MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bear Phase Seen Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Bund Bear Phase Deemed Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday, as it started the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish. Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bull theme and maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared key resistance and the bull trigger at 177.94, the Oct 10 high, hitting new record highs in the process. The trend in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading above support. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on key resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and bull trigger. Recent gains in AUDUSD reinforces a bull theme. Attention remains on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17.
• Gold is trading lower as it extends the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4045.9, has been breached. The latest recovery in WTI futures appears corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $61.14. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The bear phase that started on Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.45, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact. The recent clearance of 93.17, the Oct 17 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a Fibonacci projection.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now 

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1676/1728 High Oct 20 / 17 and key resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1662 @ 06:07 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.1577/42 Low Oct 22 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

Support in EURUSD remains intact. The level to watch is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. A break of this level is required to cancel a recent bullish signal and this would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Sep 17. A breach would open 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement, and expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to strengthen a bull theme.           

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present      

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3388/3471 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 1.3363 @ 06:17 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present. Recent weakness highlights the end of the corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. A resumption of weakness would expose key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance is at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would instead signal a possible reversal.               

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish       

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8729 @ 06:39 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.8685/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The trend in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading above support. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on key resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The first support to monitor lies at 0.8685, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA  would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. 

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 155.55 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing  
• RES 1: 153.27 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 152.19 @ 07:12 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 151.76 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 151.09 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 149.57 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 149.05 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart 

A bull cycle USDJPY remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Attention is on key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. This would open 153.82, a Fibonacci projection. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. First important support to watch lies at 151.09, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Record High

• RES 4: 180.96 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.23 High Oct 27 / Record High  
• PRICE: 177.37 @ 07:22 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 176.02 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82/42 Low Oct 17 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared key resistance and the bull trigger at 177.94, the Oct 10 high, hitting new record highs in the process and this confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. 178.94, a Fibonacci projection, is the next key upside level. First key support to watch lies at 176.02, the 20-day EMA. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 174.42.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends 

• RES 4: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6574 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6564 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6551 @ 08:06 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

Recent gains in AUDUSD reinforces a bull theme. Attention remains on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. This opens 0.6574 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. A break of this level would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.       

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3999 @ 08:13 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.3970/3914 Low Oct 27 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3836 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19 
• SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger

USDCAD is in consolidation mode and is trading at its recent lows. The trend condition is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3914, the 50-day EMA.     

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Intact For Now                

• RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 130.07/59 High Oct 24 / 17 and the bull trigger    
• PRICE: 129.63 @ 05:44 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 129.29 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 129.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 Bull leg
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The bear phase that started on Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.45, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.08. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention on the key resistance at 130.59, the Oct 17 high.             

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Correction Extends    

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance    
• RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 118.600 High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 118.280 @ 05:45 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 118.153 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle    
• SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10   
• SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle 

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started Oct 17 is - for now - considered corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Attention is on the next important support at 118.153, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at last Friday’s high of 118.600. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle     

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.175 High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.070 @ 06:07 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 117.050 Low Oct 27   
• SUP 2: 107.014 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg    
• SUP 3: 106.995 Low  Oct 8
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Oct 6 

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. For now, the current bear cycle that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. An extension lower would open 107.014, a Fibonacci retracement, and the next important support. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.175, last Friday’s high.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme         

• RES 4: 94.24 1.618proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance        
• RES 2: 93.95 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 93.93 High Oct 22   
• PRICE: 93.65 @ Close Oct 27
• SUP 1: 93.15 Low Oct 27       
• SUP 2: 92.27 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13    

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact. The recent clearance of 93.17, the Oct 17 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a Fibonacci projection. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 92.27, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Recent Pullback Appears Corrective     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 24 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.36 @ Close Oct 27
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.39 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

Bullish trend conditions in BTP futures remain intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high.  Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High  

• RES 4: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5721.00 High Oct 27       
• PRICE: 5709.00 @ 06:27 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 5625.31 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5538.93 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish. Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bull theme and maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5625.31, the 20-day EMA.          

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High       

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 6953.25 2.000 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swinge
• RES 1: 6912.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 6904.50 @ 07:50 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 6812.25/6748.48 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6655.59 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday, as it started the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 6900.00 handle has been cleared, opening 6953.25 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains          

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30 
• RES 1: $66.78 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $65.39 @ 06:59 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: $63.86/60.07 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Brent futures are holding on to the bulk of last week’s gains. The contract has breached resistance around the 50-day EMA, at $65.17. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note that resistance at $66.58, the Oct 9 high, has been pierced. A clear breach of this level would expose key resistance at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.07, the Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $61.19 @ 07:26 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 / 20 
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The latest recovery in WTI futures appears corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $61.14. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20.    

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase Extends        

• RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger                
• PRICE: $3932.5 @ 07:34 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: $3900.0 - 38.2% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg  
• SUP 2: $3838.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

Gold is trading lower as it extends the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4045.9, has been breached, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at $3838.2. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.                     

SILVER TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $46.187 @ 08:17 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: $47.550 - Low Oct 22  
• SUP 2: $45.542 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver are bullish and the latest sharp pullback is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition is overbought and the deeper retracement is allowing this to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $48.757, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $45.595. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high.