal Candle             

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger 
• RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12 
• RES 1: 6804.35 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 6780.75 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 6670.50 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 2: 6655.50 Low Nov 7 & key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest selloff appears corrective - for now. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 6730.32, has been pierced, however, price is once again trading above the average. The  next key support to watch is 6655.50, the Nov 7 low. Friday’s price pattern is a doji candle - a reversal signal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6900.50, the Nov 12 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Intact For Now           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.78 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A sell-off in Brent futures last Wednesday highlights a bearish development. An extension lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Bearish While Resistance Remains Intact         

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.45 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 15 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                  
• PRICE: $4075.8 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: $4032.3 - Low Nov 14  
• SUP 2: $3927.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 3800.00 Round number support

Gold is trading below last week’s high. The downleg between Oct 20 and 28, appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. Key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3927.5. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would pave the way for a test of $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.                    

SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $51.242 @ 08:15 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $49.604 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $47.274/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $47.274. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.