MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle Holds for USD/JPY

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle Holds for USD/JPY

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent high. A print above 5993.50 last week, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and a recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend.
• The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3418, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a deeper correction. A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and sights are the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish. The pair traded lower Monday and pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                  
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9 still appears corrective. A key resistance area to monitor is $62.51, the 50-day EMA.           
• A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade at its recent highs. The latest recovery suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. Gilt futures have recovered from their recent lows and strengthened this week, however, gains are still considered corrective and this has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact                     

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1455 High Jun 03
• PRICE: 1.1369 @ 06:03 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 1.1313 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1190/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact despite yesterday’s pullback. The recent breach of  1.1419, the May 26 high, confirms a resumption of the trend and opens 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1190, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3515 @ 06:15 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 1.3418 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3255 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3418, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3255. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.    

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9  
• RES 1: 0.8441/59 50-day EMA and key resistance / High May 21 
• PRICE: 0.8414  @ 06:51 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 0.8356 Low May 29 
• SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing

A downtrend in EURGBP remains intact. A key resistance at 0.8442, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break of it is required to highlight a stronger reversal. This would expose 0.8541. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8356, the May 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook   

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 144.38/146.28 Intraday high / May 29 high   
• PRICE: 144.17 @ 06:58 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and sights are the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. Moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high.    

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.26 High May 29 
• PRICE: 163.75 @ 07:53 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 162.58/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. The latest recovery from the May 23 low, signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains    

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26  
• PRICE: 0.6462 @ 08:03 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound    

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3938/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3829 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3720 @ 08:12 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 1.3675 Low Jun 2      
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish. The pair traded lower Monday and pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3938 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3829.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.72 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.49 High Jun 3                       
• PRICE: 131.23 @ 05:42 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 130.39 May 29 low              
• SUP 2: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.02 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade at its recent highs. The latest recovery suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A continuation higher would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. First support lies at 130.39, the May 29 low.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading At Its Recent Highs                       

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 119.280 High May 30 and Jun 3 
• PRICE: 119.170 @ 05:53 BST Jun 4  
• SUP 1: 118.791/390 50-day EMA / Low May 22
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and continue to trade at their recent highs. The recovery since May 14  highlights a reversal and the end of the Apr 22 - May 15 corrective cycle. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Exposed                                        

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.405/550 High May 27 and 30 / High May 7 and 23
• PRICE: 107.350 @ 06:04 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 107.255 Low May 29   
• SUP 2: 107.195/070 Low May 22 / 13 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     

Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle that started May 13, remains intact. The recent breach of 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, continues to signal a stronger reversal and has exposed 107.550, the May 7 / 23 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a deeper pullback would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger is 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance                        

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87/92.11 High May 20 / High Jun 3 
• PRICE: 91.92 @ Close Jun 3
• SUP 1: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

Gilt futures have recovered from their recent lows and strengthened this week, however, gains are still considered corrective and this has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.                                 

BTP TECHS: (M5) Fresh Cycle High                                        

• RES 4: 122.70 2.000 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• PRICE: 121.27 @ Close Jun 3 
• SUP 1: 120.72 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.71/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
• SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent gains reinforce bullish conditions. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 119.71, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support lies at 120.39, the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Still Bullish

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5389.00 @ 06:12 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 534.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5262.93 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and a recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5262.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat 

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6008.00 High May 29 
• PRICE: 5978.00 @ 07:28 BST Jun 4  
• SUP 1: 5850.75/5765.62 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent high. A print above 5993.50 last week, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5765.62, the 50-day EMA.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Challenging Resistance    

• RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $65.29/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: $65.50 @ 07:35 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are trading at their recent highs. The medium-term trend condition is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains still appear to be corrective. Resistance at $65.29, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a confirmed reversal lower would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low. First support is $62.09, the May 30 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Pierces Resistance        

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.51/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21
• PRICE: $63.22 @ 07:19 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9 still appears corrective. A key resistance area to monitor is $62.51, the 50-day EMA. It has again been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Intact                                  

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3392.2 - High Jun 3         
• PRICE: $3352.4 @ 07:25 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: $3302.4/3225.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger to watch has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook                 

• RES 4: $35.728 - 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $35.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $34.789 - High Jun 2 
• PRICE: $34.435 @ 08:15 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: $32.859/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Monday confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The rally resulted in the breach of a number of important resistance points. This signals scope for an extension towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would mark an important medium-term bullish development. Key short-term support is at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal.