MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish EUR/JPY Phase Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bullish EUR/JPY Phase Intact

• The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA into the Thursday close. Markets hold this point so far this week. The e-mini S&P recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6349.16.
• USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.62.                     
• Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed Friday. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. Gold traded lower early Monday, however the price continues to benefit from the recent soft NFP print and broad USD weakness. This returns prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective.
• Slipping into the Friday close, Bund futures edged back below the 130.00 handle into the close - although the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 wasn’t tested. Gilt futures traded higher again mid-last week, but faltered into the Friday close, and now trades either side of the 20-day EMA. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Holding Pattern Below Cycle High

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1699 High Aug 7
• PRICE: 1.1611 @ 08:01 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

EUR/USD edged higher to a new recovery high Thursday, but has faded since. Price had cleared the post-NFP high to keep the recovery off the late July pullback low intact. This works against the bearish backdrop that had dominated the pullback from 1.1829. The break of firm resistance into 1.1619, the 20-day EMA, is signaling greater odds of a further reversal higher. Major support below rests at 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Tops 50-day EMA on Hawkish BoE

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3589 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3477 Low Aug 11
• PRICE: 1.3439 @ 08:03 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.3000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

Prices traded higher early Monday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, recent price action builds on the gains posted after the break of the 50-day EMA on the hawkish turnout to the August BoE rate decision. This firms the speed of the recovery off the 1.3142 pullback low and signals a greater probability of a bullish reversal. For now, S/T momentum is still pointed higher, with the Jul 24 high of 1.3589 the next notable upside level. While the bounce off the pullback low persists, the more medium-term trend remains bearish - but the risk of a return to recent lows has fallen.

EURGBP TECHS: Returns Lower, But Support Out of Reach

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8639 @ 08:04 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.8612 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

EUR/GBP corrected lower Thursday on the BoE rate decision, which sent prices through the weekly low. Despite the intraday weakness, support to watch remains out of reach for now at the 0.8612 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat. More broadly, the trend set-up is bullish. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Bounce

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 148.31 @ 08:09 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 146.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.63 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.59 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.23 @ 08:11 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 2: 169.71 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.62. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6541/6625 High Aug 7 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6503 @ 08:14 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. 

USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3779 @ 08:15 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday feeding through to further gains on Monday. This follows the weaker-than-expected jobs data last week. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of last Friday’s USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3737 20-day EMA, a break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3744, which aided the rally. This week’s price action, however, has cancelled that bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3824 last. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Rally Fails to Stick 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 129.65 @ 07:24 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Slipping into the Friday close, Bund futures edged back below the 130.00 handle into the close - although the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 wasn’t tested. The 50-day EMA of 130.09 has been pierced to the upside, but the rally failed to stick. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Tops First Resistance

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.600 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.710 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 117.270 @ 07:25 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Following the early August rally, prices have faded slightly off the weekly high but are holding the bulk of the recent strength. Bobl futures have pierced first resistance of 117.600 (the 50-day EMA), improving the short-term outlook. The bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. A continuation higher would open 118.030, the Jul 22 high. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Testing Support

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.214 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.144 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.025 @ 07:26 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.144. The 50-day EMA is at 107.214. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

GILT TECHS: (U5) Either Side of 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 93.21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 93.13 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 92.84 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 92.26 @ Close Aug 11
• SUP 1: 91.87 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 91.44/08 Low Aug 1 / 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29       

Gilt futures traded higher again mid-last week, but faltered into the Friday close, and now trades either side of the 20-day EMA. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Recent gains, however, saw prices breach resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high as well as 92.74, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. The 76.4% retracement is at 93.13. 

BTP TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.70 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 120.87 @ 07:33 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and weakness into the Friday close appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Recovery Firms

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 28   
• PRICE: 5361.00 @ 07:34 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 5166.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 5155.65 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA into the Thursday close. Markets hold this point so far this week. Additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bounce Holds

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 6406.50 @ 07:35 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 6240.03 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6230.96 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg

Prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6349.16. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6230.96, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Fresh Lows

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.88 @ 07:45 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $65.53/65.06 - Low Aug 8 / Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed Friday. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. 

WTI TECHS: (U5) Pierces Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $64.11 @ 07:46 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $62.77 - Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level at the close. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. 

GOLD TECHS: Soft Start

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3363.2 @ 07:47 BST Aug 11 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold is lower early Monday, however the price continues to benefit from the recent soft NFP print and broad USD weakness. This returns prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3333.3, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.            

SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.883 @ 07:48 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the unconstructive price action into the end of July. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.822 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.