MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Equity Trend Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Equity Trend Condition Intact

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.                
• GBPUSD traded higher Monday, extending the recovery from 1.3140, the May 12 low. A bullish engulfing candle on May 13 highlights a bullish reversal signal. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. USDJPY continues to trade below the May 12 high and the pair maintains a softer tone. The latest pullback signals the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.                
• A bearish corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0. A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.90, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. 
• Bund futures continue to trade above last week’s low print. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the recent impulsive sell-off strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposed 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1293/1381 High May 9 / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1243 @ 06:00 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 1.1102/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD continues to trade above last week’s low and recent weakness appears corrective. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1102, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend and highlight a stronger reversal. Key trend signals still highlight an uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook 

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 3: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3404 High May 19   
• PRICE: 1.3373 @ 06:14 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3126 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD traded higher Monday, extending the recovery from 1.3140, the May 12 low. A bullish engulfing candle on May 13 highlights a bullish reversal signal. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3126, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. 

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows  

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8457 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8413 @ 06:31 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

EURGBP is trading at its recent lows. A bearish theme remains in play. The cross has recently cleared 0.8457, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. The 0.8400 handle has been pierced, a continuation lower would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection. Key near-term resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Has Breached The 20-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• RES 1: 146.23 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 144.46 @ 06:47 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 144.27/143.45 50.0% of Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg / Low May 8      
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY continues to trade below the May 12 high and the pair maintains a softer tone. The latest pullback signals the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22. A stronger reversal lower would expose 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 145.18, has been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Key Support 

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:18 GMT May 20
• SUP 1: 162.25/15 50-day EMA / Low May 19      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high and the cross continues to trade at its latest lows. The pullback is considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6416 @ 07:54 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 0.6360 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6360, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present 

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4021 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3949 @ 08:02 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch 1.4024, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.4111, the Apr 4 high.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle                         

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.67 Intraday high                     
• PRICE: 130.52 @ 05:37 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 129.72/13 Low May 19 / 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

Bund futures continue to trade above last week’s low print. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. An extension higher would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86 next, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for an extension towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 129.13, the May 15 low.                                            

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Recovery Extends                   

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.880/118.950 Intraday high / High May 12                                     
• PRICE: 118.810 @ 05:50 BST May 20 
• SUP 1: 118.420 Low May 19        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery from last week’s low in Bobl futures signals a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A continuation higher would open 118.950 next, the May 12 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                                     

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.320/335 20-day EMA / High May 12                  
• PRICE: 107.280 @ 06:10 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

Despite recent gains, a  bearish theme in Schatz futures remains intact for now. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 107.335, the May 12 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play                    

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 92.53 High May 9      
• RES 2: 92.20 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 92.03 High May 16                            
• PRICE: 91.50 @ Close May 17
• SUP 1: 90.86 Low May 19                                          
• SUP 2: 90.47 Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    
• SUP 4: 89.42 1.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - May 2 price swing     

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the recent impulsive sell-off strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposed 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would pave the way for an extension towards 90.47, the Apr 11 low. Resistance to watch is 92.30, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would be bullish and signal a potential reversal.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 120.20 @ Close May 19 
• SUP 1: 119.18/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase does signal potential for a pullback. Key support at 119.18, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, a continuation of the latest bounce would refocus attention on key resistance at 120.72, the May 8 high. A break of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Approaching Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
• RES 1: 5467.00 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 5452.00 @ 06:23 BST May 20 
• SUP 1: 5355.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5251.88/5190.67 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 5055.00 Low Apr 30        
• SUP 4: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support  

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5190.67, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 Intraday high                                     
• PRICE: 5957.00 @ 07:25 BST May 20 
• SUP 1: 5837.25/5693.1 High Mar 25 / 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5693.1, the 50-day EMA.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Intact For Now  

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.42/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $65.28 @ 07:11 BST May 20
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are unchanged. The trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on key resistance at $66.42, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, the Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Gains Considered Corrective      

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.90/63.44 - 50-day EMA / High May 13  
• PRICE: $61.93 @ 07:20 BST May 20 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.90, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. 

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle                               

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3256.6/3347.5 - 20-day EMA / High May 9        
• PRICE: $3214.8 @ 07:26 BST May 20
• SUP 1: $3121.0 - Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing  

A bearish corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3171.7, has also been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3256.6, the 20-day EMA.    

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support             

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.174 @ 08:07 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

Silver continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low (pierced). A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.