MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle Firms in USDJPY

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle Firms in USDJPY

• Short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective - for now. Price has recently found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6612.26, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up - for now - and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract remains above key support at 5493.86, the 50-day EMA.
• A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact and for now, the latest recovery appears corrective. However, the pair has pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3450. A short-term bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact - a correction - and today’s print below the 20-day EMA, at 150.06, strengthens the short-term bearish condition. The trend outlook in USDCAD is unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down this week reinforces the current bearish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.                        
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract has traded a fresh cycle high. The impulsive nature of the latest rally paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s strong impulsive gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high today and recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high.   

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

• Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPYWe refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1730 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.1715 @ 06:14 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.1602/1542 Low Oct 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The latest recovery in EURUSD has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.1672. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the corrective pull back between Sep 17 - Oct 9, may be over. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A continuation higher would open 1.1775 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low.          

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3487 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.3461 @ 06:42 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.3317/3249 Low Oct 15 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact and for now, the latest recovery appears corrective. However, the pair has pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3450. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and expose resistance at 1.3527, the Oct 1 high and pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and bear trigger.             

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish             

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8705 @ 06:45 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 0.8678/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to monitor lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8678. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends 

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing    
• RES 1: 152.61/153.27 High Oct 14 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.92 @ 06:25 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 149.86 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 148.79 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 147.82 High Oct 3  
• SUP 4: 147.03 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A short-term bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact - a correction - and today’s print below the 20-day EMA, at 150.06, strengthens the short-term bearish condition. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 50-day EMA, at 148.79. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 153.27, the Oct 10 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 180.23 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 175.38 @ 07:54 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 175.16 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart 
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recently, the cross cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A reversal higher would open 175.00, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.16, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6551 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6464 @ 08:03 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

Tuesday’s recovery in AUDUSD continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle formation. If correct, it signals the end of the bear leg that started Sep 17. Note that moving average studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6551, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14, would cancel the reversal signal and reinstate a bear threat.       

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16
• PRICE: 1.4056 @ 08:08 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 1.3959/3884 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3810 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

The trend outlook in USDCAD is unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3884, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3959.     

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Approaching Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 130.59 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 130.55 @ 05:50 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 129.88/129.44 Low Oct 16 / High Sep 10       
• SUP 2: 129.03 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 128.82 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract has traded a fresh cycle high. The impulsive nature of the latest rally paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.03, the 20-day EMA.               

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High    

• RES 4: 119.780 High Apr 22 (cont)       
• RES 3: 119.600 High May 7 (cont)  
• RES 2: 119.250 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Aug 15 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 1: 119.000 Round number resistance   
• PRICE: 118.940 @ 06:18 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 118.560 Low Oct 16  
• SUP 2: 118.330/118.112 Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 117.880 Low Oct 9   
• SUP 4: 117.710 Low Oct 6 

A strong rally in Bobl futures so far this week reinforces the current uptrend that started Sep 25. The contract has traded higher again, today, as the impulsive bull wave extends. Sights are on the 119.00 handle next. A break of this level would open 119.25, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 118.112.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends     

• RES 4: 107.400 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.365 High Jul 7 (cont) 
• RES 2: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 107.290 High Oct 16  
• PRICE: 107.285 @ 06:32 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 107.150/075 Low Oct 15 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 107.030 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 106.995 Low Oct 8 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact following recent gains. The contract has breached 107.910, the Oct 5 and 8 high, strengthening a bullish condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 107.348 next, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Note that recent gains also highlight the fact that the contract is overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at 107.075, the 20-day EMA.          

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play         

• RES 4: 93.76 High Jul 1 (cont)   
• RES 3: 93.41 High Jul 2 (cont)       
• RES 2: 93.30 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 93.17 High Oct 16 
• PRICE: 93.03 @ 08:19 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 92.07 Low Oct 15      
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: 91.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13    

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s strong impulsive gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high today and recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break opens 93.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.28, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Theme Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 121.80 @ 07:17 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level         
• SUP 2: 120.03 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 5604.00 @ 06:51 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 5497.00 Low Oct 14  
• SUP 2: 5493.86 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains  up - for now - and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract remains above key support at 5493.86, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger is 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.         

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective For Now     

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6766.75/6812.25 High Oct 15 / High Sep 9 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 6625.00 @ 07:25 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 6612.26 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

Short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective - for now. Price has recently found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6612.26, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Intact         

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.70 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $60.86 @ 07:04 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $60.00 - Psychological round number  
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on the psychological $60.00 handle where a break would open $58.50, the May 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $65.70, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend  

• RES 4: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
• RES 1: $62.11 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $57.18 @ 07:11 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $57.50 - Low May 30 
• SUP 2: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.05 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down this week reinforces the current bearish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $57.50 next, the May 30 low, where a break would open $54.89, the May 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $62.11, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 26 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends        

• RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $4379.9 - Intraday high               
• PRICE: $4362.9 @ 07:27 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $4140.8 - Low Oct 15 
• SUP 2: $3858.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 4: $3695.8 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $3958.4, 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Bull-Wave Extension    

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.567 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing    
• PRICE: $53.830 @ 08:20 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: $51.400/48.400 - Low Oct 15 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $44.397 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded to a fresh cycle high again, today. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $54.567, a Fibonacci projection, and the $55.00 handle. Note that the trend is in overbought territory, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is $48.400, the 20-day EMA.