MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bull Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bund Bull Cycle Intact

• Trend conditions in S&P E-Minis are unchanged, they remain bullish. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5624.12. A continuation higher would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg.
• GBPUSD is unchanged. Recent weakness appears corrective and the pair continues to trade inside a range with support at 1.3249, the 20-day EMA, intact.  A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.23, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal. AUDUSD has pulled back from Wednesday’s high. Bullish conditions remain intact and the move down is - for now - considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. 
• Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The rally suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind.        
• Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows. A bull cycle is intact and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Sights are on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Tuesday’s low print resulted in a test of support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.51.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish              

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1323 @ 08:05 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.1281/66 20-day EMA and a key support / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: 1.1144 High Apr 3    
• SUP 3: 1.1069 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

EURUSD is in consolidation mode and is still trading closer to its recent lows. The trend remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend. The latest move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of the uptrend would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1279. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3326 @ 06:05 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.3257 Low May 5   
• SUP 2: 1.3249 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3164/3067 Low Apr 15 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD is unchanged. Recent weakness appears corrective and the pair continues to trade inside a range with support at 1.3249, the 20-day EMA, intact.  A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8492 @ 06:34 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 0.8470/62 50-day EMA / Low May 6  
• SUP 2: 0.8432 Low Apr 4 
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has briefly pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.8470. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible the move down since Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. First key resistance to watch is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.    

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA, Remains Intact

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
• RES 2: 146.23 50-day EMA and key resistance 
• RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
• PRICE: 143.94 @ 06:42 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 141.97 Low Apr 29   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.23, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.   

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support   

• RES 4: 165.97 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.68 @ 06:58 GMT May 8
• SUP 1: 161.73/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6     
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 159.48 Low Apr 9   
• SUP 4: 158.56 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 2 bull leg   

A bullish theme in EURJPY and recent weakness is considered corrective. A print earlier this month above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.73, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the bullish theme. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6411 @ 07:40 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.6383/6337 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD has pulled back from Wednesday’s high. Bullish conditions remain intact and the move down is - for now - considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6337, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4046 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3895 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3866 @ 07:54 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

Bearish conditions in USDCAD remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, first resistance to watch is 1.3895, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                       

• RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing                 
• RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance      
• RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger                    
• PRICE: 131.53 @ 06:43 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 130.58/129.92 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11          
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows. A bull cycle is intact and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Sights are on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, Apr 9 low. A breach of it would alter the picture. First support is 130.58, the 50-day EMA.                                         

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook               

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.450 @ 05:43 BST May 8 
• SUP 1: 119.010 Low May 5      
• SUP 2: 118.701 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Gains in early April resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. Sights are on the 120.000 handle next. On the downside, firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, at 119.137, has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 118.701.                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) MA Studies Highlight An Uptrend                                   

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22                   
• PRICE: 107.495 @ 05:47 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 107.370 Low Apr 17 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Attention is on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at 107.370, the Apr 17 low.                                                        

GILT TECHS: (M5) Finds Support Just Below The 50-Day EMA                    

• RES 4: 94.75 76.4% of the Dec 3 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance       
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.93 High May 2                            
• PRICE: 93.43 @ Close May 7
• SUP 1: 92.79/32 Low May 7 / 6                                       
• SUP 2: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15 
• SUP 3: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9     
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont) 

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Tuesday’s low print resulted in a test of support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.51. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 91.73, the Apr 17 low. A continuation higher would open 94.50, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 93.93, the May 2 high.                              

BTP TECHS: (M5) Resumes Its Uptrend                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 120.53 @ Close May 7 
• SUP 1: 119.50 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and Wednesday’s strong rally reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced short-term resistance at 120.57, the Apr 24 high. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would open 121.00, the Feb 7 high (cont). Firm support to watch lies at 119.50, the 20-day EMA.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Holding On To Its Latest Gains              

• RES 4: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20 
• RES 2: 5341.00 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 5263.01/66.00 76.4% of Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg / High May 5
• PRICE: 5249.00 @ 06:12 BST May 8 
• SUP 1: 5093.95 20-day EMA                      
• SUP 2: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4664.00 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger    

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. This hurdle has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would pave the way for a climb towards 5341.00, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch lies at 5093.95, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Northbound               

• RES 4: 5863.74 200-dma     
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2       
• RES 1: 5724.75 High May 2                               
• PRICE: 5685.50 @ 07:20 BST May 8 
• SUP 1: 5547.58 20-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger

Trend conditions in S&P E-Minis are unchanged, they remain bullish. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5624.12. A continuation higher would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support to watch is 5547.58, the 20-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $63.94/66.93 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $61.62 @ 07:00 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $66.93. Initial resistance is at $63.94, the 20-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (M5) Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $60.95/63.88 - 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• PRICE: $58.55 @ 07:15 BST May 8 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance to watch is $63.88, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed                           

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3355.1 @ 07:13 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $3278.2/3202.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The rally suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.   

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact           

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.380 @ 07:58 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 1
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.