MNI Daily Technical Analysis - Bullish Equity Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Head North  

• In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s appreciation reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme and opens the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5669.26, the 50-day EMA. A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Gains this week reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher opens 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5171.52, the 50-day EMA.                
• In FX, EURUSD continues to trade above Monday's low. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals highlight an uptrend. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1094, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break. Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3110, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. {JN} USDJPY remains below Monday’s high and the pair is trading lower, today. The latest pullback underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low. First support to watch is 145.16, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high.                
• On the commodity front, a corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal has traded lower this week. $3202.0, the May 1 low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3168.0, has been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3265.4, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, a downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $63.46, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.           
• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the bounce from Thursday’s low. The recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A continuation higher would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86 next, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for an extension towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support is 129.13, the May 15 low. Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The move down exposes 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and open 90.47, the Apr 11 low. On the upside, the strong rally from Thursday’s low eases bearish pressure for now. Resistance to watch is at 92.34, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bullish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Intact               

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1266/1381 High May 14 / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1202 @ 06:00 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.1094/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD continues to trade above Monday's low. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals highlight an uptrend. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1094, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 3: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3402/3444 High May 6 / High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3360 High May 14   
• PRICE: 1.3324 @ 06:24 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3110 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3110, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. 

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact 

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8461 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8413 @ 06:34 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 0.8400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

A bearish theme is EURGBP remains in play - for now. The cross has cleared 0.8461, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Attention is on 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 0.8400 and below. Key near-term resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Support AT The 20-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
• RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• PRICE: 145.39 @ 10:24 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 144.92 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY remains below Monday’s high and the pair is trading lower, today. The latest pullback underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low. First support to watch is 145.16, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off 
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance          
• RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 1: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024
• PRICE: 162.85 @ 07:04 GMT May 16
• SUP 1: 162.21 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY has pulled back from its recent high. The move down is for now, considered corrective. The latest bullish extension paves the way for a climb towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 162.21, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal. This would open 161.60 initially, the May 6 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6425 @ 07:50 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 0.6354 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6354, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition 

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4026 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3944 @ 07:59 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone for now. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 6 reinforces the bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4026, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Intact For Now                        

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.53 20-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 130.22 @ 05:38 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 129.13 Low May 15             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

A short-term bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and Thursday’s gains are for now considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.47. This signals scope for a deeper retracement A resumption of the bear leg would open 128.60, the Apr 9 low and a key support. It is still possible that the move down since Apr 22 is a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 130.53, the 20-day EMA.                                           

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                 

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.676/118.872 50- and 20-day EMA values                                     
• PRICE: 118.580 @ 05:50 BST May 16 
• SUP 1: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15       
• SUP 2: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 117.600 Low Mar 28 
• SUP 4: 117.410 Low Mar 27      

For now a strong bearish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s extension strengthens the near-term bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and pierced 118.105, 50.0% of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run. A resumption of weakness would expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 118.872, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a potential reversal.                     

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play                                    

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.330 20-day EMA                 
• PRICE: 107.225 @ 06:14 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 107.070 Low May 13 
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

A sharp sell-off on Monday in Schatz futures strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper corrective retracement. The contract has pierced 107.090, 50.0% of the rally between Mar 6 - Apr 7. A clear break of this level would expose the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.330, the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA would be bullish and signal a potential reversal.                                                          

GILT TECHS: (M5) Impulsive Sell-Off Strengthens A Bearish Theme                    

• RES 4: 93.59 High May 8  
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.34 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 91.95 High May 12                            
• PRICE: 91.47 @ Close May 15
• SUP 1: 90.96 Low May 15                                          
• SUP 2: 90.92 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally
• SUP 3: 90.47 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 4: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    

Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The move down exposes 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and open 90.47, the Apr 11 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 91.95, the May 12 high. A firmer resistance however is at 92.34, the 20-day EMA.                                

 BTP TECHS: (M5) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 119.71 @ Close May 15 
• SUP 1: 119.10/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase signals potential for a pullback. A key support at 119.10, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. A continuation of Thursday’s bounce would refocus attention on key resistance at 120.72, the May 8 high. A break of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (M5) Corrective Bounce  

• RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2  
• RES 2: 111-22   High May 7 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 110-27   20-day EMA
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-17+ @ 11:29 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 109-18+ Low May 15  
• SUP 2: 109-08   Low Apr 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 108-21   Low Feb 19  

Treasury futures maintain a bearish tone and the latest bounce is for now, considered corrective. Support at 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, has been cleared. The breach exposes a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 111-22, the May 7 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal. First resistance is at 110-27, the 20-day EMA.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trading At Its Recent Highs               

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
• RES 1: 5440.00 High Mar 25 and 26
• PRICE: 5408.00 @ 06:24 BST May 16 
• SUP 1: 5214.46/5171.52 20- and 50-day EMA values                      
• SUP 2: 5055.00 Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support        
• SUP 4: 4664.00 Low Apr 10   

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. Gains this week reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5171.52, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trading At Its Latest Highs                  

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5952.50 Intraday high                                   
• PRICE: 5949.25 @ 10:22 BST May 16 
• SUP 1: 5669.26 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s appreciation reinforces current conditions. Price also continues to trade at its latest highs. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5669.26, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Intact  

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.49/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $64.42 @ 07:05 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on key resistance at $66.49, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, the Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Trading Below Resistance     

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $66.41/71.76 - High Apr 4 / 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $63.46/90 - 50-day EMA / High May 13  
• PRICE: $61.57 @ 07:17 BST May 16 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $63.46, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. 

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle                              

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3265.4/3347.5 - 20-day EMA / High May 9        
• PRICE: $3222.4 @ 07:21 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $3121.0 - Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing  

A corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal has traded lower this week. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1 low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3168.0, has been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3265.4, the 20-day EMA.    

SILVER TECHS: Support Holds Firm For Now             

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.357 @ 08:05 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

Silver is trading closer to its recent lows. A bullish theme however, remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low (pierced). A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.