MNI Daily Technical Analysis - Bear Threat In Oil Futures

Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present   

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6589.32, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now - and yesterday’s rally reinforces this theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low.                                           
• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains earlier this week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1664. The 20-day EMA lies at 1.1727. A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3789, the Jul 1 high and a key resistance. Initial support to watch is 1.3495 (pierced), the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose 1.3433, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. USDJPY has recovered sharply from Wednesday’s intraday low. A bullish candle pattern on Tuesday - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. On Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.                            
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a 1.382 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3566.6, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.                     
• In the FI space, Bund futures  remain below their latest highs. The move down is considered corrective. The next support to watch is 128.25 (pierced), the Sep 16 low. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A reversal higher and a resumption of gains would reinstate the recent bullish theme that signals potential for a climb towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bull cycle in Gilt futures gapped lower today, extending the pullback from recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.

Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 1.1775 @ 06:12 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.1727/64 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains earlier this week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1664.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Trends Set-Up Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3505 @ 10:28 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.3495/83 50-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3433 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3789, the Jul 1 high and a key resistance. Initial support to watch is 1.3495 (pierced), the 50-day EMA.         

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Structure         

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8744 High Aug 7
• RES 1: 0.8729 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 0.8713 @ 10:31 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 0.8643/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Recent weakness in EURGBP has been corrective and this week’s recovery confirms the end of the corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8643, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Reversal Signal       

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.27/149.14 High Sep18 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 147.59 @ 07:15 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support 
• SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3 

USDJPY has recovered sharply from Wednesday’s intraday low. A bullish candle pattern on Tuesday - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. On Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.      

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Intact    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 173.98 @ 07:59 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 172.92/171.75 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 172.92, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support   

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6707 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 0.65596 @ 08:02 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 0.6589/6542 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the current pullback is considered corrective - for now. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6586, the 20-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3848 High Sep 15 
• PRICE: 1.3816 @ 08:05 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD earlier this week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback     

• RES 4: 130.27 High Jun 20  
• RES 3: 130.05 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear cycle    
• RES 2: 129.66 High Jul 22 
• RES 1: 129.13/50 High Sep 17 / High Aug 5 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 128.33 @ 10:34 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 128.25/18 Low Sep 4 / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures remain below their latest highs. The move down is considered corrective. The next support to watch is 128.25 (pierced), the Sep 16 low. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A reversal higher and a resumption of gains would reinstate the recent bullish theme that signals potential for a climb towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.         

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Support   

• RES 4: 118.635 1.500 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing     
• RES 3: 118.561 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 118.469 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 118.090/400 High Sep 18 / High Sep 8 and 10 
• PRICE: 117.750 @ 10:37 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 117.690 Low Sep 2   
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Aug 25  and a key short-term support   
• SUP 3: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing   
• SUP 4: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing

Bobl futures are trading below their recent highs. The latest pullback has exposed support at 117.690, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential short-term reversal and instead suggest scope for a climb towards 118.400, the Sep 8 and 10 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme    

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.010 @ 06:01 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 106.965 Low Sep 12   
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Approaching First Support    

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.82 High Sep 11
• PRICE: 90.83@ Close Sep 19
• SUP 1: 90.65 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Gilt futures have gapped lower today, extending the pullback from recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.    

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed       

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.96 @ Close Sep 18
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 114-16+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-29   High Sep 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-00 @ 19:51 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 112-23+/112-15+ Intraday low / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-07   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures have traded lower today as the corrective pullback extends, but is off its intraday lows. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-07 and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5558.30 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger  
• RES 1: 5505.00 Intraday high     
• PRICE: 5486.00 @ 10:43 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 5366.00 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now - and yesterday’s rally reinforces this theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.      

 E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing  
• RES 3: 6750.50 2.000 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 6748.50 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing    
• RES 1: 6719.75 High Sep 18  
• PRICE: 6692.75 @ 07:21 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 6589.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6536.50 Low Sep 8 
• SUP 3: 6477.53 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6589.32, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present      

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.28 @ 07:09 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain above their recent lows. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness  

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.33 @ 07:07 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North     

• RES 4: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3707.6 - High Sep 17             
• PRICE: $3647.8 @ 07:21 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11  
• SUP 2: $3566.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3464.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3566.6, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend

• RES 4: $43.272 - 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $43.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $42.972 - High Sep 16       
• PRICE: $41.992 @ 08:08 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $40.838 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.251- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The metal traded higher last week, delivering a fresh cycle high. The extension earlier this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.838, the 20-day EMA.