MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Metals Theme Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Metals Theme Remains Intact

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6831.93, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has recently cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and a fresh cycle high on Tuesday reinforces the bull theme. Attention is on 1.3452 (pierced), 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. The latest pullback in USDJPY appears corrective. The trend condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A pullback is allowing this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 0.6595, the 20-day EMA.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low has been breached.
• Bund futures are in consolidation mode. A bear cycle is intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Gilt futures have gapped higher today. Recent activity highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement.       

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle    

• RES 4: 1.1919 - High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance   
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18 
• RES 2: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1804 High Dec 16 and a key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1729 @ 06:05 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 1.1720/1658 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1634 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1591 Low Dec 2

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact, however, a short-term reversal signal has appeared on the daily chart. Tuesday’s candle pattern is a shooting star candle formation. If correct, this suggests scope for a pullback near-term. A correction would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. The first important support lies at 1.1658, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1804, the Dec 16 high.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1    
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17  
• RES 2: 1.3456 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 1.3452 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3331 @ 07:34 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 1.3330 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 1.3290 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26      

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and a fresh cycle high on Tuesday reinforces the bull theme. Attention is on 1.3452 (pierced), 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. For now, today’s pullback appears corrective. Initial firm support is 1.3290, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would highlight a bearish development and signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains ABove Support 

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8759 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 0.8721 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The bull cycle in EURGBP that started on Dec 9 highlights a possible reversal of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.         

USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 154.82 @ 16:23 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 154.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The latest pullback in USDJPY appears corrective. The trend condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Support to watch lies at 154.03, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00. 

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 184.63 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 182.23 @ 16:30 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 181.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.09 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.50 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.63, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.20, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 0.6615 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 17 
• SUP 1: 0.6595 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6562 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A pullback is allowing this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 0.6595, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day average lies at 0.6562. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Theme Intact

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28  
• RES 3: 1.3937 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3892 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3823 High Dec 11  
• PRICE: 1.3784 @ 08:12 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep17
• SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
• SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent bearish extension, and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a test of 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3892, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows                      

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 128.08/24 High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.55 @ 05:37 GMT Dec 17 
• SUP 1: 127.05 Low Dec 10         
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.58 3.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures are in consolidation mode. A bear cycle is intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract is still oversold. A stronger corrective bounce would allow this oversold condition to unwind. The price pattern on Dec 10 is a doji candle - a short-term reversal signal.               

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish         

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.429/770 20-day EMA / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 116.100 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 17 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish following a recent impulsive sell-off. Price has breached support at 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Bounce          

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 High Dec 8  
• PRICE: 106.755 @ 06:06 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Approaching Resistance                     

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.78/93 Intraday high / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.57 @ 08:06 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Gilt futures have gapped higher today. Recent activity highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Recovery Extends      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.34/77 Intraday high / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 120.28 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 119.54 Low Dec 12           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

Gains in BTP futures appear corrective. However, the contract has traded above initial resistance at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 120.77, the Dec 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 119.13, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play     

• RES 4: 5902.82 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing      
• RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 5799.00 High Dec 12         
• PRICE: 5736.00 @ 06:23 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 5698.52 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5649.07 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has recently cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this latter price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5649.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. 

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Pierces Support 

• RES 4: 7100.00 Round number support 
• RES 3: 7048.21 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6932.25/6988.00 High Dec 15 / 12    
• PRICE: 6865.00 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 6831.93/6817.50 50-day EMA / Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 6785.50 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally 
• SUP 3: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
• SUP 4: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6831.93, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key support and reversal trigger lies at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Trades Through Key Support            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 62.98/65.25 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $59.78 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 17 
• SUP 1: $58.72 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.72 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this week’s sell-off  reinforces current conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode condition. Key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the bear cycle and opens $58.11, the Apr 9 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $62.98, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (F6) Has Breached Key Support         

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $59.27/65.33 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $56.12 @ 07:13 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: $54.98 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $51.95 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.53. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $59.27, the 50- day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4353.5 - High Dec 12                    
• PRICE: $4321.6 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 17 
• SUP 1: $4206.9/4087.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 4: $3800.00 Round number support

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4087.6. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: $71.771 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $70.000 - Psychological round number  
• RES 2: $68.397 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $66.528 - Intraday high   
• PRICE: $65.730 @ 07:56 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: $58.195 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $53.367/48.644 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 
• SUP 3: $45.557 - Low Oct 28
• SUP 4: $41.135 - Low Sep 17 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and today’s extension reinforces the current bull theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. The metal has also traded through the psychological $60.00 handle. Sights are on $68.397 next, the 2.236 projection of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing.  Initial key support lies at $58.195, the 20-day EMA.