MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle in USDCAD Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in USDCAD Remains Intact

• A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Oct 10 appears corrective - for now.  Price has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6609.91, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract remains above key support at 5487.08, the 50-day EMA.
• The latest recovery in EURUSD appears to be a short-term correction, for now. A bear theme remains in place following the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for a test of 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. A short-term bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact - a correction. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement is allowing this overbought set-up to unwind. A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4300.00 handle next. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move down last week resulted in a break of support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A number of important Fibonacci retracement points have been cleared, the most recent being 130.05, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s strong impulsive gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has recently cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high and a key hurdle for bulls.  

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 1.1672 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.1656 @ 06:17 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The latest recovery in EURUSD appears to be a short-term correction, for now. A bear theme remains in place following the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for a test of 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Initial firm resistance is 1.1671, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal a reversal.         

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance     

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3453/3527 50-day EMA / High Oct 1 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3413 @ 06:34 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 1.3317/3249 Low Oct 15 / 14
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact and for now, the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.3280, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. A key resistance to watch is 1.3451, the 50-day EMA.            

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA             

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8689 @ 06:44 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 0.8677/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to monitor lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8677. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing    
• RES 1: 152.61/153.27 High Oct 14 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.06 @ 07:05 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 150.51 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 150.03 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 148.72 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 146.98 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A short-term bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact - a correction. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement is allowing this overbought set-up to unwind. The next important support lies at 150.03, the 20-day EMA, a break of it would expose the 50-day EMA at 148.72. On the upside, clearance of 153.27, the Oct 10 high, would resume the uptrend and open 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point.  

EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Continue To Highlight A Bull Cycle 

• RES 4: 180.12 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 176.29 @ 07:37 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 175.09 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart 
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend, and the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A reversal higher would open 175.00, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.09, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6554 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6503 @ 08:02 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

A bear theme in AUDUSD remains intact. However, Tuesday’s recovery highlights a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle formation. If correct, it signals the end of the bear leg that started Sep 17. Note too that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, and this highlights a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6554, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.4037 @ 08:06 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 1.3949/3877 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3806 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3877, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3949.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Bull Wave Extends               

• RES 4: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance  
• RES 3: 130.41 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing  
• RES 2: 130.27 High Jun 20
• RES 1: 130.18 High Oct 15    
• PRICE: 130.07 @ 05:56 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 129.44 High Sep 10       
• SUP 2: 128.93 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 128.77 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A number of important Fibonacci retracement points have been cleared, the most recent being 130.05, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg. This signals potential for an extension towards key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 128.93, the 20-day EMA.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Continues To Appreciate    

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.818 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Aug 15 bear leg (cont.)   
• RES 2: 118.774 2.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 8 - 9 price swing  
• RES 1: 118.700 High Oct 15    
• PRICE: 118.650 @ 05:44 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 118.330/118.057 Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1   
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A strong rally in Bobl futures so far this week reinforces the current uptrend that started Sep 25. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 118.400, the Sep 8 and 10 high. This break strengthens a bullish condition and sights are on 118.774 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support lies at 118.057, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would allow an overbought condition to unwind.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme    

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont.)  
• RES 3: 107.247 38.2% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont.)
• RES 2: 107.225 High Aug 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.220 High Oct 14  
• PRICE: 107.190 @ 05:01 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 107.135/063 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact following recent gains. The contract has breached 107.910, the Oct 5 and 8 high, strengthening a bullish condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 107.225 next, the Aug 27 high and the next key resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 107.063, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would undermine the uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play         

• RES 4: 93.30 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 2: 92.72 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 1: 92.51 High Oct 15 
• PRICE: 92.43 @ Close Oct 16
• SUP 1: 91.60/91.13 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction 
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support  

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s strong impulsive gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has recently cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The breach opens 92.72 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.13, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High     

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 121.93 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont)
• PRICE: 121.57 @ Close Oct 15
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level         
• SUP 2: 120.26 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and Wednesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. This week’s rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. Sights are on 121.73 next, the Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont). Initial support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Primary Trend Direction Remains Up  

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 5608.00 @ 06:33 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 5497.00 Low Oct 14  
• SUP 2: 5487.08 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract remains above key support at 5487.08, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger is 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.         

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish     

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6766.75/6812.25 High Oct 15 / High Sep 9 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 6721.00 @ 07:22 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 6609.91 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Oct 10 appears corrective - for now.  Price has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6609.91, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Sequence         

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.88 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $62.42 @ 07:06 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: $61.50 - Low Oct 14 
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on weakness towards $60.85, the May 30 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. First resistance is at $65.88, the 50-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Downtrend Intact   

• RES 4: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
• RES 1: $62.30 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $58.74 @ 07:16 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: $57.68 - Low Oct 14 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move down last week resulted in a break of support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low. This highlights an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the move down opens $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, key resistance is at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. First resistance is at $62.30, the 50-day EMA.     

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends        

• RES 4: $4365.9 - 3.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4317.7 - 3.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4300.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4242.1 - Intraday high                
• PRICE: $4224.2 @ 07:19 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: $4006.5 - Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: $3889.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 4: $3695.8 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4300.00 handle next, and $4317.7, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $3919.6, 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Trading Below Tuesday’s High For Now    

• RES 4: $54.567 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $54.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $53.546  - High Oct 14
• RES 1: $53.278 - Intraday high     
• PRICE: $52.781 @ 08:16 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: $49.677/47.786 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $43.996 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high on Tuesday, however, price action was volatile and silver is off its latest high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $47.786, the 20-day EMA.