MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Gilt Theme Persists

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Gilt Theme Persists

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend. This would open 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance and the bull trigger at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high.
• The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. USDJPY continues to weaken as the retracement from last week’s high print extends. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 147.60, the 50-day EMA. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6554. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527. 
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43.
• Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. Short-term gains appear corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. Gilt futures remain above their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook 

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1820 High Sep 23  
• PRICE: 1.1764 @ 06:03 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.1684/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback between Sep 17 - 25, appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1684. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear  resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Resistance  

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
• RES 1: 1.3481 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3465 @ 06:17 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.           

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On The Bull Trigger          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8735 @ 06:43 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 0.8667/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is unchanged and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8667, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA          

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 147.53 @ 06:59 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 147.60/46 50-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18  
• SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY continues to weaken as the retracement from last week’s high print extends. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 147.60, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose pivot support at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, Aug 1 high.        

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 175.13 High Sep 29    
• PRICE: 173.27 @ 07:13 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 172.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s pullback appears corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Support to watch lies at 172.46, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support    

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6628/29 High Sep 24/30 
• PRICE: 0.6609 @ 07:36 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6554. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play  

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20 
• RES 1: 1.3959 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.3914 @ 07:55 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.3885/3814 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bullish theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains have resulted in the breach of a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3814, the 50-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle        

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.49 @ 05:37 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 128.29/127.88 Low Sep 29 / 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. Short-term gains appear corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is 128.84, 61.8% of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Intact   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 117.943 76.4% retracement of the Sep 8 - 25 bear leg  
• RES 1: 117.890 High Sep 30   
• PRICE: 117.770 @ 05:47 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 117.680/470 Low Sep 29 / 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures have recovered from their recent lows. The latest bounce appears corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact and on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure Intact  

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.975 @ 05:53 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains appear corrective. Last week’s move lower delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Outlook      

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.84 @ Close Sep 30
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures remain above their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Still Looking For Gains      

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.84 @ Close Sep 30
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North    

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5575.00 High Mar 3 (cont.) and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 5564.82 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 5561.00 High Sep 30      
• PRICE: 5536.00 @ 06:34 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 5452.19/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance and the bull trigger at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 5564.82, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 5452.19, the 20-day EMA.      

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22  
• PRICE: 6703.00 @ 07:23 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 6656.22 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10 
• SUP 3: 6541.51 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6481.75 Low Sep 3 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend. This would open 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA, at 6656.22. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6541.51.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Threat        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.12 @ 07:09 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $64.20 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures traded higher last week, however, the contract has pulled back from its recent peak. A resumption of gains would suggest scope for a continuation of a bullish corrective cycle and expose key resistance at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. The medium-term outlook remains bearish and sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $64.50, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.     

WTI TECHS: (X5) Resistance Intact For Now  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $62.49 @ 07:17 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.   

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat      

• RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3900.0 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3875.5 - Intraday high              
• PRICE: $3857.1 @ 07:24 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29  
• SUP 2: $3682.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3628.1 - Low Sep 18
• SUP 4: $3548.7 - 50-day EMA  

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                 

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: $49.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $47.857 - 2.618 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $47.251 - 2.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing       
• PRICE: $46.907 @ 08:01 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $44.601/43.287 - Low Sep 26 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $40.856 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28   
• SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $47.857 next, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $48.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $43.287, the 20-day EMA.