MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle in Stocks Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in Stocks Intact

• The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                  
• Weakness in GBPUSD Thursday resulted in price moving through support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3387. The breach strengthens the current short-term bear cycle - a correction. The trend set-up in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Recent weakness in AUDUSD still appears corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at 0.6683, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6637. 
• The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact for now and the rally earlier this week reinforces a bull theme. The move lower from Wednesday’s high appears corrective - for now.
• Bund futures have traded higher this week, resulting in a breach of resistance at 128.29 the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, the move above the EMA suggests scope for an extension near-term. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and Wednesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high.  

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact   

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1683/1765 20-day EMA / High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1609 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.1598/93 61.8% of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 leg / Low Jan 15
• SUP 2: 1.1549 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.1512 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 1.1491 Low Nov 21  

EURUSD traded lower on Thursday, breaching support at 1.1618, the Jan 9 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower strengthens the bear theme and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1598 (pierced), the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.1549, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 1.1683, the 20-day EMA.           

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3495/3568 High Jan 13 / 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3382 @ 06:30 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.3355 38.2% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg  
• SUP 2: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
• SUP 3: 1.3289 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3223 61.8% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg

Weakness in GBPUSD Thursday resulted in price moving through support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3387. The breach strengthens the current short-term bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.3312, the Dec 17 low. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.3495, the Jan 13 high. A move above this short-term hurdle would highlight a potential reversal.     

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8723 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8698 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8674 @ 06:48 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

The trend structure in EURGBP is bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8723, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.  

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 160.21 2.236 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 3.000 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 159.60 2.000 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing 
• RES 1: 159.45 Jan 14 cycle high
• PRICE: 158.39 @ 06:57 GMT Jan 16 
• SUP 1: 157.20/155.83 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

The trend set-up in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. This  maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on the 160.00 handle next,  a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 155.83, the 50-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are Still On The Bull Channel Top 

• RES 4: 187.04 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low 
• RES 3: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 185.77 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 185.57 High Jan 14
• PRICE: 183.69 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 183.47 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 182.64 Low Jan 8 
• SUP 3: 181.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 180.50 Low Dec 8 

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and this week’s fade off highs appears corrective in nature. Initial support around the 20-day EMA, at 183.66, has been pierced. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 181.94, the Jan 15 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 187.04, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. The bull trigger is 185.57, the Jan 14 high.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 0.6872 38.2% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 L/T downtrend  
• RES 3: 0.6858 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6795 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6767 High Jan 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6701 @ 16:04 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 0.6664 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6637 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6593 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 0.6553 Low Dec 3  

Recent weakness in AUDUSD still appears corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at 0.6683, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6637. The area between the two EMAs still remains a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of the uptrend would open 0.6795 next, a Fibonacci projection.   

USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To Its Gains

• RES 4: 1.4023 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg     
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3920 High Jan 9 / 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3894 @ 08:15 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.3854/3827 50- and 20-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 1.3752 Low Jan 6 
• SUP 3: 1.3701 Low Jan 2 
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in place and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.3854, and a clear break of this average highlights a stronger reversal. This opens 1.3950 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 1.3827, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would instead highlight a possible reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA                      

• RES 4: 129.24 High Dec 1   
• RES 3: 128.89 61.8% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg   
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 
• RES 1: 128.49 High Jan 14 & 15           
• PRICE: 128.37 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 16 
• SUP 1: 127.70 Low Jan 9            
• SUP 2: 127.13/126.75 Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support
• SUP 4: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures have traded higher this week, resulting in a breach of resistance at 128.29 the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, the move above the EMA suggests scope for an extension near-term, towards 128.89, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.70, the Jan 9 low. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.                    

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Corrective Cycle Still In Play         

• RES 4: 116.960 High Dec 1      
• RES 3: 116.805 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 10 bear leg 
• RES 2: 116.720 High Dec 4    
• RES 1: 116.610 High Jan 14     
• PRICE: 116.480 @ 06:14 GMT Jan 16 
• SUP 1: 116.240 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 115.920/720 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.600 Round number support

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish. However, for now, a corrective bull cycle remains in play and Wednesday’s gains reinforce the current bull theme. This signals scope for a climb towards 116.805, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 116.240, the Jan 9 low. A breach of this support would highlight a potential reversal.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase            

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 106.896 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg    
• RES 1: 106.885 High Jan 14
• PRICE: 106.825 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 106.790 Low Jan 9 and a key near-term support  
• SUP 2: 106.725 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and the bull cycle since Dec 10 still appears corrective. However, recent gains highlight a stronger short-term upward cycle. A continuation higher would open 106.896 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and bear trigger at 106.630, the Dec 10 low. First key support to watch lies at 106.790, the Jan 9 low.               

GILT TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Intact                    

• RES 4: 93.36 1.382 proj of the Nov 19 - 27 - Dec 16 price swing 
• RES 3: 93.21 2.000 proj of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing      
• RES 2: 93.06 1.382 proj of the Nov 19 - 27 - Dec 16 price swing
• RES 1: 92.95 High Jan 14      
• PRICE: 92.48 @ Close Jan 15
• SUP 1: 91.99 Low Jan 9       
• SUP 2: 91.77 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 90.70 Low Jan 2      
• SUP 4: 90.50 Low Dec 16 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and Wednesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 93.06 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at 91.99, the Jan 9 low. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 91.77. A break of the average would signal a possible reversal.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Extends      

• RES 4: 121.87 2.000 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 121.58 1.764 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 2: 121.37 High Nov 13
• RES 1: 121.24 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 121.16 @ Close Jan 15
• SUP 1: 120.48/119.45 20-day EMA / Low Dec 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

This week’s gains in BTP futures reinforce the short-term bull theme. The recent breach of resistance at 120.59, the Dec 29 high, and a key short-term resistance, signals scope for a continuation of the bull leg and opens 121.37 next, the Nov 13 high. Initial support to watch lies at 120.41, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible bearish development and reversal.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Bullish Condition Intact       

• RES 4: 6134.00 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing     
• RES 3: 6100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6086.99 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 6072.00 High Jan 14 & 15         
• PRICE: 6045.00 @ 06:36 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 5986.00/5906.21 Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5793.10 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5689.00 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 5655.00 Low Dec 1     

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The 6000.00 handle has been breached, sights are on 6086.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5889.39, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.      

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Trend Theme Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 7089.25 1.000 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
• RES 1: 7036.25 High Jan 13   
• PRICE: 7003.25 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 6952.17/6898.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger  

The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 7036.74, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA (pierced) - currently at 6952.17. The 50-day EMA lies at 6898.30.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H6) Support To Monitor Lies At The 50-Day EMA           

• RES 4: $70.06 - High Jul 30 
• RES 3: $68.58 - High Sep 26 
• RES 2: $67.92 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 23 - Dec 16 bear leg  
• RES 1: $66.82 - High Jan 14  
• PRICE: $63.83 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 16 
• SUP 1: $62.41/59.75 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 5   
• SUP 2: $58.53 - Low Dec 16 
• SUP 3: $58.27 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $57.87 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing

Brent futures have traded higher this week, extending the bull cycle that started on Dec 16. Despite the pullback from Wednesday’s high, a bull theme remains in place for now. Initial support to watch lies at $62.41, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would undermine the bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards $68.58, the Sep 26 high.          

WTI TECHS: (G6) Monitoring Support         

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $62.59 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 16 downleg   
• RES 1: $62.36 - High Jan 14     
• PRICE: $59.31 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $58.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 3: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing  

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact for now and the rally earlier this week reinforces a bull theme. The move lower from Wednesday’s high appears corrective - for now. Price has traded through a key S/T resistance at $61.25, the Oct 25 high. This strengthens the bull phase and highlights a stronger reversal of the recent downtrend. Sights are on $62.59 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $58.64, the 50-day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence        

• RES 4: $4799.9 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing 
• RES 3: $4715.3 - 2.000 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 2: $4696.3 - 0.764 proj of the Nov 18 - Dec 26 - Dec 31 swing
• RES 1: $4643.0 - High Jan 14                    
• PRICE: $4607.4 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 16 
• SUP 1: $4459.2 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $4407.9 - Low Jan 8
• SUP 3: $4299.3 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $4204.4 - Low Dec 11

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4696.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4459.2, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would signal the start of a corrective phase.                          

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Intact    

• RES 4: $99.219 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 31 - Jan 7 - 8 price swing
• RES 3: $96.226 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 31 - Jan 7 - 8 price swing
• RES 2: $94.374 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 31 - Jan 7 - 8 price swing
• RES 1: $93.752 - High Jan 15  
• PRICE: $90.943 @ 08:19 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $77.917 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $73.853 - Low Jan 8   
• SUP 3: $67.460 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $60.815 - Low Dec 12

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and this week’s rally reinforces these conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Price has traded through the $90.00 handle. This paves the way for an extension towards $94.374 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $76.390, the 20-day EMA.