MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Equity Condition Holds

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Equity Condition Persists

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5779.53. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend.                 
• A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and last week’s move down reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA at 0.8449, is intact. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162.30, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish. The pair traded higher initially yesterday, and cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a triangle breakout and marks a resumption of the uptrend.
• Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish. WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA.
• The recovery in Bund futures that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Phase Remains In Play                   

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg    
• PRICE: 1.1375 @ 06:08 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 1.1271 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1143/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is trading just ahead of its latest highs. Trend conditions are bullish and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 1.1143, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 
• PRICE: 1.3551 @ 06:23 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 1.3444/3351 High Apr 28 and 29 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3189/40 50-day EMA / Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the pair traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. The bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a Fibonacci retracement. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First support lies at 1.3351, the 20-day EMA.   

EURGBP TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8449 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8397 @ 06:45 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 0.8380 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and last week’s move down reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA at 0.8449, is intact. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and shift attention to resistance at 0.8541, the May 2 high. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a move towards 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.49/145.73 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.25 @ 06:53 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 142.12 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. Support at 142.36, the May 6 low. Has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and the next key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.73, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.  

EURJPY TECHS: Has Breached The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 163.41/64.07 High May 22 / 15 
• PRICE: 162.91 @ 07:56 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 161.09 Low May 23      
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162..30, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. This would open 160.99, the Apr 22 low. Clearance of this level would expose 160.01, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high. First resistance is 163.41, high May 22.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High MAy 26  
• PRICE: 0.6485 @ 07:34 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 0.6423 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6376/57 50-day EMA / Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish. The pair traded higher initially yesterday, and cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a triangle breakout and marks a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6376, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal.  

USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend  

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3984/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3882 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3746 @ 07:58 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 1.3686 Low May 26   
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme. The pair has traded through support at 1.3751, the May 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 1.3600 handle while further out, the move down opens 1.3420, the Sep 25 ‘24 low. Initial resistance is 1.3882, the 20-day EMA.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Outlook Remains Bullish                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.94 High May 23                     
• PRICE: 130.88 @ 05:45 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

The recovery in Bund futures that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Initial resistance is last Friday’s high of 130.94. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact                     

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 119.250 High May 23                                     
• PRICE: 119.110 @ 05:57 BST May 27 
• SUP 1: 118.390 Low May 22        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance.  On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Has Cleared Resistance                                     

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.550 High May 7 and last Friday’s high                   
• PRICE: 107.380 @ 06:25 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 107.195/070 Low May 22 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and resistance at 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, has been cleared. The break signals a stronger reversal. This exposes 107.550, the May 7 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a resumption of the recent bear leg would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Corrective Bounce                      

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87 High May 20 and a key near-term resistance                              
• PRICE: 91.00 @ Close May 23
• SUP 1: 90.46 Low May 23                                            
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.                                 

BTP TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                                     

• RES 4: 122.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 3: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 2: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing 
• RES 1: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance              
• PRICE: 120.87@ 08:02 BST May 27 
• SUP 1: 119.84 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.34/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14      
• SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10   

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Key support to watch lies at 119.34, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens the 121.00 handle next.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bullish Structure                 

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5392.00 @ 06:35 BST May 27 
• SUP 1: 5255.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5230.62 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5230.62, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5880.75 @ 07:19 BST May 27 
• SUP 1: 5756.50/5719.58 Low May 23 / 50-day EMA and key support
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5779.53. A key support lies at 5719.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) M/T Trend Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.13/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $64.53 @ 07:06 BST May 27
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are unchanged and trade closer to their recent highs. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.13, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would open $58.00, the Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Reversal Signal Still In Play       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.71/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21   
• PRICE: $61.50 @ 07:17 BST May 27 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a reversal signal. 

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend                                 

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3365.9 - High May 23        
• PRICE: $3326.3 @ 07:23 BST May 27
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.7 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 7 price swing  

Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance              

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
• PRICE: $33.079 @ 08:02 BST May 27
• SUP 1: $31.651 -  Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.