MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle in Gilts Playing Out

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle in Gilts Playing Out

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position. This has strengthened the current bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bullish theme remains intact. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north. The pair has traded above key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3510. This week’s bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play. The move down signals scope for a continuation of the downleg and sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 144.88, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Recent gains in USDCAD gains appear to have been a correction and the trend condition remains bearish. Furthermore, this week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position.
• Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures remain below their recent highs. The recovery that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86, the May 9 high. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s downtrend reinforces the bearish theme. Support at 90.92, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally, has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook                  

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1381 High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1319 @ 06:16 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.1248 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1124/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. Trend conditions are bullish and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1381 next, the May 2 - 6 high. Key support lies at 1.1124, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound  

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3469 High May 21  
• PRICE: 1.3454 @ 06:30 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.3307 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3158/40 50-day EMA / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north. The pair has traded above key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a clear bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3158.   

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8454 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8413 @ 06:50 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and Thursday’s move down reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA at 0.8454, is intact. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day average is required to conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Support   

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.88/15.98 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.40 @ 07:10 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 142.81 Low May 22
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

This week’s bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play. The move down signals scope for a continuation of the downleg and sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 144.88, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. A breach of 142.36, would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 145.98, 50-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Challenging Key Support  

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.28 @ 16:09 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 162.30/161.81 50-day EMA / Low May 22      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY is trading closer to recent lows. The pullback from 165.21, the May 13 high, is - for now - considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.30, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6435 @ 08:03 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 0.6367/57 50-day EMA / Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish. The recent consolidation phase appears to be a triangle formation - a bullish continuation signal. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6367, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound  

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.4005/16 50-day EMA / High May 12 / 13
• RES 1: 1.3915 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3818 @ 08:14 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

Recent gains in USDCAD gains appear to have been a correction and the trend condition remains bearish. Furthermore, this week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch is 1.4005, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Remains Above Support                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.75 High May 20                     
• PRICE: 130.03 @ 05:55 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 129.13 Low May 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

Bund futures remain below their recent highs. The recovery that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A resumption of gains  would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for a move towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and resume the recent bear cycle.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                     

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.950 High May 12 / 20                                     
• PRICE: 118.690 @ 06:04 BST May 23 
• SUP 1: 118.390 Low May 22        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A resumption of gains would open 118.950, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Intact For Now                                     

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.335 High May 12 / 20                  
• PRICE: 107.300 @ 06:48 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent highs. Resistance to watch is 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would instead signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (M5) Approaching Key Support                      

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 92.53 High May 9      
• RES 2: 92.13 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 90.92/91.82 Low May 20 / 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 90.47 @ Close May 22
• SUP 1: 90.11 Low May 22                                          
• SUP 2: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: 89.42 1.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - May 2 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number resistance      

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s downtrend reinforces the bearish theme. Support at 90.92, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally, has been cleared. This break paves the way for an extension towards 89.99, the Apr 9 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 92.13, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would be bullish and signal a potential reversal.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support                                     

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 119.66 @ Close May 22 
• SUP 1: 119.25/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase continues to signal potential for a pullback. Key support to watch lies at 119.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.72, the May 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Sights Are On Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5431.00 @ 07:01 BST May 23 
• SUP 1: 5355.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5302.55/5219.78 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bullish theme remains intact. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5219.78, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Pullback Considered Corrective                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20                                     
• PRICE: 5847.50 @ 07:26 BST May 23 
• SUP 1: 5775.58/5715.60 20- and 50-day EMA values                        
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position. This has strengthened the current bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5715.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) M/T Trend Outlook Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.24/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $64.00 @ 07:10 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a short-term bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.24, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Reversal Signal       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.75/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21   
• PRICE: $60.78 @ 07:20 BST May 23 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Wednesday’s price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal. 

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bull-Mode Position                                

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9        
• PRICE: $3326.9 @ 07:26 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $3267.9/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.7 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 7 price swing  

Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat            

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high                                         
• PRICE: $33.197 @ 08:15 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.