MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bonds in Rally Mode

Price Signal Summary - Bonds in Rally Mode

• A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6602.32, and last Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The key support zone to monitor is 5552.07 - 5478.12, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact and price continues to trade closer to last week’s low print. The pair has breached a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. A bullish trend condition in USDJPY remains intact and Friday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and today's fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg, signals scope for a deeper retracement.        
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s very strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4200.00 handle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Last Friday’s move down confirmed a resumption of the bear leg - support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low, has been breached.
• Bund futures continue to appreciate. This week’s early gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high and a key short-term resistance. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Today’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price is approaching resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 1.1680 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.1585 @ 06:18 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A bear mode in EURUSD remains in place and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and a support at 1.1646, the Sep 25 low, exposes 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend, suggesting the move down is likely a correction - for now. Initial firm resistance is 1.1779, the Oct 1 high.        

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3433/3527 20-day EMA / High Oct 1 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3345 @ 06:34 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.3262 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact and price continues to trade closer to last week’s low print. The pair has breached a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement. A clear break of 1.3280 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement, would open key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3433, the 20-day EMA.            

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support Around The 50-Day EMA            

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 06:48 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 0.8675/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The latest bear leg in EURGBP appears corrective and trend signals remain bullish. Note that the cross has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8675. A continuation lower and a clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing    
• RES 1: 153.27 High Oct 10
• PRICE: 151.74 @ 07:03 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 150.92 High Sep 26  
• SUP 2: 149.72 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 148.50 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 146.86 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A bullish trend condition in USDJPY remains intact and Friday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. The next important support lies at 149.72, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, clearance of last Friday’s 153.27 high, would resume the uptrend and open 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support 

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.91 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 175.88 @ 07:15 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.87 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. First key support to watch lies at 174.87, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A reversal higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle Low

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6558 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6467 @ 07:59 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 0.6461 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and today's fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg, signals scope for a deeper retracement towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6558, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.     

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure  

• RES 4: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 1.4075 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• RES 1: 1.4059 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.4055 @ 08:06 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.3928/3863 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3799 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s firm start reinforces current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3863, 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Continues To Appreciate              

• RES 4: 130.41 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing  
• RES 3: 130.27 High Jun 20   
• RES 2: 130.05 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 129.77 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 129.71 @ 08:02 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 129.13/ Low Oct 10 / 128.67 50-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures continue to appreciate. This week’s early gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthens a bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher with sights in 130.05 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that moving average studies are crossing into a bull-mode position, a bullish signal. First important support lies at 128.67, the 50-day EMA.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Breaches A Key Resistance     

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.818 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Aug 15 bear leg (cont.)   
• RES 2: 118.680 2.000 proj of the Oct 6 - 8 - 9 price swing  
• RES 1: 118.560 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 118.540 @ 08:29 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 118.150/117.943 Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1   
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A strong rally in Bobl futures on Friday followed by a bullish start to this week’s session reinforces the current uptrend that started Sep 25. The break higher has resulted in a breach of resistance at 118.400, the Sep 8 and 10 high. This break strengthens a bullish condition and sights are on 118.680, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support lies at 117.943, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends    

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont.)  
• RES 3: 107.247 38.2% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont.)
• RES 2: 107.225 High Aug 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.200 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 107.195 @ 08:34 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 107.085/037 Low Oct 10 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 106.965/920 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Friday and the contract has started this week on a bullish note. Today’s gains have delivered a print above 107.910, strengthening a bullish condition. This signal scope for a climb towards 107.225 next, the Aug 27 high and the next key resistance point.  Initial firm support to watch lies at 107.037, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would undermine the uptrend.         

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme         

• RES 4: 92.84 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11 (cont)      
• RES 2: 92.06 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 91.68  @ 08:22 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 90.90 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction 
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support  

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Today’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price is approaching resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open the 92.00 handle. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Breakout     

• RES 4: 121.93 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 121.73 High Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.38 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 120.89 @ 07:14 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 119.85 20-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 119.07 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 3: 118.36 Low Sep 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 118.00 Round number support

BTP futures futures rallied Friday and the contract has started this week on a firm bullish note. Price is through a key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. This opens the 121.00 handle and 121.38, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 119.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible short-term reversal.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Testing The Key Support Zone   

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 5543.00 @ 06:44 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 5509.00 Low Oct 10  
• SUP 2: 5478.12 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The key support zone to monitor is 5552.07 - 5478.12, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.         

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective     

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6718.50/6812.25 Intraday high / High Sep 9 
• PRICE: 6651.00 @ 07:28 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 6602.32 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Sep 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6602.32, and last Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Outlook         

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $66.20 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $63.04 @ 07:10 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $62.00 - Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish threat in Brent futures remains present and last Friday’s move down reinforces this theme. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend - support at $64.00 has been breached. The move down also maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on a weakness towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Resumes Its Downtrend   

• RES 4: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30
• RES 1: $62.62 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $59.26 @ 07:21 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $58.22 - Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Last Friday’s move down confirmed a resumption of the bear leg - support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low, has been breached. This highlights an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the move down opens $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial key resistance is at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.    

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Extends         

• RES 4: $4365.9 - 3.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4317.7 - 3.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4200.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4179.70 - Intraday high                
• PRICE: $4176.2 @ 06:23 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $4006.5 - Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: $3862.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3793.2 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $3677.6 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s very strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4200.00 handle, and $4239.7, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3862.6, 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Off Its Intraday High    

• RES 4: $53.546  - Today’s intraday high
• RES 3: $52.689 - 4.500 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $52.386 - 4.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $52.000 - Round number resistance     
• PRICE: $51.763 @ 08:13 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $46.791 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $43.308 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded to a fresh cycle high today, however, price action is volatile and the metal is off its intraday high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $46.791, the 20-day EMA.