MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUDUSD Uptrend Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Uptrend Remains Intact

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend. This would open 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance and the bull trigger at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 5564.82.
• The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at 1.1682. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high print. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Note that last week the pair did breach support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6552.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has started the week on a bullish note, trading to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high.
• Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows - this appears to be a correction for now. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Gilt futures have recovered from their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1755/1820 High Sep 29 / 23  
• PRICE: 1.1733 @ 06:17 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.1646 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at 1.1682. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear  resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Remain Intact 

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
• RES 1: 1.3482 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3440 @ 06:30 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.           

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Trigger Remains Exposed          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8729 @ 06:38 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.8665/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is in consolidation mode but continues to trade closer to its recent highs, and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8665, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support          

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 148.27 @ 07:01 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 148.08/147.59 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18  
• SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high print. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 147.59, the 50-day EMA. Pivot support has been defined at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.        

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Theme Remains Bullish    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 175.13 High Sep 29    
• PRICE: 173.78 @ 07:57 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 173.72/172.42 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.72, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook   

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
• RES 1: 0.6628 High Sep 24 
• PRICE: 0.6599 @ 08:01 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Note that last week the pair did breach support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6552. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, Sep 24 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20 
• RES 1: 1.3959 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.3912 @ 08:07 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.3885/3810 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bullish theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent gains have resulted in the breach of a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3810, the 50-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bounce        

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.64 @ 05:54 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 128.29/127.88 Low Sep 29 / 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows - this appears to be a correction for now. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.61, the 50-day EMA.            

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 117.943 76.4% retracement of the Sep 8 - 25 bear leg  
• RES 1: 117.839 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 117.810@ 06:08 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 117.680/470 Low Sep 29 / 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures traded lower last Thursday to a fresh cycle low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This suggests short-term gains are corrective. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure  

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.980 @ 06:18 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and short-term gains appear corrective. Last Thursday’s move lower delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Structure      

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.89 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures have recovered from their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Recent Weakness Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.00/120.74 High sep 19 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.79 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Set-Up    

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5575.00 High Mar 3 (cont.) and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 5564.82 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 5548.00 High Sep 29      
• PRICE: 5522.00 @ 06:38 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 5442.85/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance and the bull trigger at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 5564.82, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 5442.85, the 20-day EMA.      

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22  
• PRICE: 6714.25 @ 07:25 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 6647.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10 
• SUP 3: 6533.46 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6481.75 Low Sep 3 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend. This would open 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the contract has recently pierced initial support at the 20-day EMA, currently at 6647.54. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6526.11.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish M/T Structure        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.82 @ 07:10 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $64.20 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures traded higher last week, however, the contract has pulled back from its recent peak. A resumption of gains would suggest scope for a continuation of a bullish corrective cycle and expose key resistance at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. The medium-term outlook appears bearish and sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $64.50, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.     

WTI TECHS: (X5) Resistance Intact For Now  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.19 @ 07:23 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.   

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High      

• RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3900.0 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3871.7 - Intraday high              
• PRICE: $3865.3 @ 07:23 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $3717.6 - Low Sep 24  
• SUP 2: $3664.1 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3579.7 - Low Sep 8
• SUP 4: $3536.0 - 50-day EMA  

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has started the week on a bullish note, trading to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                 

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: $49.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $47.857 - 2.618 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $47.251 - 2.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing       
• PRICE: $46.666 @ 08:11 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $44.601/42.933 - Low Sep 26 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $40.619 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28   
• SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher on Monday as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $47.251 next, a 2.382 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards $47.857, the 2.618 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $42.933, the 20-day EMA.