MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bounce Eases Gilt Pressure

Price Signal Summary – Bounce Off Low Eases Bearish Gilt Pressure

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. The primary trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish, however a corrective bear cycle remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5370.73, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat.
• A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present following Tuesday’s sell-off and the recovery from Wednesday’s low appears corrective. The pair has traded through key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. USDJPY resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above it. A clear break of 148.78 would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29.
• Gold is unchanged, it remains in a clear bull cycle and trades closer to its recent highs. This week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. Tuesday’s move down highlights a possible early reversal signal and the end of the corrective phase.
• Bund futures have recovered from their lows on Wednesday. For now, gains appear corrective and resistance to watch is 128.87, the Aug 28 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 129.04. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play, however, a strong bounce from Wednesday’s low eases bearish pressure for now. Note that a move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind and appears corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1669 @ 06:23 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

The trend set-up in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Note that the pair has recently pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1615. It remains intact, however, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key medium-term support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.1743, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of it would be a bullish development.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present 

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• RES 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3451 @ 06:33 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.3333 Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present following Tuesday’s sell-off and the recovery from Wednesday’s low appears corrective. The pair has traded through key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to reinstate a bull theme. Initial resistance is at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA.        

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact       

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8675 @ 06:44 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 0.8631/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A rally this week  resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.  

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 149.14/149.12 High Sep 3 / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 148.17 @ 07:06 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 147.21/146.21 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 145.36 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above it. A clear break of 148.78 would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. A move higher would also undermine the recent bear threat, and open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would instead resume a downtrend that started in August. 

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.41/97 High Sep 2 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 173.12 @ 16:24 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 170.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.90.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus   

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6533 @ 07:59 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery highlights a bullish theme and signals the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume a bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3845 High Sep 04
• PRICE: 1.3805 @ 08:03 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. An extension higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. A break of this level would instead reinstate the recent bear theme and expose 1.3709, a Fibonacci retracement.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance    

• RES 4: 129.23 High Aug 23 
• RES 3: 129.04 High AUg 14   
• RES 2: 128.87 High Aug 28 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 128.68 High Sep 4 
• PRICE: 128.63 @ 05:59 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 128.25 Low Sep 4      
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures have recovered from their lows on Wednesday. For now, gains appear corrective and resistance to watch is 128.87, the Aug 28 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 129.04 initially, the Aug 14 high. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies remain in a bear mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger is 127.61, the Sep 3 low.       

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bounce Appears Corrective   

• RES 4: 118.400 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 118.260 High Aug 28 and a key short-term resistance   
• RES 2: 118.170 High Aug 29 
• RES 1: 118.100 High Sep 4 
• PRICE: 118.010 @ 06:06 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Sep 4    
• SUP 2: 117.690 Low Sep 2    
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Aug 25  and a key short-term support   
• SUP 4: 117.481 123.6% retracement projection of Aug 25 - 28 rally  

Bobl futures have recovered from their latest low, however, a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness signals a resumption of the downtrend and attention is on short-term support at 117.630, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle and open 117.481, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 118.260, the Aug 28 high.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Outlook    

• RES 4: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: 107.180 High Aug 29 
• RES 2: 107.175 High Sep 1 
• RES 1: 107.140 High Sep 4 
• PRICE: 107.090 @ 06:19 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 107.000 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 106.983 138.2% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally 
• SUP 4: 106.963 150.0% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and open the 107.00 handle. Note that on the continuation chart, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 107.225, the Aug 27 high.     

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition   

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.84/87 High Aug 28 and 29 / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 90.74 @ 08:09 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 89.36 Low Sep 3 
• SUP 2: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 89.00 Round number support  
• SUP 4: 88.84 2.00 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing    

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play, however, a strong bounce from Wednesday’s low eases bearish pressure for now. Note that a move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind and appears corrective. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 90.84 (pierced), the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 89.22 next, a Fibonacci projection.  

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Breach Of Support Highlights Bearish Threat      

• RES 4: 120.61 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 120.20 High Aug 15  
• RES 2: 119.83 High Aug 21 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 119.54 High Sep 4
• PRICE: 119.35 @ Close Sep 5
• SUP 1: 118.36 Low Sep 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. However, for now, a bear cycle is in play. The move down earlier this week reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has traded through a key support at 118.75, the Jul 25 low. The clear break of this level highlights a range breakout and reinforces a bear cycle. This opens the 118.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is 119.83, the Aug 21 high.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 5568.00 High Mar 6
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 2: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22
• RES 1: 5384.28 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 5373.00 @ 06:35 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 5280.00 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 3: 5250.02 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

The primary trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish, however a corrective bear cycle remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5370.73, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5384.25, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be bullish.   

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High  

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6585.83 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6529.25 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 6529.00 @ 07:23 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 6447.06/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 6347.53 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6447.06, the 20-day EMA.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Still Looking For Weakness    

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.83 @ 07:08 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have pulled back from Tuesday’s high. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Trend Signals Remain Bearish 

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.27 @ 07:16 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. Tuesday’s move down highlights a possible early reversal signal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North    

• RES 4: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3623.1 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3578.5 - High Sep 3             
• PRICE: $3550.2 @ 07:23 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $3470.3 - Low Sep 2  
• SUP 2: $3424.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3375.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold is unchanged, it remains in a clear bull cycle and trades closer to its recent highs. This week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3600.00. Initial firm support lies at $3424.5, the 20-day EMA.               

SILVER TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: $42.606 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $42.323 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing 
• RES 2:$42.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $41.467 - High Sep 3      
• PRICE: $40.826 @ 08:10 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: $39.190 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $38.029 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal is holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. Resistance at $39.530, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on the $42.00 handle next. Initial support to watch is $39.190, the 20-day EMA.