MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Brent Gains Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Brent Gains Deemed Corrective

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6336.02. The primary trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. However, the contract has breached 5372.85, the 50-day EMA.
• Tuesday’s sell-off in GBPUSD undermines the recent bull theme. The pair has traded through a key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next. USDJPY traded higher Tuesday. For now, the pair remains inside its range and resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high.                             
• Brent futures have traded higher this week. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal.             
• Bund futures are trading lower this week. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and the contract is approaching support at 128.64, the Aug 15 low and a bear trigger. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions. The contract has started today’s session on another bearish note. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1631 @ 06:10 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

Despite Tuesday’s sell-off in EURUSD, the trend set-up remains bullish and the pullback appears corrective. Note that the pair has recently pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1612. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key medium-term support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.1743, the Aug 22 high. A break of it would be a bullish development.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat 

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• RES 1: 1.3742 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3372 @ 06:27 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.3340 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

Tuesday’s sell-off in GBPUSD undermines the recent bull theme. The pair has traded through a key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to reinstate a bull theme. Initial resistance is at 1.3742, the 20-day EMA.        

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Resistance       

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8702 @ 06:48 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.8628/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, resulting in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at  support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish threat.  

USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Resistance   

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.94/149.12 High Sep 2 / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 148.62 @ 07:09 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 147.12/146.21 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY traded higher Tuesday. For now, the pair remains inside its range and resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat, and open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in  August. 

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger  

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.41/97 High Sep 2 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.93 @ 07:15 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 170.83 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.83.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed   

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:05 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3815 High Sep 02
• PRICE: 1.3797 @ 08:12 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.3722 Low Aug 7 and a pivot support  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. However, the latest corrective pullback has resulted in a breach through support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3775. A clear break of this handle signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3722, the Aug 7 low. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low also highlights a potential early reversal signal. A continuation higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Approaching The Bear Trigger   

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8 
• RES 3: 130.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 2: 129.71/90 50-day EMA / High Aug 28
• RES 1: 129.42 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 128.71 @ 05:50 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures are trading lower this week. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and the contract is approaching support at 128.64, the Aug 15 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and highlight a range breakout - the contract has traded in a range since April. This would open 128.40 next, the Apr 9 low. Key short-term resistance is at 129.90, the Aug 28 high.      

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Pullback Extends   

• RES 4: 18.030 High Jul 22 and a reversal trigger      
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.453/630 50-day EMA / High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 117.100 @ 05:58 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 117.040/116.950 Low Aug 25 / 15 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again, yesterday, extending the reversal from 117.630, the Aug 28 high. The move down signals a resumption of the downtrend and attention turns to key short-term support and the bear trigger at 116.950, the Aug 15 low. A break of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle and open 116.840, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at the Aug 28 high of 117.630.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Southbound    

• RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24  
• RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 107.139 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
• RES 1: 107.063/125 20-day EMA / High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 106.975 @ 06:14 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 106.960 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 107.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains have been corrective. The bear trigger at 106.970, the Aug 25 low, has been breached, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 106.928, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 107.125, the Aug 27 high.    

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact  

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.16/90.84 High Sep 2 / High Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 89.49 @ 08:22 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 89.42 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 89.00 Round number support  
• SUP 4: 88.84 2.00 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing    

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions. The contract has started today’s session on another bearish note. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend. Sights are on 89.34 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.52 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 119.40 @ Close Sep 3
• SUP 1: 119.30 Low Sep 2         
• SUP 2: 118.87 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 118.24 1.618 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 25 - Aug 5 price swing  

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. However, for now, a bear cycle is in play. The move down this week reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has traded through a key support at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. The clear break of this level highlights a range breakout and reinforces a bear cycle. This opens 118.87, the May 21 low. Initial firm resistance is at 120.52, the 50-day EMA.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 5568.00 High Mar 6
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 2: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22
• RES 1: 5392.75 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 5317.00 @ 06:42 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 5280.00 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 3: 5250.02 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

The primary trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. However, the contract has breached 5372.85, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5392.75, the 20-day EMA.  

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6523.00 High Aug 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 6433.50 @ 07:23 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 6371.75 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6336.02. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact For Now    

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $68.94 @ 07:10 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have traded higher this week. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Corrective Phase Extends  

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $65.35 @ 07:20 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to be a correction. This short-term corrective cycle remains in play and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat    

• RES 4: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3623.1 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing             
• PRICE: $3533.3 @ 07:28 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: $3470.3 - Low Sep 2  
• SUP 2: $3396.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3360.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3600.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3396.2, the 20-day EMA.               

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains 

• RES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $40.977 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $40.817 @ 08:16 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: $38.804 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $37.787 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal has traded sharply higher this week. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.804, the 20-day EMA.